NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

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SFLcane
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#901 Postby SFLcane » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:24 am

Still quite disorganized but as tpc suggest windshear may slacken of a bit which may allow for some development this weekend. You can see the developing circulation perfectly in this link.

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/2km.php?loop=1&type=vis&region=Gulf_Mexico
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#902 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:32 am

Jeff did great job - summarizing all the potential unknowns we all have been looking for. Glad he cleared it up.
But it is fun trying to put puzzle together, as atmospheric conditions on/surrouning Gulf has
really been a challenge last few years.(since Spring og BP bungle) Storms just seem to ...vanish

Off topic - and I know nothing (disclaimer)
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#903 Postby canes04 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:35 am

Disorganized yes, but well on its way. Where is the invest?
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#904 Postby GCANE » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:36 am

Very high rain-rate cell firing - nearly hot-tower level

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... xico.0.jpg
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#905 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:37 am

looking at SAT loop invest tag coming shortly...:)


right off the NW edge of the Yucatan...little east of where it was yesterday....and banding starting to happen as WXMN57 said..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
Last edited by ROCK on Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#906 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:40 am

Glad you showed us that colorized pic of"Tower'

Beggining to lean to the dual systems theory. One forming there in S.E. Gulf - one on tip of Yucatan
Could get interesting to observe. S.W. Florida may get drenched in time
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#907 Postby petit_bois » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:41 am

I don't like the idea of this sitting around in the gulf for a few days...
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#908 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:42 am

Yeah, very impressive mass of convection which has fired within the past 4-6 hours through the Yucatan Channel.
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Re:

#909 Postby chaser1 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:45 am

petit_bois wrote:I don't like the idea of this sitting around in the gulf for a few days...


Am seriously thinking Redux: Elena 1985
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#910 Postby canes04 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:45 am

46 pages for a non invest! :D
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#911 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:49 am

12Z NAM leaves it in the GOM....trof misses it....so 1 westward solution in the books today.... :lol:
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#912 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:50 am

12Z GFS still thinking Eastern solution....out 66hrs...doesnt do much with intensity though...
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#913 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:52 am

69hr one strung out lower pressure area in the GOM....inching over towards FL.....whatever that is.... :lol:


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#914 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:57 am

day 4 still sitting in the EGOM....la de da....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#915 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 10:59 am

yeah I would say the GFS is all over this one for sure.... :lol: :lol: :lol:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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#916 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:01 am

12z GFS is still having feedback issues, trash this run!
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#917 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:03 am

ok I am done....this is Day 5 of the 12Z GFS..... :lol: :lol: no help whatsoever....at no point did this model run come close to a rational solution. I award it no points and as of now turn towards the mighty CMC and EURO for guidance.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#918 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:05 am

Last few frames shows decent Banding forming over S.W. Florida
I have visual of them overhead as well. Good wind gusts now
Should I bring Tomato plants in?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-rgb.html
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Re: NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC

#919 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:06 am

Shear still coming down. where the developing low is there is no shear. to the north is slowly decreasing. should be good in about 24 hours.

Image
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#920 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Jun 21, 2012 11:08 am

IMO GFS continues to be way to fast in moving this disturbance to the east....By Monday it already crossed Florida according to the GFS..
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