Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

hi Luis
It's very hazy here today. people are complaining of burning eyes.
So I guess that Saharan dust has arrived here.
Do you have a link of a graphic that shows the dust layer?
I used to have it but don't any more.
Thanks!
Barbara

[cycloneye]

A nice weekend is on tap with only some showers in the afternoon in interior and western Puerto Rico.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST FRI FEB 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO YIELD TO POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON WHILE
POLAR FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY JUST TO THE NW TUE. FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG RIDGE PATTERN THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A
COUPLE OF WEEKS NOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY BREAKDOWN BY SUN AS
INTENSE POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. WEEKEND LOOKS
PRETTY NICE WITH ONLY A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO BUT VERY WARM AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. MOISTURE INCREASES MON NIGHT
WITH PASSAGE OF SHEARLINE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE ALONG THE
NORTH COAST AND CENTRAL CORDILLERA MON NIGHT-TUE. FRONT IS FCST
TO DISSIPATE BY WED HOWEVER WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WITH ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION WED-
THU. AIR MASS GRADUALLY DRIES OUT BY NEXT FRI AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MON. A FRONT WILL STALL NW OF
THE AREA MON NIGHT-TUE WITH NO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SUN-THU BUT
REMAIN MAINLY OVR THE CNTRL CORDILLERA WITH VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW. WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS DURING THE DAYTIME WITH AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

&&

.MARINE...GREAT WEEKEND FOR BOATING WITH SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS 10
KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...SEAS BUILD RAPIDLY MON NIGHT UP TO 10 FT IN
NORTHWEST SWELLS WITH SCA AND HIGH SURF ADVZY CONDITIONS LIKELY
MON NIGHT THRU WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 82 / 0 10 0 0
STT 74 83 74 83 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

hi Luis
It's very hazy here today. people are complaining of burning eyes.
So I guess that Saharan dust has arrived here.
Do you have a link of a graphic that shows the dust layer?
I used to have it but don't any more.
Thanks!
Barbara

Here is the link to the Saharan Air Layer graphic.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... plitE&time

[Gustywind]

hi Luis
It's very hazy here today. people are complaining of burning eyes.
So I guess that Saharan dust has arrived here.
Do you have a link of a graphic that shows the dust layer?
I used to have it but don't any more.
Thanks!
Barbara

Very bad quality of air until Sunday

franceantilles.fr10.02.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 157986.php

Gwad'Air, the association of monitoring the quality of the air in Guadeloupe, warns sensitive individuals. Because of the mists of sand across our archipelago from the Sahara, the quality index air is currently very poor 9 on a scale of 10. The phenomenon began this morning and should stabilize later in the day and tomorrow. An improvement is expected for Sunday.

The presence of mists of sand from the Sahara, the index of the quality of the air, based on the concentrations of 4 pollutants (nitrogen, Ozone, sulphur dioxide and dust less dioxide of 10 microns), is particularly high. 3: 30 P.m. today, it was 9: index bad with a concentration of 65 micrograms / cubic metre. The phenomenon began this morning and should stabilize later in the day and tomorrow. An improvement is expected for Sunday.
These mists of sand transport in large quantity of fine particles, which may have harmful effects on sensitive individuals or suffering from respiratory problems (infants, elderly, asthma, allergies, chronic respiratory deficient, inadequate cardiac). They may have an irritating action on the respiratory tract (cough, respiratory Genoa, asthma attack, eye irritation) and cause nasal and respiratory irritation or an increase in the respiratory effects of dust: embarrassment to inspiration, diminished respiratory capacity, aggravation of existing respiratory pathologies.
For these people, it is preferable to avoid physical activity and intense sports that can exacerbate respiratory diseases by increasing the volume of inhaled air and especially avoid these activities close to the roads. Light physical activities and outputs outside are not prohibited.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
616 AM AST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE A STRONG TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND AS THE POLAR TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. CAUSING WINDS TO START DIMINISHING LATE
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEPING THE AIRMASS FAIRLY DRY...AS
SUGGESTED BY THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
OF AROUND 1 INCH OR EVEN LESS FOR 12/00Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER BUT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
SUNDAY...SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK BRINGING PATCHES OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOCAL EFFECTS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THRU 12/06Z.
NO SIG OPERATIONAL WX IMPACTS ARE FCST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
OR EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS...WHERE FEW-SCT LOW-MID LVL CLDS AND
PASSING TRADE WIND SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE CREATING BRIEF MVFR.
LOCAL LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FM EAST SOUTHEAST BTW 5 AND
15 KTS. AFRICAN DUST WILL MAKE SLIGHTLY HAZIER CONDS THROUGH 12/00Z
MOSTLY BLO 15 KFT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH A SWELL INVADING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 82 73 / 20 10 10 0
STT 83 74 83 74 / 20 20 20 10

