WPAC: TALIM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

another invest! this time in the south china sea...

[francis327]

East of Vietnam, South East of Hainan Island or West of PI as well

[Typhoon Hunter]

Models quite confident in developing this system into at least a tropical depression. It's already bringing squally torrential rain to Hong Kong so I'm watching it closely!

[dexterlabio]

cyclonic turning is evident on sat loops. euro has this as a TC in 3-5 days and heading towards Taiwan.

[senorpepr]

Now a tropical depression:


WTPQ21 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.2N 111.8E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 19.3N 112.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE E SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[P.K.]

CMA have also picked up on this and also expect a TS.

WTPQ20 BABJ 161200
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD 02 INITIAL TIME 161200 UTC
00HR 19.6N 111.5E 995HPA 15M/S
P12HR ALMOST STATIONARY
P+24HR 19.7N 111.9E 992HPA 18M/S=

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 19.2N 111.9E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 19.4N 112.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.3N 111.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 151546Z OSCAT
PASS SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH A WEAK, 05-10 KNOT
LLCC. PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA REFLECT THE STRONG MONSSON
TROUGHING WITH REPORTS RANGING FROM 1000-1005 MB. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER AN EASTERN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS ANCHORED FAR TO THE WEST BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN INDIA. WHILE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC, IT
SHARPLY INCREASES TO MODERATE AND STRONG LEVELS TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH. THEREFORE, A SMALL SWATH OF FAVORABLE VWS IS AVAILABLE AT
THE MOMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

very disorganized but honestly, this system looks like one of those *weak* looking tropical storms in the atlantic... it might be one then...



high probability of a development...

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 19.3N 111.9E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 19.7N 112.5E 120NM 70%
MOVE NE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
111.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 111.9E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 161635Z OSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHARP TROUGHING IN THE AREA WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS. PRESSURE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA CONFIRM AN ESPECIALLY DEEP MONSOON
TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TWO FEATURES AFFECTING THE
AREA; THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE YELLOW SEA TO TAIWAN, WHICH
IS PRODUCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OVER THE LLCC IS LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, IT INCREASES
SHARPLY AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION, LEAVING ONLY A SMALL SWATH OF
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM THE
REGION INDICATE THAT THE LLCC IS WELL-DEFINED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Typhoon Hunter]

HKO have also upgraded this to a TD now, their statement on it:

"The Tropical Depression over the seas to the east of Hainan Island is expected to be slow-moving at first. It will maintain a distance from Hong Kong and may not pose direct threat to Hong Kong in short term. In case the Tropical Depression shows signs of further intensification or moving closer to Hong Kong, the Observatory will consider issuing the Standby Signal No.1. Members of the public should pay close attention to the latest weather information from the Observatory.
Issued at 11:07 HKT 17/Jun/2012"

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 170354
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 17/0232Z

C. 19.3N

D. 111.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...INVEST HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. DT OF 1.0 BASED ON GT 0.2 BANDING. MET AND PT ARE
1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 19.3N 111.7E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 19.9N 112.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Typhoon Hunter]

TD has already dumped over 100mm of rain over HK yesterday alone so given its slow forecast movement I'm expecting some very wet days to come:

http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/rainfall/isohyet_ydaye.htm

[francis327]

Moving slowly..almost stationary

WTPQ21 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.3N 111.7E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 19.9N 112.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

717
TXPQ29 KNES 170957
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 17/0832Z

C. 19.0N

D. 112.0E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LLCC IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN. SYSTEM APPEARS SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 W BANDING. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.3N 111.7E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 19.9N 112.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

WTPQ21 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 19.3N 111.7E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 20.0N 113.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE ENE SLOWLY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RobWESTPACWX]

TRMM sat imagery really tells the story for SE china, and the high amount of rains this past week.

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/affinity/affi ... _rain.html

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's the link to Haikou radar on Hainan island, can see the circulation spinning away nicely there:

http://www.weather.com.cn/static/radar_video_v1.php?class=JC_RADAR_AZ9898_JB&v=0&v1=0&go=1206172135&to=1206172135