ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at this WV loop, it certainly seems like the weakness to the north of Debbie is materializing....notice the trough digging over the Great Lakes. In 48 hours the GFS expect this to really create a weakness along the Eastern Seaboard and pull Debbie into it. Going to be interesting to see if this unfolds:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Is that another ULL center forming south of the Southeast LA Coast?

[psyclone]

Get ready Pinellas County...for the first time with this system looks like a feeder band is going to come through starting in St. Petersburg in about 30 minutes...the bands have been falling apart south of Tampa Bay this entire afternoon, but looks like this one will stay in tact.

those twin tornadic signatures offshore are impressive. the one to the northwest looks to be on a trajectory that would keep it offshore but the one to the southeast could approach western manatee around anna maria island and then the southern pinellas county region if it holds together.

Yeah that's a healthy one. Based on what I was watching earlier they seem to last like 30 mins or so, then its quiet (mesocyclone speaking), then another bunch of 'em will spin up in like 1 hour after that.

I'm guessing that a more unstable maritime airmass is advecting north along the west coast allowing convection better survival compared to earlier today. gonna be a very wet period around here.

[crimi481]

Looking at this WV loop, it certainly seems like the weakness to the north of Debbie is materializing....notice the trough digging over the Great Lakes. In 48 hours the GFS expect this to really create a weakness along the Eastern Seaboard and pull Debbie into it. Going to be interesting to see if this unfolds:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Is that another ULL center forming south of the LA Coast?

Just noticed that as well - could be.
Whatever kind of Mid/ Low/ Upper valley Storm thingt Debbie is - its getting stronger fast. The 10-20" rain forecast 3-4 days ago for Florida locations - may be in play.

[gulfcoastdave]

Time to come out or lurking for the season. I have been reading the post and looking at threads. I would think a more north and east move by the NHC by sunday afternoon based upon the info we have here

good to see the old timers here

[lebron23]

Time to come out or lurking for the season. I have been reading the post and looking at threads. I would think a more north and east move by the NHC by sunday afternoon based upon the info we have here

good to see the old timers here

Maybe a bit north..maybe.

[bamajammer4eva]

Not sure if I am reading right since only the B/W map is coming out but if so, the Canadian has it very near PCB in 48 hrs (Thats where the dot below the L is)

And Tallahassee at 60 HRS

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

[Snow Deprived365]

Please, PLEASE send it our way here in Texas....

WE NEED IT.

I would guess part of Lake Travis. Im in Houston and would like to get some rain but would love to see a big dent in -40ft Travis.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm sorry, but the Tropical Forecast Points when placed on this loop are missed well to the north and east already or my eyes are playing tricks on me!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[crimi481]

Time to come out or lurking for the season. I have been reading the post and looking at threads. I would think a more north and east move by the NHC by sunday afternoon based upon the info we have here

good to see the old timers here

Maybe a bit north..maybe.

Yes -I am old G.C.
That Tower lining up with Sarasota/Bradenton area (I am in Englewwod)
Are you in Tampa?

[gatorcane]

Impressive -- the feeder band approaching Tampa Bay appears to be showing some reds on the radar and is actually getting stronger. Will be interesting what conditions are seen across the Bay area from this one.

[thundercam96]

Not sure if I am reading right since only the B/W map is coming out but if so, the Canadian has it very near PCB in 48 hrs (Thats where the dot below the L is)

And Tallahassee at 60 HRS

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

Almost Looks Like It Has It Making Landfall In The Big Bend, If Im Reading It Correctly

[Sean in New Orleans]

This is going to cause some major coastal flooding along Lousiana's coast this week. A slowly moving hurricane towards Texas for 4 or 5 days just under Lousiana's coast?....they better break out the sandbags.

[thetruesms]

Somebody at the NHC or whoever updated the GFS is going to get fired. I don't know who will turn out to be right (Iv'e learned in the past not to challenge the NHC), but heads will roll. "If" the GFS turns out to be wrong, how embarrassing! People will really question it's future runs.

I think Stewart explained it well. GFS assumes a weaker storm. We know models have a hard time with intensity so this should come as no surprise that with this kind of setup the paths will diverge so much. What separates the professionals from the amateurs is how they view the models ... as tools, not sports teams. They look at all the data, come to understand why a model might be wrong, and discard all or part of the solution.

Once the GFS has the data to come around to a "correct" solution then it may or may not be more accurate than the Euro as far as intensity and landfall. It would never be ignored or discounted because of one bad call. If the GFS is having repeated issues with intensity then that fact would have to be weighed when using the model.

I do agree, though, that the update applied sometime last year appears to have made the GFS worse and I would have thought it would have been corrected by now ... but I don't have any data to back that up as a fact.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

for your first paragraph.

Looking at the verification stats, and this is admittedly a very small sample, the GFS is doing a little worse with respect to the Euro in the extratropics, and slightly better than it had been with respect to the Euro in the tropics. But the differences are so minor as to be essentially non-existent.

[HouTXmetro]

Looking at this WV loop, it certainly seems like the weakness to the north of Debbie is materializing....notice the trough digging over the Great Lakes. In 48 hours the GFS expect this to really create a weakness along the Eastern Seaboard and pull Debbie into it. Going to be interesting to see if this unfolds:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

Is that another ULL center forming south of the Southeast LA Coast?

I doubt it. Looks more like an illusion. It's well within the existing ULL.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/ind ... channel=wv

[crimi481]

See how the 3 areas of storms are converging on W. Central Fl?
Will be Trop storm winds here soon. Big squals.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I need coffee

[thundercam96]

I'm sorry, but the Tropical Forecast Points when placed on this loop are missed well to the north and east already or my eyes are playing tricks on me!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I Agree. It's Missed The So Called "Turn" ( So I Think )

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian has Deb near Coastal Ga/FL at 72 hrs

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 92_100.gif

[thundercam96]

Canadian has Deb near Coastal Ga/FL at 72 hrs

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 92_100.gif

That's 0Z Run Is'nt It? It's Joining GFS

[vaffie]

It seems that in the past several satellite picture frames that the convection is blowing up closer and closer to the LLC due to the falling shear levels. At the current rate of change, by my calculations, by 3 am central time, the LLC will be stacked with strong convection and the storm will start to take a different kind of look.

My opinion

[Jevo]

0z HWRF Initialized


0z HWRF +12


0z HWRF +24