Disturbed Weather - NW Caribbean Sea (Is invest 90L)

[Frank2]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

it seems like outflow from an area of disturbed weather near Central America has developed in the past few days...

Some of that cloud cover was over South Florida yesterday and it did create some out-of-season convective (CB) cloud cover during the early and late afternoon hours, from what I could see...

Frank2

[gatorcane]

I know its early February but if it were during hurricane season, certainly would be drawing attention.

Definitely doesn't look like February down there right now -- or even over SE Florida with lows near 70F and highs in the 80s for the forseeable future.

Looks like late May or June actually.

Every once in a while (through quite rare), something tropical gets going in the WCAR during the offseason, wonder if this will be one of those times?

I do see some spin down there just off of Belize

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[RL3AO]

Actually it doesn't I just wanted to post the first one of the year.

[HURAKAN]

Interesting low pressure - http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[MGC]

Would be something to have a Feb system...but, I'm afraid the shear is a bit too strong....MGC

[Hurricanehink]

It's the 60th anniversary of this guy. Perhaps that storm was similar to what we have now down there.

[cycloneye]

Nothing turning in a pronnounced way on the radar.

[CrazyC83]

It happened before, so it can happen again. If this becomes 90L, the boards will likely light up in a heartbeat.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[xironman]

That Yucatan channel blob is in the one spot of green in the entire basin.

[NDG]

Very interesting system for this time of the year, but of course is not like we are talking a pure tropical disturbance.
Broad cyclonic circulation off the coast of the NE Yucatan P is better defined than what it was the last couple of days.
Hope the rain makes it to the Orlando area where is needed really bad.

[HURAKAN]

850 mb vorticity

[wxman57]

It has been declared an invest, but it's certainly not tropical and it's in an area of extremely strong upper-level winds. Just some rain for south Florida over the next 24-36 hours as it moves across.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Go to active Storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this Febuary invest.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=112468&p=2212985#p2212985