ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Recon is now heading back, so they probably feel that they missed the true COC, pressure found now down to 1005mb.

Heading back home or into the system again?

Sorry, heading back to a COC.

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231944
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 25 20111023
193430 1609N 08155W 9885 00148 0054 +239 +232 021012 014 022 002 00
193500 1609N 08157W 9879 00153 0054 +235 +229 010013 014 028 012 00
193530 1609N 08159W 9880 00155 0057 +222 //// 002012 013 031 021 01
193600 1609N 08200W 9876 00158 0057 +217 //// 004009 009 031 014 01
193630 1609N 08202W 9880 00154 0058 +211 //// 004009 009 029 011 01
193700 1609N 08203W 9878 00156 0059 +212 //// 013009 009 034 013 01
193730 1609N 08205W 9880 00156 0059 +227 +224 003009 010 015 001 03
193800 1609N 08207W 9878 00159 0059 +230 +220 006010 010 013 000 00
193830 1608N 08208W 9879 00159 0059 +228 +223 357011 012 015 000 00
193900 1607N 08210W 9879 00158 0059 +230 +222 345011 012 014 001 00
193930 1607N 08211W 9874 00160 0058 +230 +218 349010 011 017 000 03
194000 1606N 08213W 9880 00156 0060 +233 +220 351012 013 017 001 00
194030 1606N 08214W 9884 00156 0061 +233 +222 352012 013 016 000 00
194100 1606N 08216W 9877 00161 0061 +233 +225 350013 014 016 000 00
194130 1605N 08218W 9881 00156 0061 +231 +228 342016 018 016 000 03
194200 1605N 08219W 9879 00161 0063 +231 +223 347017 017 016 000 00
194230 1604N 08221W 9877 00163 0062 +231 +222 353017 017 015 000 00
194300 1603N 08222W 9883 00158 0062 +230 +225 351018 019 018 000 00
194330 1602N 08223W 9877 00163 0063 +230 +226 351021 022 019 000 00
194400 1601N 08225W 9880 00160 0064 +229 +224 352022 022 021 000 00
$$

[NDG]

This time they found 1005mb lowest pressure near 16.1N & 81.9W
So perhaps a bit elongated circulation with 96L, now lets see if it has strong enough winds to be classified as a TD

[cycloneye]

It has to fight the dry air on both sides.

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962011_al182011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110231955
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[NDG]

Yeap, they just found some unflagged TD force winds.

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KNHC 231954
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 26 20111023
194430 1600N 08226W 9877 00163 0064 +230 +220 350023 024 023 001 00
194500 1559N 08228W 9880 00159 0063 +230 +220 352024 025 025 001 00
194530 1558N 08229W 9881 00159 0064 +231 +217 354024 025 024 001 00
194600 1557N 08230W 9885 00159 0066 +232 +220 339025 028 027 000 00
194630 1556N 08232W 9872 00169 0064 +232 +226 337027 027 027 000 00
194700 1555N 08233W 9878 00165 0065 +235 +226 336024 026 026 000 00
194730 1554N 08234W 9873 00169 0065 +235 +230 329023 023 025 000 00
194800 1553N 08236W 9881 00160 0065 +235 +229 330023 023 021 001 03
194830 1552N 08236W 9878 00163 0063 +230 +228 326024 024 026 000 03
194900 1550N 08235W 9880 00159 0061 +234 +224 324024 025 028 000 00
194930 1549N 08233W 9880 00158 0061 +235 +223 323024 024 027 000 00
195000 1548N 08232W 9877 00159 0059 +235 +225 320024 024 027 000 00
195030 1546N 08231W 9879 00155 0057 +235 +226 319023 024 027 000 03
195100 1545N 08229W 9879 00158 0058 +235 +222 318023 023 025 000 00
195130 1545N 08228W 9879 00158 0058 +235 +223 316023 023 025 000 00
195200 1544N 08226W 9877 00159 0058 +236 +224 316022 023 025 001 03
195230 1544N 08224W 9880 00156 0058 +238 +225 318021 021 023 000 00
195300 1543N 08222W 9880 00155 0057 +238 +226 319020 021 023 001 00
195330 1543N 08221W 9878 00155 0056 +237 +228 321021 022 023 000 03
195400 1543N 08219W 9888 00150 0057 +235 +225 329017 019 021 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

And there's the upgrade.

[JonathanBelles]

Yeap, they just found some unflagged TD force winds.

There is no such thing as TD force winds.

[NDG]

Somebody take over posting the recon's HDO, I have to get going.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yeap, they just found some unflagged TD force winds.

There is no such thing as TD force winds.

Generally 20-30 knot winds are good for TD. I've never seen a TD with less than 24 MPH winds.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Now the question is, what do they show for for 5 day cone? I think they stay conservative for the first advisory, staying at TS strength the entire time and a fifth day point SE of Cozumel. This isn't what I think will happen, just what I think the NHC will say based on current models and data.

[NDG]

Yeap, they just found some unflagged TD force winds.

There is no such thing as TD force winds.

Well, let me rephrase it, they found unflagged 31 mph winds, lol.

[cycloneye]

NRL already has header for TD 18.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232004
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 27 20111023
195430 1543N 08217W 9873 00158 0055 +234 +215 334015 017 020 001 00
195500 1543N 08216W 9877 00155 0055 +224 +217 332015 016 024 004 00
195530 1543N 08214W 9876 00154 0053 +226 +220 316018 018 025 003 03
195600 1543N 08212W 9880 00152 0052 +235 +221 306019 020 028 001 00
195630 1543N 08211W 9888 00145 0053 +238 +223 320017 018 023 001 03
195700 1544N 08209W 9874 00155 0051 +235 +220 327017 018 020 000 00
195730 1544N 08207W 9881 00149 0052 +237 +219 326017 018 020 002 00
195800 1544N 08206W 9876 00154 0052 +235 +221 325017 018 021 000 00
195830 1544N 08204W 9872 00154 0050 +235 +224 329015 016 019 000 00
195900 1544N 08202W 9880 00152 0055 +235 +226 323015 016 018 000 00
195930 1545N 08200W 9873 00163 0060 +240 +227 330013 014 020 000 00
200000 1545N 08159W 9881 00159 0063 +243 +229 337012 013 017 000 00
200030 1545N 08157W 9879 00161 0063 +246 +232 332009 010 013 000 00
200100 1546N 08155W 9883 00161 0064 +249 +232 335003 007 010 000 00
200130 1546N 08153W 9880 00163 0064 +250 +228 149007 009 008 000 00
200200 1546N 08151W 9880 00163 0063 +250 +228 151011 012 013 000 00
200230 1547N 08149W 9883 00158 0062 +250 +229 155013 014 013 000 00
200300 1547N 08148W 9880 00161 0063 +248 +230 156014 014 012 000 00
200330 1548N 08146W 9882 00160 0064 +245 +229 159014 014 012 001 00
200400 1548N 08144W 9880 00163 0065 +246 +229 166015 015 011 000 00
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

I'll take over. Meanwhlie, very interesting NW/SE wind switch just observed:
200100 1546N 08155W 9883 00161 0064 +249 +232 335003 007 010 000 00
200130 1546N 08153W 9880 00163 0064 +250 +228 149007 009 008 000 00

[psyclone]

as long it stays down in the carib and avoids the hostile winds to the north (and stays away from land), it could crank up. plenty of oceanic heat down there. I'm guessing the track will feature a slow northwest drift with perhaps and abrupt right turn with acceleration later in the period. will be interesting to see the nhc 5 day on this one.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

HWRF has a cat 8 for sfl...

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 232014
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 28 20111023
200430 1549N 08142W 9881 00164 0066 +250 +228 161015 015 009 001 00
200500 1549N 08141W 9879 00166 0067 +250 +226 160016 016 010 000 00
200530 1550N 08139W 9882 00164 0068 +250 +224 159016 016 014 000 00
200600 1550N 08137W 9878 00166 0068 +250 +223 164017 017 014 001 00
200630 1551N 08135W 9883 00163 0067 +251 +223 162018 019 017 000 03
200700 1553N 08134W 9879 00167 0068 +251 +224 156019 020 018 001 03
200730 1555N 08134W 9882 00165 0068 +255 +225 152020 021 019 000 00
200800 1557N 08135W 9877 00169 0067 +255 +227 152021 022 021 000 00
200830 1559N 08135W 9880 00166 0068 +255 +225 149021 022 021 000 00
200900 1601N 08135W 9878 00167 0068 +256 +225 146022 022 022 000 00
200930 1602N 08135W 9882 00165 0070 +259 +226 144022 022 021 000 00
201000 1604N 08135W 9880 00170 0071 +256 +228 142021 021 021 000 00
201030 1606N 08135W 9880 00170 0072 +256 +227 141021 021 020 000 00
201100 1608N 08136W 9880 00167 0070 +256 +229 136020 021 /// /// 03
201130 1609N 08137W 9880 00166 0070 +255 +230 124018 019 016 001 03
201200 1609N 08139W 9879 00170 0071 +257 +227 124017 018 017 000 00
201230 1609N 08141W 9880 00170 0072 +260 +221 126017 018 018 001 03
201300 1608N 08143W 9880 00170 0073 +259 +223 127016 016 018 000 03
201330 1607N 08144W 9882 00170 0075 +258 +223 135015 016 020 000 00
201400 1605N 08146W 9880 00173 0075 +255 +226 133015 016 019 000 00
$$
;

[SFLcane]

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF has a cat 8 for sfl...

The 12z HWRF has an 88kt storm for SFL, that's a Cat 2.