ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[southerngale]

The USA hasn't had a June hurricane since 1986, when Hurricane Bonnie hit the Upper Texas coast. (High Island landfall) Climatologically, it's rather unusual.


1986 - Hurricane Bonnie - SE TX
1972 - Hurricane Agnes - FL Panhandle
1966 - Hurricane Alma - FL Panhandle
1957 - Hurricane Audrey - SW LA / SE TX

[thetruesms]

What's the recon schedule? They cancelled the flight today, right? Are they flying it tomorrow?

Yes to both. Well, at least rescheduled for tomorrow - it obviously would be canceled if there's still no need

[tolakram]

If there are no further active runs happening then it's time to take this to the discussion thread, or perhaps take a break. Thanks.

Posts have been deleted. Please refrain from posts not directly related to model runs. Take respectful discussions to the discussion thread.

[Zanthe]

I think one of the local pro mets in Houston said that if Debby forms, this would be the first time ever to have 4 names storms in June.

Pretty much! 2005 holds the first four record thing. That was hurricane...Dennis, i think.

[FutureEM]

This has been a surprisingly active early season...

[Air Force Met]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Based on the organization of invest 96L on radar and the good outflow of the system. I believe that Invest 96L is a tropical depression right now.

I would have to disagree. There is no defined center and the convection is a mess. Most of what is being seen on IR is debris clouds from the earlier convective blowup. The convection that is there is not that deep. YOu've got shear coming on from the west...and shear going out from the convection...meeting over the very broad center....which is why there is no convection going on there: downward vertical motion.

Now it is certainly better organized than it was 24 hours ago. It has a definite closed low. It's just very broad. It does have a really good mid level vorticity going right on the NE coast of the Yucatan where some of the convection is firing. This is where I suspect the LLC will tuck later tonight when the convection really re-fires.

[Ivanhater]

Typical pulsing during early formation stages

[Ivanhater]

If you are going to make a personal forecast like she will move west or move east ADD THE DISCLAIMER.

Moderators are having to go back and add them....warnings will be next.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Typical pulsing during early formation stages

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif

That agrees with the post above yours. Could I please have a link to that?

[cycloneye]

Interesting graphic of Yucatan wind directions. This was at 15:00z

[cycloneye]

A reminder to the members to include our disclaimer if you are going to make a forecast or statement,thanks for your cooperation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

You can see the consolidating center pretty well on the visible loop. Mostly thanks to the weakening convection.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Here is some video I took of an outer band moving through St. Petersburg yesterday afternoon. View it full screen to see the best view of the wind and quick moving clouds.
http://youtu.be/XLbVbBrWi8M

[Ivanhater]

Many of you remember Derek Ortt...here is his thoughts on the Pensacola News Journal

http://www.pnj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/articl ... 2306220022

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[OuterBanker]

In the meantime the trough is already in western/central NC and VA fireing off a line of tstorms. Currently the trough trails off to the wsw after the Carolinas and not into the Gulf. If it does not deepen I can't see it picking it up. Looks like loitering in the Gulf is more and more likely.

[psyclone]

You can see the consolidating center pretty well on the visible loop. Mostly thanks to the weakening convection.

Is that a surface circulation or a MLC destined to soon fizzle with the weakening of convection? I would suspect it's the latter.

[Ivanhater]

Intensity models are inline for a favorable environment in the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has moved out into the BOC with convection firing underneath.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

This, IMHO, is our area to watch.

Good outflow channels present to help UL ventilation.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=