EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#161 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 3:45 pm

2 PM PDT advisory probablity of intensity table

Image

Compare it with the 8 AM PDT advisory below.

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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#162 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 5:47 pm

The latest.

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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#163 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 6:33 pm

cycloneye wrote:The latest.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/2lbjmfo.jpg


Looks like an MH to me.
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#164 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:33 pm

MAJOR HURRICANE EMILIA

EP, 05, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1117W, 105, 959, HU
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Re:

#165 Postby Fyzn94 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:36 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:MAJOR HURRICANE EMILIA

EP, 05, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1117W, 105, 959, HU

Gee, what a shocker! :lol:
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#166 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:38 pm

And SSD Dvorak agrees.

10/0000 UTC 13.2N 111.7W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific
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#167 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:44 pm

Look at that well-pronounced stadium effect in the eye and amazing outflow on the west side.

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Last edited by TropicalAnalystwx13 on Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#168 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:56 pm

UW-CIMSS continues to insist Emilia is up to Category 4 intensity. It may not be too far off...

Code: Select all

UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  10 JUL 2012    Time :   000000 UTC
      Lat :   13:14:11 N     Lon :  111:40:53 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                6.1     6.2     6.2

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

 Center Temp : +11.4C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   90km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#169 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 7:58 pm

brunota2003, you said this at 11:44 PM EDT Sunday night.

" I expect that by the 11 pm advisory tomorrow, Emilia will be pushing 110 or 115 knots".

So here we are,congrats for the prediction. :)
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#170 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:07 pm

If trends continue, Emilla will be at 110 knts by 3z.
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#171 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:16 pm

How much days does Emilia have before it "should" start weakening.
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Re:

#172 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:21 pm

Kingarabian wrote:How much days does Emilia have before it "should" start weakening.


One.
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Re:

#173 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:23 pm

Image

I love this image. Emilla is amazing, and it looks like it will undergo more RI.
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#174 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:brunota2003, you said this at 11:44 PM EDT Sunday night.

" I expect that by the 11 pm advisory tomorrow, Emilia will be pushing 110 or 115 knots".

So here we are,congrats for the prediction. :)

Thanks :lol: A little redemption for Daniel...I blew that one out of the water.

Cyclenall wrote:OLDER RESPONSES:

brunota2003 wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Well...looking through the latest, RI may begin within the next 6 to 10 hours. I really don't have time to work with (sitting in an airport), so I'm just going to throw a quick guess out there...90 knots by 11 am tomorrow morning (going to start the 24 hours at 11 am). We'll see how close I am!

Could a mod add the disclaimer? Thanks.

Well, on a computer so I can post a little more now (dial up though...yayy lol).

I'm still sticking with 90 knots by the 11 am advisory, however I believe the real RI is just about to begin. Looking through the latest and greatest, the main RI should begin between 2 and 4 am...and I expect that by the 11 pm advisory tomorrow, Emilia will be pushing 110 or 115 knots. After that, the intensification will slow down...and I can see a peak of 125 or 130 knots.

Your pretty much exactly correct here. This is the third time you have completely nailed a RI forecast.


Same thing :lol: Thanks...though I did completely blow Daniel's episode. I said he'd peaked and no chance of RI...and then Daniel decided to do his own thing. Oh well...and no changes to the forecast.
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#175 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:41 pm

Last visible images of the day loop.

Image
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#176 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:13 pm

Ring around eye.

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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#177 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:Ring around eye.

http://oi47.tinypic.com/n21th1.jpg


Just needs to clear out some more and we'd have a Cat 4/5.
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Re: EPAC: EMILIA - Hurricane

#178 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:34 pm

NHC new peak is 120kts


HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

EMILIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C WRAPPING
THE ENTIRE WAY AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES
OF THE DAY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE THAT WAS OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FREE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T5.5 OR 102
KT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR T6.0 OR 115 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING
EMILIA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN THEREAFTER DUE TO GRADUALLY
DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS FROM DAY 3 TO 5. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMMON IN MATURE HURRICANES LIKE
EMILIA. IF ONE OCCURS...IT WOULD LIKELY PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN THE
INTENSITY EVOLUTION OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. EMILIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED
AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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#179 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 9:47 pm

Anyone here think this has a shot to make it to the CPHC AOR?
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Re:

#180 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Mon Jul 09, 2012 11:00 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Anyone here think this has a shot to make it to the CPHC AOR?

If it's as persistent as Daniel was when he hit a more stable environment and cooler SSTs, then yes. Emilia is much stronger than Daniel was at peak intensity which means it should last longer.
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