
Compare it with the 8 AM PDT advisory below.

Moderator: S2k Moderators
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:MAJOR HURRICANE EMILIA
EP, 05, 2012071000, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1117W, 105, 959, HU
Code: Select all
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2012 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 13:14:11 N Lon : 111:40:53 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.6mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.1 degrees
****************************************************
Kingarabian wrote:How much days does Emilia have before it "should" start weakening.
cycloneye wrote:brunota2003, you said this at 11:44 PM EDT Sunday night.
" I expect that by the 11 pm advisory tomorrow, Emilia will be pushing 110 or 115 knots".
So here we are,congrats for the prediction.
Cyclenall wrote:OLDER RESPONSES:
brunota2003 wrote:brunota2003 wrote:Well...looking through the latest, RI may begin within the next 6 to 10 hours. I really don't have time to work with (sitting in an airport), so I'm just going to throw a quick guess out there...90 knots by 11 am tomorrow morning (going to start the 24 hours at 11 am). We'll see how close I am!
Could a mod add the disclaimer? Thanks.
Well, on a computer so I can post a little more now (dial up though...yayy lol).
I'm still sticking with 90 knots by the 11 am advisory, however I believe the real RI is just about to begin. Looking through the latest and greatest, the main RI should begin between 2 and 4 am...and I expect that by the 11 pm advisory tomorrow, Emilia will be pushing 110 or 115 knots. After that, the intensification will slow down...and I can see a peak of 125 or 130 knots.
Your pretty much exactly correct here. This is the third time you have completely nailed a RI forecast.
Yellow Evan wrote:Anyone here think this has a shot to make it to the CPHC AOR?
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