SERIOUSLY!! FABIAN AN EC THREAT OR NOT?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
hurricanedude
Military Member
Military Member
Posts: 1856
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 9:54 am
Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
Contact:

SERIOUSLY!! FABIAN AN EC THREAT OR NOT?

#1 Postby hurricanedude » Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:04 pm

I'm not so sure the models are correct about the strength of the trough next week, so I still say Carolinas North should not let down there guard
0 likes   

User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#2 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:11 pm

No one should let their guard down ... we're still 7 days away from ANY impact IF Fabian is an EC threat or not ...

There are too many variables and too much uncertainty to say yes or no.

Right now all of the model guidance suggest Fabian, and I mean, all, do not make Fabian an EC threat but Fabian ... is definitely not a fish storm or a threat right now.

SF
0 likes   

Guest

#3 Postby Guest » Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:34 pm

Well im with Stormsfury on this one.................I have looked at alot of things (Besides the models) and i certainly do not think the eastcoast is out of the woods by any means!....................I have yet to see anything by the sats especially the water vapor that shows anything for atleast the next 3 days that will pick Fabian up towards the north or especially the NE.....................And the next possibility from that time on is only a slight possibility but will know more about this by tomorrow.......................Tomorrow imo is the day to start making better predictions on Fabian beeing a eastcoast threat or not!..................For now lets just say that i wouldnt dare let my guard down if i lived anywhere along the eastcoast (especially) from NC southward!
0 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#4 Postby Steve H. » Sun Aug 31, 2003 2:52 pm

Check out the 18Z tropical models. Screw up or truth :o
0 likes   

User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:

#5 Postby Colin » Sun Aug 31, 2003 3:37 pm

Nobody should let their guard down...if this does hit the EC, most people along the EC would feel the remnants...so we cannot take our eye of this one yet! :o
0 likes   

User avatar
jabber
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 688
Joined: Mon Mar 24, 2003 5:36 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC (former Boynton Beach, Fl)

#6 Postby jabber » Sun Aug 31, 2003 3:46 pm

I live in S. Florida and am not letting my guard down. 5 Days is a long time and things can change very quickly. Models, Recon flights are great but the tropics continue to have suprises to show.
0 likes   

Guest

#7 Postby Guest » Sun Aug 31, 2003 3:49 pm

Well Colin what you said Kinda sounds exacty like what i did just worded differently of course?
0 likes   

ColdFront77

#8 Postby ColdFront77 » Sun Aug 31, 2003 6:18 pm

Tomorrow is still too early to get any more information that we don't have now on a "potential generally direction" of Hurricane Fabian; even more so with the expected decrease in forward speed.

I wouldn't assume "remnants" of Fabian. The storm will have to weaken considerably to effect an area along the eastern seaboard as "remnants."
0 likes   

User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29113
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:

#9 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Aug 31, 2003 6:31 pm

Colin I think you mean the outer bands of Fabian if he moves up the East coast offshore.

We should have quite a bit more or at least better information on what the models think Fabian will do in the next few runs since they will be ingesting the data from the high level jet reconnaisance currently in progress.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image

User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:

#10 Postby Colin » Sun Aug 31, 2003 6:44 pm

Yes, David, you're right... ;)
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cycloneye, Google Adsense [Bot], jaguars_22, Sps123, USTropics and 47 guests