10/1/11 - 12z GFS loop
This afternoon's Euro has a low developing NE of the Bahamas in 216 hours.And by the way,Euro has a couple of EPAC storms.
216 hours

240 hours

Moderator: S2k Moderators
Macrocane wrote:The models are in pretty good agreement about the EPAC developments, meanwhile in the Atlantic:
-CMC, UKMET and NOGAPS have a broad low in 6 days.
-GFS and FIM start to develop a tropical cyclone in 10 days or so, but the tracks are very different with the GFS showing a faster system.
-ECMWF lowers the pressures in the Caribbean in the last frames.
cycloneye wrote:
GFS more slower at 18z.
KUEFC wrote:Quick question AJC3 and hope you have the patience to reply, as you know i am flying this coming saturday, can you see anything that would stop the flight? just wondering because as i am not all that clued up with these discussions etc, hope you can help because really starting to get a little paranoid about it now,
Rob Lightbown on October 3, 2011, 5:49 am
It appears that the weather will become quite “interesting” along the east coast of Florida from late this week through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend. An area of strong high pressure will anchor itself over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States late this week and continuing into this upcoming weekend. This will lead to a lowering of barometric pressures from the western Caribbean northeastward into the central and northwestern Bahamas. The latest ensemble guidance of the GFS and European models, as well as the Canadian model is showing the potential of a broad area of low pressure to develop in the southwestern Caribbean as early as Thursday or Friday. The European ensemble model seems to hint that this low pressure system may develop into a tropical or sub-tropical storm as it tracks north-northeastward to near the Cayman Islands by about Sunday or next Monday and then near western or central Cuba around next Wednesday. The operational counterpart of the European model forecasts that the development of a tropical or sub-tropical storm may occur further north near Andros and Grand Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday and then forecasts this potential storm to meander around south Florida right through the middle part of next week.
The GFS operational model develops the potential tropical/sub-tropical storm further offshore around next Monday and forecasts it to strengthen just off of the eastern North Carolina coast towards the end of next week, which then leads to the development of a second tropical/sub-tropical storm around October 16 or 17 which tracks across the northwestern Bahamas and right up the US East Coast as we get into October 18 and 19.
The pressure difference between any low pressure systems developing over the Florida Straits or the western Caribbean and this strong high pressure system over the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States will lead to strong easterly winds of 25 to 45 mph and very rough seas and riptides to develop across much of the Florida Peninsula starting late Thursday and continuing through this entire weekend. The strongest winds, heaviest rains and the likelihood of coastal flooding may be centered over central and northern Florida, roughly north of a line from Tampa to Vero Beach on Saturday, Sunday and Monday. These strong winds and heavy rains may then push northward into areas from South and North Carolina northward through the Mid-Atlantic states once we get into next Tuesday and next Wednesday.
So, everyone across the Florida Peninsula should be aware of the potential for several days of heavy rainfall, strong winds and coastal flooding & rip tides starting late Thursday and continuing right through this upcoming Columbus Day weekend.
KUEFC wrote:Miami NWS Discussion
EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BACK OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS THIS
WEEKEND...AND ARE SHOWING THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SO THE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN DRY
FROM ABOUT 850 MBS ON UP. THEREFORE...THE ONLY INCREASE WILL BE
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
IN PLACE.
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