ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

108hr

[Hurricaneman]

108hr

http://i44.photobucket.com/albums/f38/R ... _200wd.gif

There is a clear weakness in the ridge in this run, does this try to go for it or does this not get fully picked up and goes west into Texas or Mexico will be the question

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[RL3AO]

129hr

[ROCK]

got to be seeing the shear....I would think...but the SHIPS forecast was pretty mundane. Not sure why it wouldnt take off since it would be over some of the hottest ssts in the basin...

[Cyclenall]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I would also like to aver that most systems which are on the cusp of rapid intensification, or even steady strengthening, usually show marked characteristics as such...namely, unrestricted or expanding outflow in the N and/or S quadrants, thereby forming a dual outflow channel; ample surrounding moisture at mid-atmospheric levels / 700 mb; and a well-coordinated, vertically stacked circulation at the low and mid-levels, which allows the system to deepen and further tighten / strengthen its low-level vorticity. Equally true is that systems about to dissipate usually show the opposite trends, and that there are common trends: the models forecasted a deepening or a track that was not supported by climatology in a given type of seasonal environment, such as a year with weak Niño conditions by August and a persistent vortex over Canada, both of which tend to result in more upper-level lows, more stable air, and more shear. Also, years with early-season development north of the tropics tend to discourage development in certain areas of the tropics relative to the tracks of the early-season storms, which turned east this year, as in the case of Debby, due to the strong Canadian vortex and the East Coast trough / Plains ridge set-up. So, climatology was really against this system from the beginning, but because the most sophisticated dynamical models analyze the initial conditions and take into account local factors, they often forecast more intensification and more northward tracks, or even falsely prefigure development, in cases such as that of TD 5.

As an aside, the weaker intensity over the next few days makes a track south of Barbados more probable.

Storm2k Disclaimer added

Did you mail this information to the NHC? I don't like what is stated here or agree with it as it sounds like Tropical Storm Ana from 2009 which was garbage. Good to see you on here again.

I swear this happens every time with these CV systems

Convection pops - Why isn't this a TD/TS? It looks amazing. Could be a hurricane within 36 hours.
Convection wanes - Going to dissipate by morning. Looks terrible.
Convection redevelops - Why isn't this a tropical storm yet? Looks great. OMGZZZZZZZZZ IS THAT AN EYE?

I've noticed this too.

[RL3AO]

138hr. Slightly stronger. Near Jamaica.

[RL3AO]

Southerly flow over eastern gulf. Northerly flow over western gulf. North doesn't look impossible maybe if it we're stronger.

Texas looks out of the picture. Look at that ridge!

[RL3AO]

138hr

[SeminoleWind]

So if it starts to really gain strength around Jamaica this could get picked up and send it right into central or eastern Gulf?

[Kingarabian]

Bearing down on the Yucatan @ 168 hours...

[Rgv20]

Thru Wednesday Morning tonight's 0zGFS is almost identical to the 18z with the position of TD5.

156hrs

[Wx_Warrior]

We going to have a player here or does Mr. GFS say "viva la mexico" on the 0z?

[RL3AO]

168

[Kingarabian]

0z is much faster than 18z.

[Kingarabian]

186hrs for the 0z GFS emerging off the Yucatan channel.

[cycloneye]

Yucatan Peninsula into BOC.

[RL3AO]

186 hr

[Wx_Warrior]

Super ridge holding pretty strong thru 192 GFS 0z

[Kingarabian]

We going to have a player here or does Mr. GFS say "viva la mexico" on the 0z?

Viva La Mexico


Into die @ 216hrs.

[ROCK]

186hr for the GFS is la la land, IMO......but it is showing something similar to the EURO with a BOC solution...