NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

Still quite disorganized but as tpc suggest windshear may slacken of a bit which may allow for some development this weekend. You can see the developing circulation perfectly in this link.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Gulf_Mexico

[crimi481]

Jeff did great job - summarizing all the potential unknowns we all have been looking for. Glad he cleared it up.
But it is fun trying to put puzzle together, as atmospheric conditions on/surrouning Gulf has
really been a challenge last few years.(since Spring og BP bungle) Storms just seem to ...vanish

Off topic - and I know nothing (disclaimer)

[canes04]

Disorganized yes, but well on its way. Where is the invest?

[GCANE]

Very high rain-rate cell firing - nearly hot-tower level

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... xico.0.jpg

[ROCK]

looking at SAT loop invest tag coming shortly...


right off the NW edge of the Yucatan...little east of where it was yesterday....and banding starting to happen as WXMN57 said..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[crimi481]

Glad you showed us that colorized pic of"Tower'

Beggining to lean to the dual systems theory. One forming there in S.E. Gulf - one on tip of Yucatan
Could get interesting to observe. S.W. Florida may get drenched in time

[petit_bois]

I don't like the idea of this sitting around in the gulf for a few days...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, very impressive mass of convection which has fired within the past 4-6 hours through the Yucatan Channel.

[chaser1]

I don't like the idea of this sitting around in the gulf for a few days...

Am seriously thinking Redux: Elena 1985

[canes04]

46 pages for a non invest!

[ROCK]

12Z NAM leaves it in the GOM....trof misses it....so 1 westward solution in the books today....

[ROCK]

12Z GFS still thinking Eastern solution....out 66hrs...doesnt do much with intensity though...

[ROCK]

69hr one strung out lower pressure area in the GOM....inching over towards FL.....whatever that is....


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

day 4 still sitting in the EGOM....la de da....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[ROCK]

yeah I would say the GFS is all over this one for sure....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS is still having feedback issues, trash this run!

[ROCK]

ok I am done....this is Day 5 of the 12Z GFS..... no help whatsoever....at no point did this model run come close to a rational solution. I award it no points and as of now turn towards the mighty CMC and EURO for guidance.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[crimi481]

Last few frames shows decent Banding forming over S.W. Florida
I have visual of them overhead as well. Good wind gusts now
Should I bring Tomato plants in?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Shear still coming down. where the developing low is there is no shear. to the north is slowly decreasing. should be good in about 24 hours.

[Rgv20]

IMO GFS continues to be way to fast in moving this disturbance to the east....By Monday it already crossed Florida according to the GFS..