ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

12z CMC says bye.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

I would have to say, if you look that the 500mb heights to the north of debbie as she leaves florida and begins to slow and almost stall. its in a very precarious spot again and if something like that were to happen. its possible it could wobble back to the coast depending on how far east the ridging extends during that time frame.

[Aric Dunn]

well not surprised to see multiple vorts again.

[tolakram]

12z GFS and Canadian





CMC dissipates Debbie after 96 hours

[ozonepete]

well not surprised to see multiple vorts again.

And we could have days of them, lol...

[AHS2011]

It seems like she's trying to organize.

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 251725
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042012
A. 25/17:03:00Z
B. 29 deg 03 min N
085 deg 30 min W
C. 850 mb 1393 m
D. 33 kt
E. 225 deg 55 nm
F. 317 deg 25 kt
G. 226 deg 74 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 17 C / 1494 m
J. 20 C / 1491 m
K. 17 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF309 0404A DEBBY OB 12
MAX FL WIND 57 KT SE QUAD 13:55:40Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 46 KT NW QUAD 17:20:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[northjaxpro]

I would have to say, if you look that the 500mb heights to the north of debbie as she leaves florida and begins to slow and almost stall. its in a very precarious spot again and if something like that were to happen. its possible it could wobble back to the coast depending on how far east the ridging extends during that time frame.

That is what is worrying me just a bit. This is a classic COL region Debby is caught in as she is stuck in between the Central U.S. ridge and the East Coast trough. I mean, even if Debby somehow managed to get just east of FL, the East Coast trough may lift out and leave her stuck until some type of "kicker" comes along to finally grab the system. I have a hard time seeing Debby staying intact through all of this though. We'll see.

I tell you one thing, Debby will rank for me and many others I'm sure of being one of the most perplexing storms to get a handle on that's for certain.

[Aric Dunn]

It seems like she's trying to organize.

well it will take more time to moisten up the atmosphere again.

[tallywx]

Not a lot of wind around this circulation anymore. Tallahassee is near/under some of the deepest convection around the center itself and is only sustained at 16 mph.

[sponger]

Here is a link to one of the larger set waces at the Pensacola Pier yesterday. Wow!!!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZE98Lu4YTZk/T-eTcV5vKkI/AAAAAAAAFhg/IF5OX7yag70/s1600/Sunday%20evening%2006242012%20169.JPG

[gatorcane]

Winds across peninsula Florida and adjacent waters. Notice the large area of sustained high winds off the west coast of Florida (big area of green and yellow shading). Strongest winds remaining offshore:



Some observation history from St. Pete-Clearwater airport showing some very breezy conditions:



http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPIE.html

[GCANE]

Pretty nice cirrus building with the flare.

Getting closer to the LLC now.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 251145.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 251749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
100 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM DESTIN TO ENGLEWOOD

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
DEBBY IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
MUCH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST. DEBBY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST TODAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND AT
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

APALACHEE BAY TO WACCASASSA BAY...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF WACCASASSA BAY...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LOCAL MAXIMUM
OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN

[SeminoleWind]

looks as if Debby is trying to wash out some of that dry air

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone moving a bit closer and ULL moving a bit farther away.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

TORNADO WATCH 427 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC001-003-007-009-015-017-019-021-023-027-029-031 -035-041-043-
047-049-051-053-055-057-061-065-067-069-071-073-07 5-079-081-083-
085-089-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-111-11 5-117-119-121-
123-125-127-129-260300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0427.120625T1750Z-120626T0300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
BREVARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
CLAY COLLIER COLUMBIA
DESOTO DIXIE DUVAL
FLAGLER GILCHRIST GLADES
HAMILTON HARDEE HENDRY
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
INDIAN RIVER JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE
LAKE LEE LEON
LEVY MADISON MANATEE
MARION MARTIN NASSAU
OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA
PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS
POLK PUTNAM SARASOTA
SEMINOLE ST. JOHNS ST. LUCIE
SUMTER SUWANNEE TAYLOR
UNION VOLUSIA WAKULLA


AMZ452-454-550-552-555-610-650-GMZ656-730-765-830- 850-853-856-
260300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0427.120625T1750Z-120626T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM

VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM

SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM

TAMPA BAY WATERS

COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM

COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MFL...MLB...

[GCANE]

looks as if Debby is trying to wash out some of that dry air

About 7hrs of sun left that could help heat the core up a bit as it interacts with that cirrus.

[seaswing]

From Twitter:

@TWC_Shawn: The Governor of Florida declares a State of Emergency due to Tropical Storm #Debby. No Nat'l Guard deployment at this time. #FLwx.

Glad to hear he went ahead and did this. Until he does it, no state or federal offices, schools, etc. can close.

[crimi481]

Wind field expanding. Few more 60 + gusts near Pt Charlotte / Venice here in last hour
"If "that N Quad cluster is a reflection of the center - and gets entrained - should have rapid intensification
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html