Global model runs discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- mcheer23
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 436
- Age: 32
- Joined: Sun Jun 24, 2012 8:24 pm
- Location: Sugar Land, Texas
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Hmm..something tells me people will follow the GFS a lot more closely with our next named storm
0 likes
- barometerJane61
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 51
- Joined: Sun May 30, 2010 8:27 am
- Location: Texas
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:ROCK wrote:I hear ya....supposed to be 110F here in Pearland (near Galveston) on Tuesday....We are baking over here....
Debbie would have been nice huh... Well on to the next! If there is as El-Nino seems to be intensifying.
We may get the tropical storm factory closed down by August if El Nino continues to grow.Even in an El Nino year we could see at least one freak strong hurricane(Andrew)
I am alittle concerned for California this fall.Strong el nino means torrential rain there,and extremely wet where I live-Texas

0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
mcheer23 wrote:Hmm..something tells me people will follow the GFS a lot more closely with our next named storm
I doubt it....still 2nd in verification to the EURO...always has been...
0 likes
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
ROCK wrote:mcheer23 wrote:Hmm..something tells me people will follow the GFS a lot more closely with our next named storm
I doubt it....still 2nd in verification to the EURO...always has been...


You've convinced me the only solution is to make an unofficially official forecast counter to see which model does better. Your ignoring the fact GFS has had upgrades as had CMC which both did signficantly better than EURO ever did with Debby. A three way counter I say! May the best model win!
You can't ignore GFS did absolutely NAIL that forecast ROCK.

Last edited by Weatherfreak000 on Wed Jun 27, 2012 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Ok folks,let's not start a model war here,thank you.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's not start a model war here,thank you.
Especially when there isnt showing a thing on either model..And I dont think much should be expected based on the fact we have had 5 storms(1 unnamed) already and its not even July..I just have a gut feeling were gonna have an eventless majority of July..
0 likes
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
- Hurricane Alexis
- Category 2
- Posts: 683
- Age: 29
- Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm
- Location: Miami,Florida
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Ok folks,let's not start a model war here,thank you.
Especially when there isnt showing a thing on either model..And I dont think much should be expected based on the fact we have had 5 storms(1 unnamed) already and its not even July..I just have a gut feeling were gonna have an eventless majority of July..
When and where was this unnamed storm?
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 109
- Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:31 am
- Location: Croatia (Southeast Europe)
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
IIRC it was the Invest 92L. It existed near the Canary isles in May.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
192 hrs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
192 hrs.

0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
And here it is.

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
And here it is.
[img]http://oi46.tinypic.com/23u3ngw.jpg[/mg]
Thats the first one that comes off the one I'm talking about is at 168 hours out.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:cycloneye wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Giant wave/low ( very large) exits africa very far north then dives SW on the EURO long range vary large and euro immediately wants start organizing it. GFS has a similar idea.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html
And here it is.
[img]http://oi46.tinypic.com/23u3ngw.jpg[/mg]
Thats the first one that comes off the one I'm talking about is at 168 hours out.
Ok good.

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
yep, well with it being such a large feature I would bet money that something close to that comes off the coast.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
0Z NOGAPS....still has our little friend coming into the carib.....
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
ROCK wrote:0Z NOGAPS....still has our little friend coming into the carib.....
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
only Model that do something with that wave
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
The 00z ECMWF starts developing a couple of systems in the EPAC by 168 hours and here they are at 240 hours. On the Atlantic side,both Euro/GFS have anything of significance at this time.


0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
not seeing much on any GFS run and even the NOGAPS is quiet....too quiet...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
we got some potential out there...the GOM is real toasty.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
we got some potential out there...the GOM is real toasty.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145332
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
We may have a lull in the North Atlantic side until a little after Mid-July if the models are right about the return of the wet phase of MJO by that timeframe.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
cycloneye wrote:The 00z ECMWF starts developing a couple of systems in the EPAC by 168 hours and here they are at 240 hours. On the Atlantic side,both Euro/GFS have anything of significance at this time.
The GFS has had this since we were tracking the precursor to Debby.

0 likes
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests