LLC Developing just East of Belize?? (Is invest 94L)

[Hurricane Andrew]

Where exactly is the low?

[Florida1118]

^ Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

[NDG]

Where exactly is the low?

I can clearly see a broad circulation with a couple of vorticities, one coming down south along the coast of Belize with the main one near 17.5N & 86W, most of the convection well east of there due to the westerly shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Where exactly is the low?

I can clearly see a broad circulation with a couple of vorticities, one coming down south along the coast of Belize with the main one near 17.5N & 86W, most of the convection well east of there due to the westerly shear.

yeah that one east of belize just developed today. looking at the long loops you can see it. shear is about 30 to 4o kts right now but the models reduce it especially a little farther south just off honduras over the next couple days.

things are improving slowly right about where the surface circ is developing.

[northjaxpro]

18Z TAFB surface analysis has initialized a 1010mb Low pressure on the extreme southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Chetumal, MX.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Agree,this has got my attention. If shear relaxs it could spin up.
We could have 2 named storms this month.

When was the last time 2 storms formed in May?

1887 is the one and only time 2 tropical storms have formed in May. In 1969 there were two tropical depressions that formed during the month, but neither managed to attain tropical storm status.

[crownweather]

Agree,this has got my attention. If shear relaxs it could spin up.
We could have 2 named storms this month.

When was the last time 2 storms formed in May?

1887 is the one and only time 2 tropical storms have formed in May. In 1969 there were two tropical depressions that formed during the month, but neither managed to attain tropical storm status.

1887 was a very busy year with 19 storms, 11 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Very busy also with multiple landfalls. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php .

[KatDaddy]

Broad circulation near the Yucatan this evening that can be seen on the latest satellite loops.

[northjaxpro]

HPC 0Z surface analysis shows the 1009 mb Low Pressure area positioned about 100 miles east of Chetumal, MX in the Gulf of Honduras.

[NDG]

After the Euro doing fairly well with Alberto I am hoping in it being right also with this disturbance. It has being persistent in at least two runs in a row of this disturbance tracking NE towards the Bahamas and western Atlantic then putting the breaks on as ridging builds across the eastern US then retrograde back towards FL bringing much needed rain for central and northern FL and possibly as far north as the GA/Carolinas.

[Aric Dunn]

As the models have suggesting the shear in the NW carrib has dropped quite a bit this morning and become more anti cyclonic. we already know there is a low there and convection this morning is a little more concentrated. I would imagine the nhc giving this 20 to 30 % sometime today.

[NDG]

I still see the broad surface low, a little further north than yesterday, but no LLC.
It is a bit elongated SW to NE, IMO.
Last night's Euro has a 1005mb closed low this evening near the Isle of Youth, not sure if that will pan out that quick.

[Aric Dunn]

I still see the broad surface low, a little further north than yesterday, but no LLC.
It is a bit elongated SW to NE, IMO.
Last night's Euro has a 1005mb closed low this evening near the Isle of Youth, not sure if that will pan out that quick.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/5-22.jpg[/mg]

its still just about where it was yesterday. just north of roatan island. looking at long radar and surface obs you can locate it. there does appear to be another smaller vort up there though.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, the shear is very slowly beginning to slacken in this region. Development will be very gradual, but if the shear can drop to 20 knots or slightly less, this may have a chance to become invest 94L. I think it should get at least a yellow circle from NHC by this evening if the trend continues. The area continues to look better in terms of convection trying to organize around the Low Pressure area. One thing for certain is this has been a very tenacious system. It has festered in this area of the Gulf of Honduras for the past five days.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

I still see the broad surface low, a little further north than yesterday, but no LLC.
It is a bit elongated SW to NE, IMO.
Last night's Euro has a 1005mb closed low this evening near the Isle of Youth, not sure if that will pan out that quick.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/5-22.jpg[/mg]

its still just about where it was yesterday. just north of roatan island. looking at long radar and surface obs you can locate it. there does appear to be another smaller vort up there though.

IMO, that vorticity that is shown on the radar loop from Belize approaching the Island of Roatan is the vorticity that was coming down on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula rotating around the broader circulation.
I think the circulation that is taking over is to the SE of Cozumel, right about right near buoy 42056, which is reporting some of the lowest pressures in the area, I see lots of SW to NE moving low clouds NE of Roatan.

[Aric Dunn]

I still see the broad surface low, a little further north than yesterday, but no LLC.
It is a bit elongated SW to NE, IMO.
Last night's Euro has a 1005mb closed low this evening near the Isle of Youth, not sure if that will pan out that quick.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/5-22.jpg[/mg]

its still just about where it was yesterday. just north of roatan island. looking at long radar and surface obs you can locate it. there does appear to be another smaller vort up there though.

IMO, that vorticity that is shown on the radar loop from Belize approaching the Island of Roatan is the vorticity that was coming down on the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula rotating around the broader circulation.
I think the circulation that is taking over is to the SE of Cozumel, right about right near buoy 42056, which is reporting some of the lowest pressures in the area, I see lots of SW to NE moving low clouds NE of Roatan.

well its either way still disorganized and every little burst of convection will pull or for another little vort.

[SFLcane]

Though pressures have lowered a bit down in the caribbean there are no signs of any real organization. Models arent down much with it.

[cycloneye]

The 12z surface analysis continues with the low pressure in Western Caribbean.

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

I think the low is up by the Isle of Pines

[Aric Dunn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

I think the low is up by the Isle of Pines

there are multiple vorts. the mean center is our best bet right now... still very broad.