NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[Rgv20]

Thru 120hrs the GFS Ensemble Means have not wavered on the idea of something developing in the BOC....Pretty impressive consistency and is only 4 to 5 days out.

12zGFS Ensemble Means forecast valid for Friday Morning.

[djmikey]

I stick to my post a several pages back...."Watch this end up being a Mexico storm....AGAIN!"

[Aric Dunn]

12! cmc is interesting
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

as is the nogaps
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ronjon]

I'm sensing a shift in the models with the western caribbean perhaps becoming the focal point for low pressure development. Interesting that 12Z GFS is now coming around to 00z Euro and CMC runs this morning - it now places a weak 1009 mb low over S FL by Wed-Thur timeframe. Throw NOGAPS and NAM in there as well for what its worth. We might need to watch the Yucatan channel, FL straits, or SE GOM for possible development in 3-5 days.

[Aric Dunn]

convection starting to develop with circ near honduras. keep close eye on it

[bilhhh]

Any areas reached the status of an "invest" yet?
Have forgotten which NHC page shows Invests.
Thank you,
Bil
PS pls excuse if I am slow to reply as I am super busy today! Bless all of you.
PS wd like to hear your favorite schemes for preventing/steering storms. Any like the sulfur particle/reflection via low atmosphere rocket idea?

[Rgv20]

Brownsville Afternoon discussion.

"MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH HEADS WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES...AS TROPICAL EASTERLIES ARE
ALLOWED TO RETURN TO OUR AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...MY CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST ALSO STARTS TO WANE DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE MULTIPLE
SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE MODELS DURING THE DAY 5 THROUGH 7 TIME
PERIOD.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT /OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS/
IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...FROM A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. THE MODELS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
TO VARYING DEGREES...WITH THE GFS STILL SHOWING THE GREATEST
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD SHOW A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND /AT LEAST
AS OF RIGHT NOW/.

REGARDLESS OF ITS STRENGTH/DEVELOPMENT...IF WE ASSUME THE GENERAL
FORECAST MOVEMENT IS CORRECT....ADDITIONAL DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD HEAD INTO OUR AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WITH LATER FORECASTS.
FOR NOW THOUGH...I PLAN ON TAKING THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET AND
STAYING PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST DURING THIS TIME
BECAUSE OF ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES."

[cycloneye]

Any areas reached the status of an "invest" yet?
Have forgotten which NHC page shows Invests.
Thank you,
Bil
PS pls excuse if I am slow to reply as I am super busy today! Bless all of you.
PS wd like to hear your favorite schemes for preventing/steering storms. Any like the sulfur particle/reflection via low atmosphere rocket idea?

You can follow this site where the invests are activated and updated.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[RL3AO]

Any areas reached the status of an "invest" yet?
Have forgotten which NHC page shows Invests.
Thank you,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/?C=M;O=D

PS wd like to hear your favorite schemes for preventing/steering storms. Any like the sulfur particle/reflection via low atmosphere rocket idea?

Storms are way too big and steered by forces way too large for any human intervention to make a dent in controller where they go.

[cycloneye]

From the afternoon discussion by NWS Corpus Christi:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
DVLPG A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ARE ALL MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH DVLPG JUST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
MODELS CONT TO BRING DEEPER GULF MOISTURE INTO S TX WITH PRECIP
COMING IN WAVES ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LOW. LATEST MODELS
SOLNS SHOW WED NOW BEING THE WETTER DAY AS AN UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...AND DECREASING CHCS THU AND ESPECIALLY FRI
AS THE UPPER TROF CONTS TO TRACK FARTHER WEST LEAVING S TX IN A MORE
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. AS FOR POPS...ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO TUE POPS AS
THEY STILL LOOK REASONABLE AHD OF THE UPPER TROF. HAVE INCREASED WED
POPS GIVEN LATEST MODEL TRENDS MOVG THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS GUIDANCE. DID NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THU KEEPING THE 20-40 POPS. DECREASED FRI
POPS...BUT DID NOT GO AS LOW AS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS PROG ANOTHER WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA. ONLY MADE TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS AND WIND FCSTS
BUT OVERALL THEY LOOKED GOOD.

[bilhhh]

Hello Eye, RL,
Thanks for the links!
They will be most helpful soon, I believe. Appreciate your taking the time to look up the links. We layfolks are highly dependent on you weather experts for keeping us safe from the storms. You are like cell walls keeping bacteria out of the cytoplasm.
-------------------
As to the sulfur,.
True, storms are pretty large.

[cycloneye]

Afternoon discussion by NWS Houston/Galveston:

THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF HAS THE EXTENDED LEANING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION CONCERNING THE LATE WEEK EVOLUTION OF THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION. THAT BEING OF A VERY BROAD...DIFFUSE
LOW SLOWLY MEANDERING MORE WEST THAN NORTH THROUGH DAY 7. THE GFS
AND CANADIAN ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...TRENDING
MORE TOWARDS THE EURO`S MESSAGE. MONSTROUS RIDGING ENVELOPES THE
U.S. PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND THAT WILL NOT ONLY SHUNT/SUPPRESS ANY
TROPICAL ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH BUT ALSO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION.
AFTER AN ON-AND-OFF AGAIN SHOWERY START TO THE WEEK...IT MAY VERY
WELL END HOT AND DRY (PRECIP-WISE).

[floridasun78]

so now back looking at nw carribbean again?

[NDG]

Long live king Euro.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensemble Means do support an idea of a Tropical Low in the BOC/Western Gulf Coast......Below is the 144 & 168hrs forecast and it has the low crawling to the NW. Models still support some kind of development in the BOC but the details are sketchy. FWIW the 12zJMA (Japanese Model) does develop a low and moves it toward the NE Mexican Coast by this coming weekend.

[NDG]

From past experiences Eur's ensembles don't do too well in the GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

so now back looking at nw carribbean again?

should never have stopped. al model from the beginning alwzys had at least energy coming from the csrrib. esrlier runs had nothing but a csrrib system

[Ivanhater]

Sure is soupy in the Caribbean

[Rgv20]

It seems that the models today want to split the energy between the BOC and around the florida keys area......I do not expect the area over south florida to develop much but its going to rob some energy of the potential BOC system. IMO that is why the GFS has been trending weaker and weaker with it.

18zGFS Ensemble Means