euro6208 wrote:el nino is here! looks like the west pacific is starting to react as convection is blowing up all over the place even to the international dateline...


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euro6208 wrote:el nino is here! looks like the west pacific is starting to react as convection is blowing up all over the place even to the international dateline...
dexterlabio wrote:we already had 6 named tropical cyclones in WPAC...is this below or above average in terms of the numbers so far?
dexterlabio wrote:everything will really depend on the MJO, I believe. The significant warming of the waters over the Pacific has stopped which is keeping El Nino at bay for now...if MJO returns to WPAC, I expect big time warming and by that time, El Nino might be here officially. It just needs a little push from the MJO. As always been said, El Nino may influence the conditions in the WPAC and raise the TC activity and may as well extend the typhoon season into December.
If I assume it would take 60days for the wet phase pf MJP to return in WPAC since its onset last June, then August is the latest time when we'll see more interesting systems.
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