
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 535 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
BROKEN BOW NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF SIOUX CITY
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 248...WW 249...WW 250...
DISCUSSION...STRONG SURFACE HEATING/DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR
HAS REDUCED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS NEB...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW DEEPENING CUMULUS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT FROM
SE OF LBF TO SW OF YKN. THE SITUATION IS COMPLICATED BY LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND A QUICK TRANSITION TO STRONGER
SHEAR/COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FRONT...LEAVING ONLY A NARROW
CORRIDOR WITH SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL.
STILL...THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL
TO EXPECTED STORM MOTION...SO ANY STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE SURFACE FRONT COULD REMAIN IN THE NARROW FAVORABLE
CORRIDOR LONG ENOUGH TO BE A TORNADO THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE
TORNADO RISK...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS THROUGH LATE EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24025.
...THOMPSON