Global model runs discussion

[Meso]

Eh, 00z is in line with similar thinking to the previous few runs in that it sees a large area of moisture moving through the western Caribbean near the end of the time frame, where yesterday's run was taking it east of Florida, the 00z shows it headed into the gulf.

[floridasun78]

Eh, 00z is in line with similar thinking to the previous few runs in that it sees a large area of moisture moving through the western Caribbean near the end of the time frame, where yesterday's run was taking it east of Florida, the 00z shows it headed into the gulf.

which model you talking about?

[cycloneye]

Eh, 00z is in line with similar thinking to the previous few runs in that it sees a large area of moisture moving through the western Caribbean near the end of the time frame, where yesterday's run was taking it east of Florida, the 00z shows it headed into the gulf.

which model you talking about?

He is talking of GFS.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS a again showing western carrib and gulf system in long range.

[Aric Dunn]

for quite a few runs now the cmc continues to pull something out of the gulf/carrib and races across florida and into the atlantic. this run is much more aggressive.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

And now the 12z NOGAPS is as well for the first time.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

FWIW- noticed the 18Z GFS spit outs a TS at 384hr heading into the GOM. Thats exciting...getting that time of year for the GFS to spin up the storms in the long long range...

[Ptarmigan]

FWIW- noticed the 18Z GFS spit outs a TS at 384hr heading into the GOM. Thats exciting...getting that time of year for the GFS to spin up the storms in the long long range...

Another Allison perhaps........................

[ROCK]

lets hope not PT....

0Z GFS still rolling nada in the short to medium range. Waiting on the long range to see if it kept the storm....

[ROCK]

in GFS la la land at 336hrs we have a storm moving across the Yuc.....

[Meso]

Two storms in the 00z GFS.

One forms as it moves NE over Florida, forming a tropical or subtropical storm off the east coast at around 288+- hours. And then it's also continuing to show the one around the gulf/western Caribbean near the end of the run.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

I am seeing signals in both the forecast pattern and in the long-range model guidance that we may have a third tropical cyclone develop by or before June 15th. Last night’s GFS model forecasts the development of two storms in the long range. One storm develops as it tracks away from Florida and into the Atlantic around June 13th and the development of a storm in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico around June 15-16th.

First and foremost, I want to say that I am not expecting any tropical development through at least June 10th. After that, however, I think we could see some sort of tropical development in either the extreme northwestern Caribbean or in the Gulf of Mexico as we edge near June 15th.

So, after several days of expected rainfall in the eastern United States from this weekend into early next week, we should see high pressure build into the eastern United States as we get into the middle and later part of next week. This will in turn cause a lowering of barometric pressures in the Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico. This could end up being a long duration development, meaning that development will end up being very slow to take place and may end up taking upwards of a week before something finally pops between June 13th and June 16th.

So, it is entirely conceivable that the GFS model may be onto something in the forecast development in the Gulf of Mexico around June 15th. It should be noted that the GFS model did very well with the development of Beryl over a week out, and the upper level forecast charts for around June 15th show lowering pressures over the Gulf of Mexico. So, this will be something to watch as we get closer in time.

[Aric Dunn]

12z run shows no system but does however show a very persistent area of convection in the NW carrib and gulf. whats interesting is that it starts to fester around 120 hrs after a system heads of the east coast. seems to be the tail end of a front that stalls in the area and a series of weak troughs reinforce it through the rest of the run. its very similar to the 00z run in that it keeps the disturbed weather around in the area for over a week after about 120 hours spinning off multiple lows. may point to take from it is that something will likely be there to watch and like crown weather said as well .... its likely going to be a very slow process.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

GFS Hinting at something next tuesday. But its sporadic with each run. Not sure what to make of it. CMC caught it also. Will see.

[boca]

The GFS 18z never ran its 745pm

[cycloneye]

Once again, another GFS run (12z) shows the Western Caribbean system. But is very long range and for sure as the runs come,the scenario changes. Let's see if other models join GFS later on in the next few days or this is a ghost.



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[arp2559]

12z Euro. Now this is what you call homebrew...this does not originate from the tropics, but from the CONUS. It dips into the water from the NGOM, tracks across FL, and then off the East Coast.

Heading is about NNE from hr 216-240

[cycloneye]

The 00z runs didn't offer hope for something to develop anytime soon as the GFS and ECMWF are distant from a consensus. Imagine that what ECMWF had off the East coast of U.S on Saturdays runs,is not there at 00z and that says it all.

[Rgv20]

12zGFS has a tropical system in the GOM in the Loonngg Range...324hrs out.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS shows some stormy weather at 288HR for folks in LA....looks like a weak TS...but it is a long way away to get all worked up over....

[ROCK]

12zGFS has a tropical system in the GOM in the Loonngg Range...324hrs out.

thats better resolution than what came out of the NCEP site. It barely closes it off in the long range.