ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re: Re:

#901 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:00 pm

cycloneye wrote:
NDG wrote:I still stand by my estimate.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 546_an.gif


Do you agree with the 00z Best Track position?

233N 879W


That's funny. Hand to G-D I didn't see your post before I posted my coordinates...but as you can see y my position...that's where I would put it.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#902 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:11 pm

When it says
"FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z"
what does that mean?
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#903 Postby JonathanBelles » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:12 pm

The models remain split down the middle, but hurricane hunters will investigate tomorrow afternoon. 3-4" of rain expected on the Florida gulf coast. What made the NHC bump it up the 80%, and what happens after 24 hours?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... continues/

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: Re:

#904 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:13 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
NDG wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Could I please have a link to that loop?


Here is the link, you have to create it where you want it centered and which satellites to use.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gini_sat.html

What settings do you use?


I use the "1 KM Vis East Conus", then on the bottom I input the coordinates where I want it centered, then the zoom in or zoom out percentage that I want, then select either single image, gif loop or java loop.
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

Re:

#905 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:disregard that little eddy. keep focus on the convection sse of there.


Problem is: There isn't a lot of convection out there over water and never the center. Tops out there near the center now are only around 30-35K feet...which means its mostly debris cirrus and stratiform showers. No latent heat being produced from those...and no lowering of pressure.

Also note the winds and pressure at buoy 42001. That's the lowest pressure and winds blowing away. Its massive divergence if the low tries to form further east...but it has the lowest pressure so that shows you (as do the winds) that the broad low pressure is still south of there.

We need at least another round of explosive convection. Some is firing of over the Yucatan. It will be interesting to see if it daisy-chains to the north later tonight along the convergence line. Not sure it will near the broad low center. There is some convergence aloft up there and tropical thunderstorms don't like that. That will have to change before we get a refire near the center.
0 likes   

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re:

#906 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:15 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:When it says
"FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z"
what does that mean?


Its the 2nd flight on the plan and "Teal 71" will be the call sign.

24/1200,1800Z means the flight is scheduled to make 12z and 18z center fixes (8am and 2pm ET) on the 24th.
0 likes   

User avatar
KatDaddy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2815
Joined: Mon Oct 21, 2002 6:23 pm
Location: League City, Texas

#907 Postby KatDaddy » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:16 pm

AFM is correct. Its a large broad low. I pointed out both a small swirl which I referenced as a LLC and mid-level circulation this evening. Looking for deep convection for the next step of development.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

#908 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:17 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/QUOTE]

Recon will find a tropical depression or tropical storm tomorrow. Invest 96L has been gradually organizing know and continues to tighten up its low-level center. It's mid-level center is only slightly displaced to the south and east, nothing of which it won't be able to fix quite rapidly. The RAP Model 10 meter winds display on my GREarth shows the system has a closed circulation, albeit a bit elongated. Conditions are becoming increasingly more favorable, and should be conducive for further organization as it moves slowly north towards the Central Gulf tomorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22979
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#909 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:25 pm

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...
0 likes   

User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#910 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:31 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

I'm thinking the latter, lol.
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#911 Postby Macrocane » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:32 pm

ROCK wrote:not familair with that model? is that experimental?



Yes, it's experimental, I have been following since for over a year, it's better than NOGAPS and UKMET IMO and most of the times is in agreement with the GFS.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6367
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#912 Postby boca » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:37 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

I'm thinking the latter, lol.


Why would it go to Fl the trough doesnt extend past the North Carolina and its already at the east coast,so I say west. GFS needs a upgrade. :lol:
0 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#913 Postby psyclone » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

GFS is gonna buckle soon. but 96L is so large a good deal of the gulf coast is destined cash in on some hefty rainfall starting with the west coast of florida tonight.
0 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#914 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...


One question that I have regarding the concensus models, why is the TVCA model persistent in turning it to the right, if the majority of models used for its average are taking it west?
0 likes   

crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#915 Postby crimi481 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:42 pm

The Low that is approx 75 miles off Naples/Ft Myers may be dominant one. Moving N.N.E?
Down to 2 Lows. Other just off Yucatan. Twin Bill - Double header, What else is new in the Gulf. 2-fa's
West half Gulf in trouble it seems. ULL / dry air/ sheer?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Shows up on Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... w&loop=yes
Disclaimer: I know nothing
0 likes   

BobHarlem
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2110
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 6:11 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#916 Postby BobHarlem » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:44 pm

psyclone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

GFS is gonna buckle soon. but 96L is so large a good deal of the gulf coast is destined cash in on some hefty rainfall starting with the west coast of florida tonight.


I don't get this line of thinking, I think all the models are about worthless for here since this system looks horrible on Water Vapor, and almost looks like two areas one a mess near the yucatan, and one a mess near Florida. I think the models are just junk right now.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Zanthe
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 149
Age: 30
Joined: Sat May 26, 2012 9:26 pm
Location: New Castle, PA

#917 Postby Zanthe » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:44 pm

Starting to see some spiraling going on in the last few frames, it looks like to me.
0 likes   
I'm no expert, everything I say should be taken with a large amount of salt. I could easily be very, very wrong.
~Zanthe Go Coyotes~

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#918 Postby NDG » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:49 pm

boca wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

I'm thinking the latter, lol.


Why would it go to Fl the trough doesnt extend past the North Carolina and its already at the east coast,so I say west. GFS needs a upgrade. :lol:


There is another deep trough coming down to the east coast early next week that will erode the eastern extend of the ridge in the southern plains and the western extent of the Atlantic ridge that could leave 96L in another weakness.
I am taking the split between the two, I see that it will meander around the gulf. It usually happens that way when there is such a difference between the two.
Take for instance the current development of 96L, the GFS was showing development in the BOC while the Euro was showing development in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM. Look where is happening, in the central GOM.
0 likes   

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#919 Postby stormhunter7 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:51 pm

Looks like convection is firing to east of COC, in the GOM... this could be the big start 96L needs to get going.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

User avatar
Hurricane Andrew
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1891
Age: 26
Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
Location: KS

#920 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Jun 22, 2012 8:55 pm

0z NAM
Hour 12
1001mb low, elongated, south of the western FL panhandle.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p06012.gif
0 likes   

The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd

Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)

"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests