NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[N2Storms]

[quote="bayoubebe"]Supposed to be going to Florida(beach/Panhandle area) next weekend. In your opinions, is the weather going to be bad? Will the storm below FL currently be affecting the area in a week?[/quote]



You should be good to go...calling for some great weather next week. Low humidity, hot and sunny. Bring plenty of sunscreen and enjoy.

[bayoubebe]

Supposed to be going to Florida(beach/Panhandle area) next weekend. In your opinions, is the weather going to be bad? Will the storm below FL currently be affecting the area in a week?

You should be good to go...calling for some great weather next week. Low humidity, hot and sunny. Bring plenty of sunscreen and enjoy.

Thank you! I really appreciate the input.

[floridasun78]

it look like storms are increasing in nw carribbean could that be mjo getting started?

[Ntxw]

it look like storms are increasing in nw carribbean could that be mjo getting started?

Indeed the MJO is just entering from the EPAC region into Central America and east slowly (note: Carlotta).



Monsoonal trough will get active then the game begins on where low pressure will form. Often times multiple vortices form in such a broad area of convection hence the different model interpretations of where systems form/go.

[Sanibel]

Could be something trying to form in the NW Caribbean. Might be all upper.

[northjaxpro]

Brief excerpt from NHC this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. in the TWD regarding potential activity in the BOC:

ANOTHER AREA OF WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE
CARLOTTA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH SIMILAR
CONVECTION S OF 21N. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
DETERIORATE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

beginning to think this is all a bunch of model nonsense This happens a lot early in the season as the convective scheme of these models spins up a lot of these "phantom" storms and it draws all kinds of attention but ends up being nothing much of anything. With that said, don't take your eyes off of it but at the same time, don't get too surprised if nothing happens. This happens every season year in and year out.

There are three threads for three different areas at Talking Tropics forum.Take you pick on which is going to develop if at all.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville afternoon discussion....brief mention of the possible disturbance.

THE CHANCE OF
RAINFALL MAY INCREASE DURING THE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM POSSIBLY AFFECTS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

Corpus afternoon discussion

THE NEXT MAJOR CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SWATH OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO APPROACH SOUTH TEXAS FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN ADDITION...THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVE IT TOWARD THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS TOO WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS GIVEN THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT CLOSE UP TOO TIGHTLY OR STAYS
TOO FAR SOUTH. WITH THIS...WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES...WINDS A BIT MORE EASTERLY PUMPING IN THE DEEP
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. STAY TUNED!

[RL3AO]

In an attempt to keep things organized, we are shifting the BOC and NW Caribbean discussion into one thread.

While they may be separate systems, its still one overall disturbed pattern.

[Aric Dunn]

definitely a broad circ developing down there. mostly convection free from that should change tonight.

[cycloneye]

From Houston/Galveston NWS:

THE NEXT BIG STORY WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CIRCULATION THE
MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEGINNING
AROUND TUESDAY. MANY SHIFTS AHEAD OF THIS ONE TO FINE TUNE WHERE
THIS LOW/SYSTEM DOES MEANDER IF/WHEN IT FORMS. IF THE MODELS ARE
ON TO SOMETHING AND THEY DO VERIFY...IT TRANSLATES TO EVEN HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT BEING CHANNELED INTO OUR REGION UPON A LONG DURATION
SE-TO-E FETCH. INCREASED THETA E RIDGING (305K SFC) MOVES UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...AND THIS DE-STABILIZATION SCENARIO
LEANS TOWARDS HIGH PRECIPITATION EVENT(S). AS OF NOW...JUST BOOKMARKED
CATEGORICAL -TSRA IN WX GRIDS...BUT IF PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT ON
THIS CIRCULATION MOVING UP THE MEXICO COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN
TEXAS NEXT WEEKEND...THEN RAIN-BANDING ATOP OF THIS LARGE SCALE
FEATURE WOULD HAVE THE DISCUSSION TURNING TO THAT OF A MORE-TROPICAL
AIR MASS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH(ER) QPF.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the 18z GFS is jumping on the low coming out of the Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the 18z GFS is jumping on the low coming out of the Caribbean

[img]http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical090.gif[/ig]

yeah so did the 12z. SW carrb low develops moves north then into either southern gulf or BOC.

[Ivanhater]

Low is certainly more away from land and in the central Gulf

[Ivanhater]

A lot less land interaction this run

[Ivanhater]

Much further north this run

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like this run is tracking to the northern gulf coast .

[Dean4Storms]

Much less ridge there to the east of it, this could end up back toward the northern Gulf Coast before all is said and done.

[floridasun78]

definitely a broad circ developing down there. mostly convection free from that should change tonight.

but area more north were low on map

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles keep the lower pressures confined to the BOC thru Thursday morning and beyond. 18zGFS just showed us what could happen if the center of the disturbance were to develop about 150miles NE of the 12z run, such a delicate situation!