EPAC: BUD - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Pinhole eye!

Raw T#'s are now @ 5.8.

Could become a major hurricane tomorrow. Recon will have an awesome time tomorrow I'm sure, I hope they stay safe. Night everyone!

I really think it's a Cat. 2 right now:

[Chacor]

Bud is looking very impressive. Can't be too far from Cat 3, even. The next intermediate will be interesting.

[AHS2011]

Well, all that we can ***possibly*** conclude is that there will be a retrograding system, most likely tropical, over the holiday weekend. This May may have a repeat of the 1887 season, two pre-season named storms. Alberto....gone-Beryl...coming. What are the chances of a May cat 1 hurricane?

[xironman]

I am certainly not drinking the EURO's Koolaid...seems a little too ambitious...I think a track similar to it's solution may be accurate but not in terms of intensity. It is WAY too early for the kind of development that the EURO shows. SSTs in the continental shelf are still in the low to mid 70s. We shall see...

Agreed,If the water temps were in the low to mid 80's maybe.

Usually the upper atmosphere is not as warm this time of year as it is later, so a numerical model could be expressing the convective potential in which both are lower.

[Cyclenall]

Bud is looking amazing now . He doesn't have a pin-hole eye but the eye is close to clearing out with some frames showing the eye very well. Its possible the hurricane is undergoing explosive intensification but we will have to see if it continues all day.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.9mb / 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 / 4.7 / 5.7

Nearing category 2 strength I think. That raw T# is going nuts. Recon is going to be awesome.

[cycloneye]

Thankfully,the cruise ship Millenium is out of danger as it surpassed Bud in longitude.

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... call=9HJF9

[RL3AO]

Quick guess would be 90kts are so. Recon might actually fly into an EPAC storm at its peak for once.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[NDG]

This will definitely be a hybrid/subtropical set up for organization in the beginning. It may gain more subtropical or tropical charecteristics just east of FL as it moves over the gulf stream.

[cycloneye]

It will be a long flight but facinating to see when it gets closer to Bud to grasp the data.

gotoman38,or Brunota will be posting the flight from start to finish.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

[brunota2003]

Unfortunately I will be busy all day (on my phone), I will be watching and posting on occasion, but can't actually run the mission

[cycloneye]

Unfortunately I will be busy all day (on my phone), I will be watching and posting on occasion, but can't actually run the mission

Ok no problem.

[RL3AO]

Is that a "conservative" 75kts from the NHC?

[NDG]

06z gfs's track of the low is very similar to that of last night's 0z euro.



You can see how it has the low as shallow warm core but as it retrogrades towards FL it gains more tropical or subtropical charecteristics as it moves over the gulf stream.

[Aric Dunn]

00z ukmet is right there with the Euro on track and intensity.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track-90kts

EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[RL3AO]

Alberto was just a warm up for recon. Straight into the fire with this one.

[gotoman38]

Unfortunately I will be busy all day (on my phone), I will be watching and posting on occasion, but can't actually run the mission

Ok no problem.

I'm on it - should be able to cover the whole mission minus a few short breaks.

[cycloneye]

Unfortunately I will be busy all day (on my phone), I will be watching and posting on occasion, but can't actually run the mission

Ok no problem.

I'm on it - should be able to cover the whole mission minus a few short breaks.

Thank you for that. Let's see how strong Bud really is.