2012 WPAC season

[cycloneye]

el nino is here! looks like the west pacific is starting to react as convection is blowing up all over the place even to the international dateline...

[euro6208]

although Super Typhoon Guchol peaked at 130 knots category 4, Dr. Ryan Maue PhD in Meteorology believes he peaked at 140 knots category 5 strength. dvorak and satellite estimates from CIMSS all supported cat 5 strength...who knows it could have been higher ...

This is what he has to say:

Super Typhoon Guchol likely reached 140 knots and the post-season analysis will adjust accordingly (at least it should). The final ACE will tally around 27 or 28 probably putting Guchol in the top 5 (1st overall) of the year for the Northern Hemisphere.





we'll see....

[euro6208]

mmm looks like the epac is responding to our future el nino (although i think it's already here) with daniel and emilia. here in the wpac, models don't show any development anytime in the future furthermore, the mjo is over the indian ocean but is expected to return to the western hemisphere. i think this is just the calm before the season really kicks it up a notch as el nino gets stronger.

[dexterlabio]

as far as i remember the real action in the WPAC normally starts during August then peaks at September. If El Nino really kicks in by September and affect the conditions in the WPAC then the peak will likely be on October then extend until December...just like in 2009 and 2006.

i believe we can see some TC development without MJO but that will likely be not so interesting to track. for now we can just enjoy the calm and sunny weather until the wet phase of MJO returns and El Nino manifests in the future. This be a good time to get ready and save energy.

[euro6208]

July update from http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

TSR raises its forecast and anticipates the 2012 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see
activity about 10% above the 1965-2011 climate norm.


May Update was 26/16/9...July update is now 27/17/9 so a little bit more activity.


There is a 45% probability that the 2012 NW Pacific typhoon season ACE index will be above-average
(defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>336)), a 39% likelihood it will be nearnormal (defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (235 to 336) and a 16% chance it
will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<235)).

[dexterlabio]

we already had 6 named tropical cyclones in WPAC...is this below or above average in terms of the numbers so far?

[Typhoon Hunter]

we already had 6 named tropical cyclones in WPAC...is this below or above average in terms of the numbers so far?

The average to date is 5.4 so we are slightly above average in terms of activity. Dread to think what activity we'd see in Wpac if the MJO was stuck over us instead of Indian Ocean / W hemisphere!

[phwxenthusiast]

we'll probably see this quiet regime extend into the latter part of July... many conflicting signals at the moment but CFI and GFS 2 week MJO and OLR forecasts kinda hint at suppressive conditions in the Western Pacific; we could even be slightly below-average as we head into August...

[euro6208]

darn mjo! if you continued moving to the east, we will be mighty active right now but it doesn't matter...this delay in mjo will likely cause our waters/conditions to get even more favorable as our next storms develop (updated page 1), potentially into monster storms...as we head into the *ber* months of the year, it is very dreadful to think what will happen...

[dexterlabio]

everything will really depend on the MJO, I believe. The significant warming of the waters over the Pacific has stopped which is keeping El Nino at bay for now...if MJO returns to WPAC, I expect big time warming and by that time, El Nino might be here officially. It just needs a little push from the MJO. As always been said, El Nino may influence the conditions in the WPAC and raise the TC activity and may as well extend the typhoon season into December.

If I assume it would take 60days for the wet phase pf MJP to return in WPAC since its onset last June, then August is the latest time when we'll see more interesting systems.

[dexterlabio]

the statistical MJO forecast is opposite to the dynamical forecast ensembles. i don't know which is more reliable.

[euro6208]

everything will really depend on the MJO, I believe. The significant warming of the waters over the Pacific has stopped which is keeping El Nino at bay for now...if MJO returns to WPAC, I expect big time warming and by that time, El Nino might be here officially. It just needs a little push from the MJO. As always been said, El Nino may influence the conditions in the WPAC and raise the TC activity and may as well extend the typhoon season into December.

If I assume it would take 60days for the wet phase pf MJP to return in WPAC since its onset last June, then August is the latest time when we'll see more interesting systems.

not only extending 2012 but 2013 might start very early with the first half producing significant storms...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

as others have said, the epac is by far more interesting than the wpac or the atlantic...what does the future have in store for the wpac? i see 5 months of super activity starting next month with a developing el nino and a slew of powerful typhoons...

[RobWESTPACWX]

I saw NOAA just announced the start of El Nino, its going to be interesting the coming month. Aug is typically the most active for the west pac, going to be an interesting month in deed.

[cycloneye]

Is interesting that Ex Daniel has flared a little bit as it approaches the dateline. Will it make a run to redevelop in the WPAC?

[euro6208]

08W is such a large storm with outflow extending to the philippine sea. euro is forecasting tropical cyclone formation in this area later this week and track towards luzon, hainan island and vietnam...

[Typhoon Hunter]

ECM 00z really ramps up Wpac activity with Khanun drifting towards the Koreas followed by Vicente passing south of Hong Kong and hitting Leizhou peninsula and Beibu Gulf followed hot on heels by likely Saola!

[dexterlabio]

interesting times. if both Vicente and Saola ever do emerge in the coming days, that would be a big catch up for the first 2 weeks of july with no activity.

[euro6208]

it was fun tracking all those epac storms (daniel,emilia,and fabio) and admire their beauty like many other storms in this basin, weak or strong. good thing mostly all of them don't affect land but here in the west pacific, we continuously get hit by all of these tropical cyclones causing death and destruction. what a contrast although it is *normal* ...