ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Air Force Met]

I still stand by my estimate.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 546_an.gif

Do you agree with the 00z Best Track position?

233N 879W

That's funny. Hand to G-D I didn't see your post before I posted my coordinates...but as you can see y my position...that's where I would put it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

When it says
"FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z"
what does that mean?

[JonathanBelles]

The models remain split down the middle, but hurricane hunters will investigate tomorrow afternoon. 3-4" of rain expected on the Florida gulf coast. What made the NHC bump it up the 80%, and what happens after 24 hours?

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... continues/

[NDG]

Could I please have a link to that loop?

Here is the link, you have to create it where you want it centered and which satellites to use.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gini_sat.html

What settings do you use?

I use the "1 KM Vis East Conus", then on the bottom I input the coordinates where I want it centered, then the zoom in or zoom out percentage that I want, then select either single image, gif loop or java loop.

[Air Force Met]

disregard that little eddy. keep focus on the convection sse of there.

Problem is: There isn't a lot of convection out there over water and never the center. Tops out there near the center now are only around 30-35K feet...which means its mostly debris cirrus and stratiform showers. No latent heat being produced from those...and no lowering of pressure.

Also note the winds and pressure at buoy 42001. That's the lowest pressure and winds blowing away. Its massive divergence if the low tries to form further east...but it has the lowest pressure so that shows you (as do the winds) that the broad low pressure is still south of there.

We need at least another round of explosive convection. Some is firing of over the Yucatan. It will be interesting to see if it daisy-chains to the north later tonight along the convergence line. Not sure it will near the broad low center. There is some convergence aloft up there and tropical thunderstorms don't like that. That will have to change before we get a refire near the center.

[RL3AO]

When it says
"FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z"
what does that mean?

Its the 2nd flight on the plan and "Teal 71" will be the call sign.

24/1200,1800Z means the flight is scheduled to make 12z and 18z center fixes (8am and 2pm ET) on the 24th.

[KatDaddy]

AFM is correct. Its a large broad low. I pointed out both a small swirl which I referenced as a LLC and mid-level circulation this evening. Looking for deep convection for the next step of development.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/QUOTE]

Recon will find a tropical depression or tropical storm tomorrow. Invest 96L has been gradually organizing know and continues to tighten up its low-level center. It's mid-level center is only slightly displaced to the south and east, nothing of which it won't be able to fix quite rapidly. The RAP Model 10 meter winds display on my GREarth shows the system has a closed circulation, albeit a bit elongated. Conditions are becoming increasingly more favorable, and should be conducive for further organization as it moves slowly north towards the Central Gulf tomorrow.

[wxman57]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

I'm thinking the latter, lol.

[Macrocane]

not familair with that model? is that experimental?

Yes, it's experimental, I have been following since for over a year, it's better than NOGAPS and UKMET IMO and most of the times is in agreement with the GFS.

[boca]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

I'm thinking the latter, lol.

Why would it go to Fl the trough doesnt extend past the North Carolina and its already at the east coast,so I say west. GFS needs a upgrade.

[psyclone]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

GFS is gonna buckle soon. but 96L is so large a good deal of the gulf coast is destined cash in on some hefty rainfall starting with the west coast of florida tonight.

[NDG]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

One question that I have regarding the concensus models, why is the TVCA model persistent in turning it to the right, if the majority of models used for its average are taking it west?

[crimi481]

The Low that is approx 75 miles off Naples/Ft Myers may be dominant one. Moving N.N.E?
Down to 2 Lows. Other just off Yucatan. Twin Bill - Double header, What else is new in the Gulf. 2-fa's
West half Gulf in trouble it seems. ULL / dry air/ sheer?

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

Shows up on Radar: http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... w&loop=yes
Disclaimer: I know nothing

[BobHarlem]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

GFS is gonna buckle soon. but 96L is so large a good deal of the gulf coast is destined cash in on some hefty rainfall starting with the west coast of florida tonight.

I don't get this line of thinking, I think all the models are about worthless for here since this system looks horrible on Water Vapor, and almost looks like two areas one a mess near the yucatan, and one a mess near Florida. I think the models are just junk right now.

[Zanthe]

Starting to see some spiraling going on in the last few frames, it looks like to me.

[NDG]

GFS appears to be all by itself in suggesting a NE movement toward Florida. Maybe it's the best model ever, or maybe there's something wrong with it...

I'm thinking the latter, lol.

Why would it go to Fl the trough doesnt extend past the North Carolina and its already at the east coast,so I say west. GFS needs a upgrade.

There is another deep trough coming down to the east coast early next week that will erode the eastern extend of the ridge in the southern plains and the western extent of the Atlantic ridge that could leave 96L in another weakness.
I am taking the split between the two, I see that it will meander around the gulf. It usually happens that way when there is such a difference between the two.
Take for instance the current development of 96L, the GFS was showing development in the BOC while the Euro was showing development in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM. Look where is happening, in the central GOM.

[stormhunter7]

Looks like convection is firing to east of COC, in the GOM... this could be the big start 96L needs to get going.

[Hurricane Andrew]

0z NAM
Hour 12
1001mb low, elongated, south of the western FL panhandle.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p06012.gif