[msbee]

Thanks for the link Luis.

Gusty, its much better breathing today here. the haziness is gone for the most part.
Guess it is more over by Luis now.

[cycloneye]

Thanks for the link Luis.

Gusty, its much better breathing today here. the haziness is gone for the most part.
Guess it is more over by Luis now.

Yes Barbara,is here but is a very thin layer,different from past years big sal events. Let's see later this year,how many sal events reach the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Quit warm for this time of the year as winds are from the Southeast until Monday. Also,with dry conditions forest fires can ignit.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SAT FEB 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE TO YIELD TO POLAR TROUGH FCST TO EMERGE OFF THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON
NIGHT. A FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MON
AND BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TUE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MON WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED MON NIGHT
AS A SHEARLINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY GRAZES
THE LOCAL AREA AROUND THE BASE OF DEEP POLAR TROUGH PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE ATLC. ACTUAL FRONT (DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY) WILL REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OUR MAOR. HOWEVER..EXPECT SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS TUE-WED
ACROSS THE SRN SLOPES/SRN COASTAL ZONES DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS/SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. AIR MASS BEGINS TO DRY OUT THU BUT THERE MIGHT
BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO STILL YIELD A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
AIR MASS THEN REALLY DRIES OUT FOR NEXT FRI AND SAT TO PUT A LID
ON CONVECTION. SO NEXT WEEKEND LOOKING PRETTY GOOD ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS. WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT DURING THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH MON. SEAS BUILD UP TO 11 FT TUE ON
NORTHWEST SWELLS WITH SCA AND HIGH SURF CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS DROP BELOW SCA AND HIGH SURF CRITERIA BY WED. WINDS
AROUND 10 KT OR SO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...METAR PLOTS AND RTMA ANALYSIS SHOW RATHER LOW RH
VALUES ACROSS MOST OF PR TODAY WITH MIN_RH AROUND 45%. 950-850 MB
LAPSE RATES QUITE STEEP ACCORDING TO AN 1805Z SJU ACARS SOUNDING
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IS YIELDING VERY HIGH HAINES
INDICES NOT TYPICAL FOR OUR LATITUDES. LUCKLILY...THERE ARE NOT
FIRES AT THIS TIME THAT WE KNOW OF AS THIS TYPE OF THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT COULD RESULT IN CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES. DESPITE
THE LIGHT WINDS NEXT FEW DAYS...THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS COUPLED
WITH DRY AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COULD STILL YIELD
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN PLUMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 82 72 81 / 0 0 0 0
STT 74 83 74 83 / 0 0 10 10

[Macrocane]

Hi! These are the temperatures registered yestreday in Central America, the warmer than normal lows spell continues in the region, actually it got worse in the last few days:

Minimum Temperatures

-Well above normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, above normal in Nicaragua and Panama, near normal in Costa Rica.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.0°C (66.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.8°C (58.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.5°C (47.3°F) On February 8 it registered 9.6°C (49.3°F) the warmest since December 8 2011
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.5°C (68.9°F) Warmest since October 11 2011
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.6°C (49.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.8°C (69.4°F) On February 8 it registered 23.6°C (74.5°F) the warmest since September 8 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F) On February 7 it registered 25°C (77°F) the warmest since October 8 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.5°C (58.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Tegucigalpa, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.8°C (78.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.5°C (76.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F) On February 9 it registered 37.8°C (100°F) THE WARMEST SINCE JUNE 14 2011
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.1°C (68.2°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST SUN FEB 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS A DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA TODAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY
WHICH WOULD HELP DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
THAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CURRENT PATTERN.THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EVEN MORE TODAY AND REMAIN LIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AT THE SAME TIME AS OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS
THETA-E...K-INDEX...AND CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY
REMAIN DECENT. THEREFORE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY INCREASE WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO
OUR NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS
TUESDAY...ABOUT 1.4 TO 1.5 PRECIPITABLE WATER...UNTIL THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...THINGS MAY IMPROVE ACCORDING TO THE GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... LOCAL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS ACROSS TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ.


&&

.MARINE...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE NOW OVER 7 FEET AT BUOY 41043.
MEANWHILE...THE NEARSHORE BUOYS REMAIN AT AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INVADES THE AREA ON
MONDAY. SWAN MODEL SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. DUE TO
THIS EXPECTED INCREASE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...WHICH WILL GO INTO EFFECT ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN INCREASE IN SEAS WHICH WOULD MEET SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL PASSAGES AND THE
NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 82 73 / 10 0 0 20
STT 83 75 83 74 / 10 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

Finally a cold front reached the region and cooler minimum temperatures have been registered this morning, however they were still warmer tha normal yesterday, these are the observations for February 11 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 23°C (73°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.8°C (58.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19°C (66°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.0°C (50.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.4°C (38.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.6°C (56.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 29°C (84°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.1°C (77.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.4°C (65.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.8°C (96.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 19.0°C (66.2°F) Warmest since August 9 2011
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.5°C (94.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.9°C (91.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)

[Macrocane]

This is a recent visible picture of the front located north of Honduras with colder air clouds in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern part of Central America:

[cycloneye]

Macrocane,that same Cold Front will stall just NW of Puerto Rico on Monday and Tuesday as it starts to dissipate. The proximity of it will bring some scattered showers as moisture will increase on both days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SUN FEB 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO
STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO...BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BEHIND THIS FRONT MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH PW VALUES OF
1.28 IN LATEST 12/12Z TJSJ SOUNDING. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CLOUDINESS WITH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH
DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY AND AN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AT UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41047 LOCATED NEAR 660 MILES FROM AGUADIILA...IS
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 19.4 FEET AT 11 SECONDS. THESE
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TO OUR COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. REFER TO MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 71 82 / 0 0 20 20
STT 71 83 73 84 / 10 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST MON FEB 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE AREA AT UPPER LEVELS THIS MORNING AND DIG INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF OUR MARINE WATERS TODAY AND WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SPREADING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME EAST
NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK BUT WILL NOT COME AS CLOSE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS EVIDENCED BY 20 KT NORTHEAST WINDS
REPORTED BY A SHIP...BUT HAS NOT ARRIVED AT BUOY 41043 NORTH OF
SAINT THOMAS WHERE WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS AND SEAS ARE
STILL LESS THAN 6 FEET. RADAR SHOWED A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS
ABOUT 49 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGUADILLA AT 13/0838Z ADVANCING SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KT. AT THIS RATE IT WOULD REACH SAN JUAN AFTER 1
PM AST. WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST NORTHEAST THERE BEFORE NOON. THE
GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND SHOULD SHIFT AT BUOY 41043 BEFORE
13/18Z. IN THE MEANTIME WINDS IN THE LOCAL AREA HAVE BEEN ALMOST
COMPLETELY DOMINATED BY LAND INFLUENCES...AND SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ALMOST ENTIRELY OVER THE CARIBBEAN...HAVE BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWEST. DUE TO THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS THE 87
DEGREES SEEN IN SAN JUAN YESTERDAY AND MOST OF PUERTO RICO WILL BE
A LITTLE COOLER. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL SEE LITTLE CHANGE
TODAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PUERTO RICO FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAY
NOT MAKE IT TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. CURRENT MODELS SHOW
THE FRONT RECEDING TO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVING A BROAD AND
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SHEARLINE OVER OR JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT THOMAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. FROM THEN
ON...SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PATCHES OF MOISTURE OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 13/16Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO START DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO AFTER 13/16Z...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TJPS...TJMZ...AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS AFTER 13/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41047 HAVE ALREADY RAMPED UP TO 11 FEET AND
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER NOON IN OUR NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL SPREAD TO LOCAL SHORES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND GENERATE HIGH SURF AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS.
TOMORROW WITH THE FIRST HIGH TIDE EARLY IN THE MORNING...SOME
COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. HENCE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING AT 6 PM AST. THIS HAS
BEEN MOVED UP A FEW HOURS FOR SAFETY. HIGH SURF IN VIEQUES AND
SAINT CROIX IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEAS OF AS
HIGH AS 11 FEET COULD BE SEEN IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WATERS AND
AS HIGH AS 10 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO
RICO. COULD SEE AS HIGH AS 9 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AFTER TUESDAY...THOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN THE
OUTER ATLANTIC WATERS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 82 72 / 10 10 20 20
STT 84 72 84 72 / 10 0 30 30

[cycloneye]

I added a few more web cams to the first post from different parts of Caribbean and Central America like more Puerto Rican beaches, St John,St Barts (Additional Cams from those places),Curacao,Copper Island,Jamaica,Cuba,Cancun and Playa del Carmen in Yucatan,so check them out.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
407 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...POLAR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
CNTRL ATLC WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN AHEAD OF SFC FRONT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT THESE TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS AND AREAS NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA ON NORTHEAST UPSLOPE
WINDS. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO MIX OUT TOMORROW WHICH
COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPS AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT TOO ENTHUSIASTIC IN GENERATING
CONVECTIVE PRECIP TOMORROW. EXPECT WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP WED AS THERE SHOULD BE MORE HEATING WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE.

THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT THU BUT THERE MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THINGS
REALLY DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AS AREA BECOMES UNDER UPPER
CONFLUENCE. MID-UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS OVERHEAD OVR THE
WEEKEND PUTTING A STRONG LID ON CONVECTION. EXTENDED GRIDS ARE
LIKELY TOO PESIMISTIC IN RAINFALL CHANCES AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO
BE SCALED BACK SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...HI-RES MODELS DO NOT SHOW CIGS DROPPING BELOW 3KFT AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT OR TOMORROW SO HAVE KEPT CIGS IN VFR
CATEGORY BUT EXPECT BKN-OVC050. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY THIS EVENING TO 10-12 FEET
IN NORTHWEST SWELLS ACROSS THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. THIS RAPID
INCREASE IN SEAS WILL COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDE EARLY TUE MORNING
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
RETURN TO SAFE HARBOR BEFORE SUNSET AND REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH
TOMORROW. PEOPLE ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER
TONIGHT AND TUE DUE TO STRONG RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO COASTAL FLOOD
HAZARD MESSAGES FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 81 71 80 / 0 10 30 30
STT 73 82 73 82 / 0 0 20 20

[cycloneye]

Early on Monday morning Puerto Rico had a very low temperature reading in Adjuntas,on the central part of the island. It went down to 44 degrees,first time since 1980 that it goes down that way.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 89753.html

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The cold front has arrived here,but is weakening,so some scattered showers will be the rule today.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLOW REMAINS
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES TO
THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
SOMEWHAT NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER PUERTO RICO AND
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY DURING A GENERAL DRYING TREND.
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC WATERS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BAND OVER PUERTO RICO
HAS KEPT SHOWERS OVER ALL BUT A FEW AREAS ON THE SOUTH COAST.
RAINFALL WAS SUFFICIENT TO SEND THE CIBUCO RIVER INTO FLOOD AT
VEGA BAJA AFTER 3 AM AST FROM WHICH IT HAD NOT RECOVERED AS OF
4:30 AM. FLOOD STAGE THERE IS 15 FEET. OTHER AREAS HAD LESS RAIN
AND NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED. MODELS MOVE THE MOISTURE TO THE WEST
ALTHOUGH AT PRESENT THERE IS LITTLE SIGN THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
NEVERTHELESS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED HERE IN SAN
JUAN AND SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
LINE THROUGH SAINT JOHN. MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS FROM
SAINT CROIX REPORTED CLEAR SKIES. THAT SAID...THERE ARE STILL A
FEW BANDS OF MOISTURE UPSTREAM THAT WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND ON AND OFF THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWED
THE NEXT BEST PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES PASSING
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE FLOW WILL BE
NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST THE ENTIRE PERIOD GIVEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HOLDS ON OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO OUR NORTH
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTS THAT BRUSH THROUGH IT...SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
ISLAND...BUT AS WINDS TURN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM THIS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. TOPS
HAVE BEEN QUITE SHALLOW WITH MOST CLOUD TOPS BELOW 20 THOUSAND
FEET. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT HAS LENT SOME PERSISTENCE TO THE
SHOWERS YIELDING AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH IN SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL
PUERTO RICO...BUT ONCE THE FRONT DISSIPATES SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF
AND LESS PRODUCTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
TJSJ..TJBQ...TJMZ...AND TJPS TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AS VISIBILITIES AND CIGS WILL BE REDUCED WITH THE SHOWERS
UNTIL AT LEAST 15/00Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN TJPS AND
TJMZ.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS PEAKED NEAR 15 FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND HAVE REACHED
9 FEET AT THE NEAR SHORE BUOY 41053 WITH PERIODS OF 12 TO 14 SECONDS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN BREAKING WAVES IN THE 12 TO 18 FOOT RANGE.
CURRENT TIMING FOR THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. THE
POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING STILL EXISTS...BUT TIDES
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND
SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTERWARD...THEREFORE IT IS NOT
CERTAIN WHETHER THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY SHOULD BE CONTINUED. WILL
LEAVE THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THE NEXT SHIFT WHEN
DAYLIGHT CAN REVEAL IF ANY HAS OCCURRED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 81 72 / 30 30 30 20
STT 83 72 83 73 / 20 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST TUE FEB 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MEANDERING COLD FRONT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY AND DRIFTS EASTWARD NORTH OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A
RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM PUERTO RICO INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE MIMIC PWAT ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AT IT
MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND REPOSITIONS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. AS A RESULT...A SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO QUICKLY ESTABLISH
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AFTER THURSDAY...PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...EXPECT A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION BY THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...EXPECT TYPICAL EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ALONG THE CORDILLERA
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLD LYR MAINLY BTW 020-090K FT WITH EMBEDDED
PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREAS THRU AT LEAST
15/00Z. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AS VIS/CIG WILL BE
BRIEFLY REDUCED WITH THESE SHOWERS. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL WITH THE
PASSING SHRA AND LOW CLD LYRS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS BLO 10 KFT...THEN VEERING AND
INCR W/HT.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SWELLS OF 8-11 FEET AT
12-13 SECS. ALTHOUGH...THE SWELLS ARE PEAKED...EXPECT DANGEROUS
SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 81 72 81 / 40 40 20 30
STT 72 83 73 83 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 AM AST WED FEB 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...REMANANTS OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY AND DRIFTS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE
PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ON SHORE MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. MORE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATER TODAY. EXPECT
VARIABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POCKETS OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...WILL CONTINUE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUD LAYER MAINLY BETWEEN 020-090K FEET WITH EMBEDDED
PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FLYING AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
15/22Z. THIS WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AS VIS/CIG WILL BE
BRIEFLY REDUCED WITH THESE SHOWERS. MTN TOP OBSCR ALSO PSBL WITH THE
PASSING SHRA AND LOW CLD LYRS. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS BELOW 10K FEET.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SUBSIDING TREND ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THIS ADVISORY COULD BE DISCONTINUE LATER
TODAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL RELAX TO
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. THE NEXT SWELL/WIND
EVENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 81 71 / 40 40 40 20
STT 83 73 83 72 / 50 40 40 10