Global model runs discussion

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mcheer23
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3901 Postby mcheer23 » Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:46 am

Hmm..something tells me people will follow the GFS a lot more closely with our next named storm
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3902 Postby barometerJane61 » Wed Jun 27, 2012 10:13 am

Kingarabian wrote:
ROCK wrote:I hear ya....supposed to be 110F here in Pearland (near Galveston) on Tuesday....We are baking over here....

Debbie would have been nice huh... Well on to the next! If there is as El-Nino seems to be intensifying.


We may get the tropical storm factory closed down by August if El Nino continues to grow.Even in an El Nino year we could see at least one freak strong hurricane(Andrew)
I am alittle concerned for California this fall.Strong el nino means torrential rain there,and extremely wet where I live-Texas :eek:
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3903 Postby ROCK » Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:45 am

mcheer23 wrote:Hmm..something tells me people will follow the GFS a lot more closely with our next named storm



I doubt it....still 2nd in verification to the EURO...always has been...
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3904 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:48 am

ROCK wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:Hmm..something tells me people will follow the GFS a lot more closely with our next named storm



I doubt it....still 2nd in verification to the EURO...always has been...


:lol: :lol:

You've convinced me the only solution is to make an unofficially official forecast counter to see which model does better. Your ignoring the fact GFS has had upgrades as had CMC which both did signficantly better than EURO ever did with Debby. A three way counter I say! May the best model win!

You can't ignore GFS did absolutely NAIL that forecast ROCK. 8-)
Last edited by Weatherfreak000 on Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3905 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:50 am

Ok folks,let's not start a model war here,thank you.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3906 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:58 am

cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's not start a model war here,thank you.


Especially when there isnt showing a thing on either model..And I dont think much should be expected based on the fact we have had 5 storms(1 unnamed) already and its not even July..I just have a gut feeling were gonna have an eventless majority of July..
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3907 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:46 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's not start a model war here,thank you.


Especially when there isnt showing a thing on either model..And I dont think much should be expected based on the fact we have had 5 storms(1 unnamed) already and its not even July..I just have a gut feeling were gonna have an eventless majority of July..


When and where was this unnamed storm?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3908 Postby Chickenzilla » Wed Jun 27, 2012 4:55 pm

IIRC it was the Invest 92L. It existed near the Canary isles in May.
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#3909 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 28, 2012 3:54 pm

Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

192 hrs.

Image
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Re:

#3910 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:01 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


And here it is.

Image
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Re: Re:

#3911 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:07 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


And here it is.

[img]http://oi46.tinypic.com/23u3ngw.jpg[/mg]


Thats the first one that comes off the one I'm talking about is at 168 hours out.
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Re: Re:

#3912 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html


And here it is.

[img]http://oi46.tinypic.com/23u3ngw.jpg[/mg]


Thats the first one that comes off the one I'm talking about is at 168 hours out.


Ok good. :) Let's wait and see in one week what occurs.
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#3913 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jun 28, 2012 4:28 pm

yep, well with it being such a large feature I would bet money that something close to that comes off the coast.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3914 Postby ROCK » Thu Jun 28, 2012 11:26 pm

0Z NOGAPS....still has our little friend coming into the carib.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3915 Postby floridasun78 » Fri Jun 29, 2012 12:08 am

ROCK wrote:0Z NOGAPS....still has our little friend coming into the carib.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

only Model that do something with that wave
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3916 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2012 6:47 am

The 00z ECMWF starts developing a couple of systems in the EPAC by 168 hours and here they are at 240 hours. On the Atlantic side,both Euro/GFS have anything of significance at this time.

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3917 Postby ROCK » Sun Jul 01, 2012 5:53 pm

not seeing much on any GFS run and even the NOGAPS is quiet....too quiet... :lol:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


we got some potential out there...the GOM is real toasty.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3918 Postby MGC » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:08 pm

Even the Canadian is quite....MGC
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3919 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:15 pm

We may have a lull in the North Atlantic side until a little after Mid-July if the models are right about the return of the wet phase of MJO by that timeframe.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#3920 Postby somethingfunny » Sun Jul 01, 2012 8:15 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 00z ECMWF starts developing a couple of systems in the EPAC by 168 hours and here they are at 240 hours. On the Atlantic side,both Euro/GFS have anything of significance at this time.

Image


The GFS has had this since we were tracking the precursor to Debby. :wink: It's the wave formerly known as 97L.
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