ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

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Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#961 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 22, 2012 10:59 pm

If you take the GFS and remove the random storm to its east it would do exactly what every other model is doing and send it west

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#962 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:00 pm

Don't know how much difference it will make in the long term latest tafb map cycloneye posted shows the front making it almost down to baton rouge. Was supposed to stall along la/ ark border. Maybe nothing or maybe more shear in the northern gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#963 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:00 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#964 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:01 pm



Yup, as usual, heading towards the weakness left behind by Ernesto
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#965 Postby Jevo » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:02 pm

0z GFS Initialized
Image

0z GFS +24
Image

0z GFS +48
Image
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#966 Postby lester » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:03 pm

GFS shows 96L landfall in tampa at 96 hours
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#967 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:05 pm

0zGFS does it again....splits off the energy and develops another TC in the Atlantic and follows the weakness cause by the phantom storm....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#968 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:06 pm

There is at least a brief hint of an Ernesto on both the GFDL and HWRF 96L models too E of FL or near Bermuda also

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#969 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:06 pm

We need the Gulfstream Jet to sample the upper enviroment,and maybe the models do a better job. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#970 Postby Jevo » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:07 pm

0z GFS +72
Image

0z GFS +96
Image

0z GFS Landfall Prediction +102
Image
Last edited by Jevo on Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#971 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:08 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:There is at least a brief hint of an Ernesto on both the GFDL and HWRF 96L models too E of FL or near Bermuda also

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


The thing is if something like this happens, it would throw a monkey wrench in all the models except the GFS

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#972 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:10 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The thing is if something like this happens, it would throw a monkey wrench in all the models except the GFS


True, though GFS is notorious for doing this kind of thing through convective feedback, so one has to be biased against the creation of an Ernesto. Also, due to its shear size, Debbie will shear away any other low in the area.
Last edited by vaffie on Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#973 Postby Riptide » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:10 pm

This is quite possibly the weirdest GFS model run I have seen in quite some time, not seeing how that trough is going to completely remove Debby.

Edit: Heading into the Atlantic at hr120.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#974 Postby ROCK » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:12 pm

now what do you do if the CMC and EURO later show a west solution? the NHC is going to have a tough call!!
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#975 Postby lester » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:12 pm

Image

this would be horrible if this verified
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Re:

#976 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:14 pm

lester wrote:this would be horrible if this verified


Yes indeed, look how dry Texas is throughout the week. Two diametrically opposed outcomes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#977 Postby Riptide » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:14 pm

132

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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#978 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:17 pm

Only reason gfs is showing this moving east now is not because of trof picking it up but another system developimg off se coast no later than Monday leaving a weakness behind . No other models have shown a hint of this so as usual think the gfs is wrong again. Have to give it credit it is persistent :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#979 Postby Riptide » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:21 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Only reason gfs is showing this moving east now is not because of trof picking it up but another system developimg off se coast no later than Monday leaving a weakness behind . No other models have shown a hint of this so as usual think the gfs is wrong again. Have to give it credit it is persistent :roll:

The GFS is trying to create a Beryl redux right now....it will fall short though because there is another shortwave digging into the Great Lakes.

:lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#980 Postby vaffie » Fri Jun 22, 2012 11:23 pm

ok dokie, when's the CMC coming out?
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