EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3999
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: Complex off the coast of Florida near Miami
Sanibel wrote:Looks like cyclogenesis to me.
Well, yes (aloft) and no (at the lower levels).
Surface METARs don't trace any semblance of a circulation (aside from the west coast sea breeze), and the spin really isn't showing up at the level of the convective cloud bases (3-4KFT) either. Instead the spin is manifesting itself more where the clouds are starting to produce stratiform mid and upper level debris. If the RUC analysis fields are to be believed, the best vorticity with this feature is somewhere between 700 and 500MB.
0 likes
Re: Complex off the coast of Florida near Miami
The surface winds are out of the north in Pinellas county and out of the SSW just 15 miles east in Tampa. Surface pressure is only down to 29.97 and the wind speed is a whopping 8 MPH. Dry as a bone ATM but might pick up a little moisture once it gets out over the gulf. Worth checking on again tomorrow I guess.
0 likes
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over Florida Peninsula
One look at the dry blue clear patches between the clouds would tell anyone who's lived here the conditions aren't favorable. And it's a little cooler than usual.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145389
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over Florida Peninsula
A new Low has been added in the EGOM on the 06z Surface Analysis.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
cyclonic circulation at the surface is distinct this morning, but a broad & weak one.-
wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22980
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over Florida Peninsula
Nothing to be concerned about. Weak trof in the NE Gulf. Pressures relatively high in the region.
0 likes
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over Florida Peninsula
wxman57 wrote:Nothing to be concerned about. Weak trof in the NE Gulf. Pressures relatively high in the region.
LOL..... I've heard this before!
0 likes
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
12Z GFS briefly closes off our Low in the Gulf......
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
0 likes
-
Dean4Storms
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6358
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
- Location: Miramar Bch. FL
-
northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Weak 1015 mb Low analyzed approximately 28.0 N 84.0W per NHC TWD at 2 p.m.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over Florida Peninsula
There were some low dark scud clouds circulating at a couple hundred feet above the gulf this morning off the west coast of Florida. Without any pressure gradient it will be slow to organize though. The GFS probably has it right, closing it off so we might see at least a depression in a day or so. Some convection this afternoon but several eddy's and no real organization. Be great for the western states if this organized enough to pull some moisture up from the gulf.
0 likes
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf
Just getting back from work, a liitle surpised that this had no mention in the last TWO, looks pretty obvious that a low has formed and is slowly organizing, maybe because of that shear and dry air from the East. 10%?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
flounder_gig
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 7
- Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:17 am
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf
doesn't look good for the Pensacola Air Show tomorrow.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FRIDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...BUT
COVERAGES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FRIDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...BUT
COVERAGES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA.
0 likes
-
stormywaves
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 43
- Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:36 pm
- Location: Houston, Texas (Midtown)
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf
stormywaves wrote:How is this area looking today?
Troughy
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf
Dry air and shear. Even if a circulation did close off at the surface briefly why waste resources investigating it right?
0 likes
Re: EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf
Nimbus wrote:Dry air and shear. Even if a circulation did close off at the surface briefly why waste resources investigating it right?
Shear is not that big of a deal with an anticyclone right on top of it, maybe the dry air and the that the vorticity is too elongated getting absorbed by a larger trough, plus it has not much time left over water.
0 likes