NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[bayoubebe]

Why, oh why? Would you say the weather is going to mess up weekend plans around the gulf coast? Beach plans, a bad thing at this point?
arrgh

[floridasun78]

it kill my beach plan here in miami start of my vacation

[tailgater]

Why, oh why? Would you say the weather is going to mess up weekend plans around the gulf coast? Beach plans, a bad thing at this point?
arrgh

Let's hope the Nam is wrong again.

[psyclone]

Why, oh why? Would you say the weather is going to mess up weekend plans around the gulf coast? Beach plans, a bad thing at this point?
arrgh

the panhandle may be fine for the weekend with a better chance of wetter weather over peninsular florida. stay tuned

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Means has a 1005mb Low just north of the Yucatan Peninsula (0zGFS has it NE of the Yucatan) by Saturday Morning.




By Sunday Morning the Ensembles begin to diverge greatly....A sure sign that the GFS is still having a difficult time handling this disturbance.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian slams Pensacola again

[cycloneye]

Stays at 10%.


A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE
THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS.

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro coming in much stronger with the Gulf low

[Ivanhater]

[Hurricane Alexis]

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Is that shear affecting the disturbanc or good outflow being released from it?

[northjaxpro]

Looks pretty good early this morning. Satellite shows convective burst has maintained overnight. Also, there are some very deep convective tops as well, signaling good low level convergence near the Isle of Youth. Still shear for sure affecting the region, but it definitely appears that we may be seeing our Low Pressure area finally beginning to take shape. If the trend continues with the convection, I think we probably will see this area get tagged as an invest later today by NHC.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of this poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[NDG]

I don't see the area being declared an invest yet, onvection has maintained but the surface trough is now well west of it, over the Yucatan channel. A vorticity is noted withe convection but is in the mid levels, nothing at the surface.

[northjaxpro]

Right NDG, but I think that we are finally seeing the development of something working its way to the surface within the next 12-24 hours with the recent developments. That is some very good convergence near the Isle of Youth and region south of Cuba. If that continues today, it is my thinking that a low level reflection will work down to the surface. We'll see how it pans out.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%:

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...
ESPECIALLY IN CUBA WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

[SFLcane]

I think its becoming likely whatever comes out of the caribbean will get absorbed by a coming short-wave next week and move NE towards florida. This is suggest by the WFO in miami this morning. Rain,Rain, and Rain for florida.

[tolakram]

Visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[wxman57]

Second disturbance moving into the BoC looks more impressive than the mess near western Cuba. Remember, that's what the models had been predicting for 10 days or so - moisture from Carlotta moving into the BoC/SW Gulf developing into a storm. Need to monitor both areas. Maybe the GFS was right in developing two weak low centers?

[SFLcane]

Second disturbance moving into the BoC looks more impressive than the mess near western Cuba. Remember, that's what the models had been predicting for 10 days or so - moisture from Carlotta moving into the BoC/SW Gulf developing into a storm. Need to monitor both areas. Maybe the GFS was right in developing two weak low centers?

And todays 6z GFS shows both lows being absorbed by a short-wave next week and shooting it NE towards FL which seems probable.

[Aric Dunn]

circ moving off north coast of cuba. into florida straights wkll like deepen

[Aric Dunn]

well se gulf