Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, two big weather headlines in Texas right now:

* Tornado reported to have struck Mall of the Mainland in Texas City. Building evacuated as per concerns of structural integrity after a partial roof collapse (as per Chron.com).

* And Midland has received 4-6 inches of snow from this storm thus far. Their official NWS total for the season is up to 14.4 inches...and counting. That's the new seasonal record...on Jan. 9th no less.

[Portastorm]

Some mets and well thought of amateurs on another message board are suggesting that the only winner (at least for the foreseeable future) of the -WPO, -AO will be Canada. While there is cross-polar flow, they argue that there is no mechanism to dislodge that air into the southern Plains, or much of the US for that matter. In fact, they point to the 240h European, which they claim depicts a Pacific firehouse jet (i.e., zonal flow) across the US.

I was informed that we need both west and east blocking to force the arctic air southward. However, another well-respected met told me you can't have both east and west blocking. I'm at a loss and am really frustrated with the lack of wintry weather. Someone talk me off the ledge.

The scenario you reference in your first paragraph is certainly plausible and could very well happen. I don't know if I'm the one to talk you off the ledge since I'm up there part of the time myself!

But that being said, I will just reiterate what I wrote over the weekend and that is that I am not trusting any computer models beyond 3-4 days. Any careful evaluation of the main cycle runs of the GFS/Euro/CMC for the last few days show widespread variability. And at this point, I'm highly skeptical of anyone or any scenario coming out and saying "oh, this is how it's going to shake out the next 2-3 weeks." My two pesos.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So what do the next 24 hours look like for North Texas? In Richardson, the last shower just passed, and the sun is actually peaking through the clouds as we speak. Looks like we are in the dry slot of the ULL. Will there be any backside precip or are we done?

[Ntxw]

So what do the next 24 hours look like for North Texas? In Richardson, the last shower just passed, and the sun is actually peaking through the clouds as we speack. Looks like we are in the dry slot of the ULL. Will there be any backside precip or are we done?

Dry slot right now for DFW. The ULL in west Texas will pivot through and more rain will develop, especially in the evening then continue until morning. Areas along and north of I-20 mostly.

FW

A REPRIEVE IN RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HRS...AS
CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS. SHOULD
SEE PREVAILING LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS THIS EVENING WITH VFR VSBYS AND
PATCHY -RA/-DZ.

UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. RA/ISOLATED
TS/CB CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONE LAST TIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND MID
MORNING TUESDAY.

UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING
WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KTS ALL AIRPORTS...WITH A GRADUAL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

[orangeblood]

Some mets and well thought of amateurs on another message board are suggesting that the only winner (at least for the foreseeable future) of the -WPO, -AO will be Canada. While there is cross-polar flow, they argue that there is no mechanism to dislodge that air into the southern Plains, or much of the US for that matter. In fact, they point to the 240h European, which they claim depicts a Pacific firehouse jet (i.e., zonal flow) across the US.

I was informed that we need both west and east blocking to force the arctic air southward. However, another well-respected met told me you can't have both east and west blocking. I'm at a loss and am really frustrated with the lack of wintry weather. Someone talk me off the ledge.

While it looks like there is a lot of zonal flow projected, there is some nasty cold air forecast across the northern Pacific into Western Canada. All it would take is a buckling of the jet with energy shooting across in the northern stream to pull some of that arctic air down.

Now, what we really need is blocking to crank up across Greenland dropping the strong Polar Vortex down into the Great Lakes and we're in business!!

[Rgv20]

HPC chimes in this afternoon with some interesting comments about the model runs:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
224 PM EST MON JAN 09 2012

12Z CYCLE UPDATE...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ALOFT...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...REMAIN UNRESOLVED
BEYOND DAY 5 GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MUCH FASTER GFS AND
THE SLOWER...ECMWF. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DOESNT CHANGE
MUCH...AND PROGS WERE NOT UPDATED FOR THE FINAL. THE THOUGHT IS TO
MAINTAIN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO DAY 4-5 IN THE NRN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM EJECTING SHORTWAVES ENEWD
ACROSS TEXAS...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST. UNLIKE THE
PRESENT SYSTEM...MODELS NEVER DEVELOP MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE WAVE...GIVEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCKED IN PLACE...QUITE STABLE AND AN OPEN GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR
MUCH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE/EXTENDED.

Can you guys in north Texas lend us some of that cold air for late week until the weekend??

[Turtle]

Wow, just last night 1/23 was showing 65 degrees for a high. Now it's showing 30s/40s! Bring it on!

[northtxboy]

Hello everyone!!! Been working in Bastrop but now I am home. Seems to be a slow start to winter. This time last year I thought I was going to freeze to death I havnt been up on the models yet but from reading what some of you are posting it doesnt sound too exciting. But we are getting rain which is a good thing, I would rather have cold rain and no snow than nothing at all. It seems that wxman57 is the winter grinch this year. I hate when he post cause 99.9.999% of the time he is right.. WHY CANT THAT MAN BE WRONG JUST ONCE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Portastorm is still depressed cause he has not got snow and he has to watch everyone else have fun with snow. We may want to keep a eye on him this year he may hang himself. Well I will start doing research and watchin models and give my own opinon on what I think will happen. Happy new year everone!!!

[WeatherNewbie]

Hello everyone!!! Been working in Bastrop but now I am home. Seems to be a slow start to winter. This time last year I thought I was going to freeze to death I havnt been up on the models yet but from reading what some of you are posting it doesnt sound too exciting. But we are getting rain which is a good thing, I would rather have cold rain and no snow than nothing at all. It seems that wxman57 is the winter grinch this year. I hate when he post cause 99.9.999% of the time he is right.. WHY CANT THAT MAN BE WRONG JUST ONCE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Portastorm is still depressed cause he has not got snow and he has to watch everyone else have fun with snow. We may want to keep a eye on him this year he may hang himself. Well I will start doing research and watchin models and give my own opinon on what I think will happen. Happy new year everone!!!

wxman57 has been wrong. 2 days after he made that post, dallas got 4 inches of snow. granted, i had to go back two years to find an instance of him being wrong.

[mushi-tan]

Posted on another board is the following graphic, which shows the temperature anomalies for all days during the January 15-25 period for the last 61 years during La Niña events with ENSO R3.4 anomalies in the -1.5°C to -0.7°C range, AO in the -2.00 to 0.00 range, and PNA in the -1.00 to +0.25 range:



As you can see, it was cold in Alaska and the Yukon (connecting to cold anomalies in northeastern Siberia) but above normal in the south central USA. According to the expert who posted that graphic, the closest analog years are 1954 and 1984, when very warm Februarys happened. The CFSv2 ensembles are also hinting at a warm February.

[Texas Snowman]

Welcome aboard Mushi-Tan. Who knows, those analog years may be right. You know, that sounds about like something that austinrunner was saying a few days ago. We'll see...

[wxman57]

Hello everyone!!! Been working in Bastrop but now I am home. Seems to be a slow start to winter. This time last year I thought I was going to freeze to death I havnt been up on the models yet but from reading what some of you are posting it doesnt sound too exciting. But we are getting rain which is a good thing, I would rather have cold rain and no snow than nothing at all. It seems that wxman57 is the winter grinch this year. I hate when he post cause 99.9.999% of the time he is right.. WHY CANT THAT MAN BE WRONG JUST ONCE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Portastorm is still depressed cause he has not got snow and he has to watch everyone else have fun with snow. We may want to keep a eye on him this year he may hang himself. Well I will start doing research and watchin models and give my own opinon on what I think will happen. Happy new year everone!!!

wxman57 has been wrong. 2 days after he made that post, dallas got 4 inches of snow. granted, i had to go back two years to find an instance of him being wrong.

Yep, must have missed that one.

I think I've had enough rain now. My gauge had 6.7" from 6am to 3pm today. Cars stalled out and abandoned on the various roads leading to my house. Quite a flood in the streets, at least.

[orangeblood]

Posted on another board is the following graphic, which shows the temperature anomalies for all days during the January 15-25 period for the last 61 years during La Niña events with ENSO R3.4 anomalies in the -1.5°C to -0.7°C range, AO in the -2.00 to 0.00 range, and PNA in the -1.00 to +0.25 range:



As you can see, it was cold in Alaska and the Yukon (connecting to cold anomalies in northeastern Siberia) but above normal in the south central USA. According to the expert who posted that graphic, the closest analog years are 1954 and 1984, when very warm Februarys happened. The CFSv2 ensembles are also hinting at a warm February.

One thing I've learned so far, during this very unique winter, is it seems you can throw all of the analog years out the window....nothing seems to be going as most pro long range mets have forecast!!! The above forecast may or may not come to fruition but SO FAR this winter nothing seems to be adding up right

[Tireman4]

"The only thing we know is we do not know anything"


The Winter of 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

@northtxboy -- good to see you back! Don't worry, I'm not so bummed yet that I'm ready to jump!

@mushi-tan -- that is a very interesting and compelling graphic. It would seem the odds don't favor the kind of winter most of us want.

[jasons2k]

I think I've had enough rain now. My gauge had 6.7" from 6am to 3pm today. Cars stalled out and abandoned on the various roads leading to my house. Quite a flood in the streets, at least.

And I'm happy with my measly .40" yesterday and 1.75" today for a total of 2.15"

[wall_cloud]

Midland is up to 10.4" as of last check. Wow

[Ntxw]

Midland is up to 10.4" as of last check. Wow

That is phenomenal for a place that doesn't have that many big ticket snow totals. Looking at radar returns, I say they might push for a foot!

Edit: Where is natlib and those snow pictures from san angelo?!

[southerngale]

About 4 inches here today... and a little last night. The ditches overflowed into the yards. My yard was a lake, with very little grass showing. I got picture happy, but not sure if I'll post pics of "flooded" yards.

It was really nice!

[wall_cloud]

San Angelo is sitting between 1.0-1.3 right now at the airport. Still coming down quite good. Also notice the upper low is still tracking ESE along I-10 which could bring the deformation zone farther south.