tolakram wrote:HouTXmetro wrote:Somebody at the NHC or whoever updated the GFS is going to get fired. I don't know who will turn out to be right (Iv'e learned in the past not to challenge the NHC), but heads will roll. "If" the GFS turns out to be wrong, how embarrassing! People will really question it's future runs.
I think Stewart explained it well. GFS assumes a weaker storm. We know models have a hard time with intensity so this should come as no surprise that with this kind of setup the paths will diverge so much. What separates the professionals from the amateurs is how they view the models ... as tools, not sports teams. They look at all the data, come to understand why a model might be wrong, and discard all or part of the solution.
Once the GFS has the data to come around to a "correct" solution then it may or may not be more accurate than the Euro as far as intensity and landfall. It would never be ignored or discounted because of one bad call. If the GFS is having repeated issues with intensity then that fact would have to be weighed when using the model.
I do agree, though, that the update applied sometime last year appears to have made the GFS worse and I would have thought it would have been corrected by now ... but I don't have any data to back that up as a fact.
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for your first paragraph.
Looking at the verification stats, and this is admittedly a very small sample, the GFS is doing a little worse with respect to the Euro in the extratropics, and slightly better than it had been with respect to the Euro in the tropics. But the differences are so minor as to be essentially non-existent.