EDIT: Disturbed weather over North Eastern Gulf

[Sanibel]

Looks like cyclogenesis to me.

[AJC3]

Looks like cyclogenesis to me.

Well, yes (aloft) and no (at the lower levels).

Surface METARs don't trace any semblance of a circulation (aside from the west coast sea breeze), and the spin really isn't showing up at the level of the convective cloud bases (3-4KFT) either. Instead the spin is manifesting itself more where the clouds are starting to produce stratiform mid and upper level debris. If the RUC analysis fields are to be believed, the best vorticity with this feature is somewhere between 700 and 500MB.

[Nimbus]

The surface winds are out of the north in Pinellas county and out of the SSW just 15 miles east in Tampa. Surface pressure is only down to 29.97 and the wind speed is a whopping 8 MPH. Dry as a bone ATM but might pick up a little moisture once it gets out over the gulf. Worth checking on again tomorrow I guess.

[Sanibel]

One look at the dry blue clear patches between the clouds would tell anyone who's lived here the conditions aren't favorable. And it's a little cooler than usual.

[cycloneye]

A new Low has been added in the EGOM on the 06z Surface Analysis.

[NDG]

cyclonic circulation at the surface is distinct this morning, but a broad & weak one.

[wxman57]

Nothing to be concerned about. Weak trof in the NE Gulf. Pressures relatively high in the region.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely something near 85W 28N slightly rotating. Will need to monitor it but it has no model support and as wxman57 the pressure are still relatively high.

Right now I would give it a 5% chance just because it's the Gulf, July and more water ahead of it!

[Dean4Storms]

Nothing to be concerned about. Weak trof in the NE Gulf. Pressures relatively high in the region.

LOL..... I've heard this before!

[Sanibel]

I agree with WX57.

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS briefly closes off our Low in the Gulf......

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Dean4Storms]

Can someone Edit the Title to Gulf Low, it's not a peninsula deal anymore!

[northjaxpro]

Weak 1015 mb Low analyzed approximately 28.0 N 84.0W per NHC TWD at 2 p.m.

[Nimbus]

There were some low dark scud clouds circulating at a couple hundred feet above the gulf this morning off the west coast of Florida. Without any pressure gradient it will be slow to organize though. The GFS probably has it right, closing it off so we might see at least a depression in a day or so. Some convection this afternoon but several eddy's and no real organization. Be great for the western states if this organized enough to pull some moisture up from the gulf.

[tailgater]

Just getting back from work, a liitle surpised that this had no mention in the last TWO, looks pretty obvious that a low has formed and is slowly organizing, maybe because of that shear and dry air from the East. 10%?

[flounder_gig]

doesn't look good for the Pensacola Air Show tomorrow.

A SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FRIDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON SATURDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BRING AN INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY...BUT
COVERAGES WILL DECREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE MARINE AREA.

[stormywaves]

How is this area looking today?

[tailgater]

How is this area looking today?

Troughy

[Nimbus]

Dry air and shear. Even if a circulation did close off at the surface briefly why waste resources investigating it right?

[NDG]

Dry air and shear. Even if a circulation did close off at the surface briefly why waste resources investigating it right?

Shear is not that big of a deal with an anticyclone right on top of it, maybe the dry air and the that the vorticity is too elongated getting absorbed by a larger trough, plus it has not much time left over water.