ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[euro6208]

tropical hell in the pacific!!! elnino is coming!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

head back up!

[NDG]

Do not click on the hot link above.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I just want neutral weather......I don't want drought nor do I want to drown.

Normal would be perfect (and hopefully all would benefit without getting hurt).

[joshb19882004]

texas needs el nino to kick in its dry still here

[weatherdude1108]

texas needs el nino to kick in its dry still here

Yes! We definitely need it to kick in this part of Texas! Our reservoirs (Travis and Buchanan) are 51% full (or 49% empty) depending on how you look at it. I think the last time both were completely full at the same time was back in 2007(?).

[cycloneye]

texas needs el nino to kick in its dry still here

Yes! We definitely need it to kick in this part of Texas! Our reservoirs (Travis and Buchanan) are 51% full (or 49% empty) depending on how you look at it. I think the last time both were completely full at the same time was back in 2007(?).

Texas also needs a good solid winter as the last 2011-2012 one was lackluster for that state.If El Nino kicks in,then Texas will have a good winter. We have a Texas Winter 2012-2013 thread for the folks who live in Texas.

viewtopic.php?f=22&p=2228518#p2228518

[Ntxw]

The latest MJO/Kelvin wave is entering the western hemisphere (EPAC) hence the activity brewing there. This will probably allow the SOI to relax for awhile from such negative values. However I think the damage may have already been done to nino 3-3.4. Next week's update should be reflective of the warming due to the bursts of westerlies this week.



I made this post for the new month on June 1st. The models were correct in awakening the MJO. Now just need the other half to verify.

Ok lets try this one more time. Should take this with a grain of salt given the lack of verification in May. The key players (Ukmet, Euro) are indicating a significant awakening of the MJO/Kelvin wave by the summer solstice. Meanwhile the PDO index has been rising since slightly since March. Back in late feb or early march I predicted El nino to arrive by mid June, 2 weeks to go to have that verify.

[Cyclenall]

I was trying to find ENSO data going back before 1950 on what the phase was and how strong. I then looked at some SOI data going back to the 1800s as a sub but I heard that it can wildly show values not corresponding to what the ENSO state is in. I want to know as much as possible about 1911 and based on the SOI trend, It might have been neutral conditions going into a moderate El Nino during the course of the year. 1905 looked like a very strong El Nino but this is a guess. Any take on where to find the experts analysis on ENSO states before 1950? 1911 specifically.

[NDG]

Personally I think that it will be hard for the SOI to tank any lower than what it is right now with surface pressures forecasted to stay somewhat high in Tahiti.
No signs of any westerly winds taking over the central Pacific any time soon, so I think that if we see Nino 3.4 getting up to El Nino will not be until at least September.

[Ptarmigan]

I was trying to find ENSO data going back before 1950 on what the phase was and how strong. I then looked at some SOI data going back to the 1800s as a sub but I heard that it can wildly show values not corresponding to what the ENSO state is in. I want to know as much as possible about 1911 and based on the SOI trend, It might have been neutral conditions going into a moderate El Nino during the course of the year. 1905 looked like a very strong El Nino but this is a guess. Any take on where to find the experts analysis on ENSO states before 1950? 1911 specifically.

Winter of 1904-1905 was El Nino, the previous winter was La Nina. It was one of the coldest winters on record. Also, 1911-1912 was El Nino. Like 1904, 1911 went from La Nina to El Nino.

Here are some ENSO data.

TNI (Trans-Niño Index) and N3.4 (Niño 3.4 Index)
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/cli ... index.html

Japanese Meteorological Agency ENSO
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

Hope it helps.

[Yellow Evan]

Personally I think that it will be hard for the SOI to tank any lower than what it is right now with surface pressures forecasted to stay somewhat high in Tahiti.
No signs of any westerly winds taking over the central Pacific any time soon, so I think that if we see Nino 3.4 getting up to El Nino will not be until at least September.

MJO is coming, so that should help. El Nino looks likely very soon IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Cyclenall]

Winter of 1904-1905 was El Nino, the previous winter was La Nina. It was one of the coldest winters on record. Also, 1911-1912 was El Nino. Like 1904, 1911 went from La Nina to El Nino.

Here are some ENSO data.

TNI (Trans-Niño Index) and N3.4 (Niño 3.4 Index)
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/cli ... index.html

Japanese Meteorological Agency ENSO
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

Hope it helps.

Yes that does help, thanks. The 2nd link had data I could read more into to see ENSO trends. Now knowing 1911 went from La Nina to El Nino is tantalizing since that is very similar to what might be going on now. I think the La Nina at the start of 1911 was stronger than now but when May's temperatures went berserk around here a major shift was occurring at that time. 1911 has been fascinating me because of the insane heat from May to September IMBY and now I know the first piece of the puzzle.

Here is a data row from the Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean Wesbite:

Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (ºC) also known as the "cold tongue index" (CTI). CTI values in hundredths ºC. For example, 62 is 0.62 ºC:

1911 -48 -61 -49 -32 52 37 118 123 131 133 181 225

[NDG]

Personally I think that it will be hard for the SOI to tank any lower than what it is right now with surface pressures forecasted to stay somewhat high in Tahiti.
No signs of any westerly winds taking over the central Pacific any time soon, so I think that if we see Nino 3.4 getting up to El Nino will not be until at least September.

MJO is coming, so that should help. El Nino looks likely very soon IMO.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

MJO is already approaching the eastern Pacific, looks like it is affecting Nino 3 Region more than Nino 3.4 & 4 Regions, but nonetheless still a nice little warm up during this week.





Look at 2009 by this same time of year, glad people have dropped the idea lately of 2009 being an ENSO analog year.

[cycloneye]

The June ECMWF update shows Weak to Moderate El Nino for August/September/October.

[NDG]

Euro has been running warm bias, on Nino Region 3.4

[NDG]

Latest 30 day SOI up to -6.8 as pressures have gone up in Tahiti.

Code: Select all

Date              Tahiti        Darwin       Daily**    30 day avg       SOI 90 day avg SOI
16 Jun 2012      1015.10       1012.60      8.50        -6.80                  -3.82

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[joshb19882004]

daily soi turned negative again today after a 3 day positive turn http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... /index.php

Average for last 30 days -6.9
Average for last 90 days -3.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -8.9

[NDG]

Nice little warm up during the past few days across the ENSO Regions 3 & even 3.4 due to the current visit by the MJO.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center Weekly update of 6/18/12

The MJO wave has caused the pacific to warm even more than before and now Nino 3.4 is up to +0.3C up from +0.1C that was last week. It looks inevitable now that El Nino will come soon.The question is how strong it will be.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf