ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

If you take the GFS and remove the random storm to its east it would do exactly what every other model is doing and send it west

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Don't know how much difference it will make in the long term latest tafb map cycloneye posted shows the front making it almost down to baton rouge. Was supposed to stall along la/ ark border. Maybe nothing or maybe more shear in the northern gulf.

[bamajammer4eva]

90 hr headed for Tampa

http://instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012062300&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=090

[vaffie]

90 hr headed for Tampa

http://instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012062300&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=090

Yup, as usual, heading towards the weakness left behind by Ernesto

[Jevo]

0z GFS Initialized


0z GFS +24


0z GFS +48

[lester]

GFS shows 96L landfall in tampa at 96 hours

[Rgv20]

0zGFS does it again....splits off the energy and develops another TC in the Atlantic and follows the weakness cause by the phantom storm....

[bamajammer4eva]

There is at least a brief hint of an Ernesto on both the GFDL and HWRF 96L models too E of FL or near Bermuda also

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

We need the Gulfstream Jet to sample the upper enviroment,and maybe the models do a better job.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +72


0z GFS +96


0z GFS Landfall Prediction +102

[Hurricaneman]

There is at least a brief hint of an Ernesto on both the GFDL and HWRF 96L models too E of FL or near Bermuda also

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

The thing is if something like this happens, it would throw a monkey wrench in all the models except the GFS

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[vaffie]

The thing is if something like this happens, it would throw a monkey wrench in all the models except the GFS

True, though GFS is notorious for doing this kind of thing through convective feedback, so one has to be biased against the creation of an Ernesto. Also, due to its shear size, Debbie will shear away any other low in the area.

[Riptide]

This is quite possibly the weirdest GFS model run I have seen in quite some time, not seeing how that trough is going to completely remove Debby.

Edit: Heading into the Atlantic at hr120.

[ROCK]

now what do you do if the CMC and EURO later show a west solution? the NHC is going to have a tough call!!

[lester]

this would be horrible if this verified

[vaffie]

this would be horrible if this verified

Yes indeed, look how dry Texas is throughout the week. Two diametrically opposed outcomes.

[Riptide]

132

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Only reason gfs is showing this moving east now is not because of trof picking it up but another system developimg off se coast no later than Monday leaving a weakness behind . No other models have shown a hint of this so as usual think the gfs is wrong again. Have to give it credit it is persistent

[Riptide]

Only reason gfs is showing this moving east now is not because of trof picking it up but another system developimg off se coast no later than Monday leaving a weakness behind . No other models have shown a hint of this so as usual think the gfs is wrong again. Have to give it credit it is persistent

The GFS is trying to create a Beryl redux right now....it will fall short though because there is another shortwave digging into the Great Lakes.

[vaffie]

ok dokie, when's the CMC coming out?