ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Sanibel]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The time of the season is important with this system because it has shown-up just at the transition period into prime season conditions. Hostile July conditions are lingering but this system has the advantage of a developed circulation prior to entering the Caribbean. I think it's over the hump and presents a possible danger downstream if it survives and manages to enter the Gulf. It has an untapped area ahead that was showing plenty of cyclone soup to draw upon in the last weeks. SST's in the Lessers will keep this one going IMO.

[tolakram]

Roundup. Looking at vorticity for Euro and GFS since they lose or have a very weak low at the 72 hour frame.

[NDG]

Shear this morning is not as strong as it was last night when I went to bed, UL winds seem to be now blowing from the south if not SSE than from the W, a little more friendly to TD 5.

[knotimpaired]

Anyway, there's a TD somewhere east of the Lesser Antilles. Us in the islands must monitor carefully this system. That's not the best moment to let our guard down. Any changes in terms of intensity and track could have big implications, so let's wait and see, hoping that nothing too bad occur .

Good morning Gusty,

I am curious about something. In Fort-de-France right now besides the Friendship, you have 5 Cargo vessels in Port. Is this normal or are you starting to get the ships into port because of TD5 for safe harbour?

K

Hi Knotimpaired, that's an excellent question ! But unhopefully i have no answers about that, i'm curious too.

I will keep an eye out for the ships in the area of the watches and see if there is a trend. The Michael J (345') left Roseau enroute for Castries but it seems to maybe be heading to you at this point. He is still about 20 NM away. You also have a 345' Cargo ship at achor, the Kerforms.

I always wondered at what point the larger vessels decided to head in.

[chrisjslucia]

It seems to me, hard to tell a little bit with a such a short loop of vis sat pix, that the LLC has moved a little further south closer to the deeper convection, closer to 12.5N and not at 12.9N as the latest fix by the NHC.

Interesting. The projected path by NHC now shows (8.00am info) TD5 crossing over St Lucia somewhere close to Dennery, 13.9, after showing the point as the south of Martinique last night. If it is further south at present we may see St Vincent as the crossing point. All of us in the region can only expect major rain and and strong winds as a minimum, so preparation is certainly needed. Thankfully the Government of St Lucia has had a programme of drain clearance for the past month that will be a major help. Meanwhile to Gustywinds and all other in the Eastern Caribbean, take care and be safe and as dry as possible! We will send you info as it passes tomorrow, if we keep power and internet services.

[NDG]

What a difference from last night.

[/quote]

[sandyb]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... ml#picture
can someone explain this why is cmc showing east coast

[Dean4Storms]

It does look better this morning and I think it makes a run for TS status today.

[cycloneye]

What a difference from last night.

http://img860.imageshack.us/img860/4970/184cg.jpg

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/188.jpg[/quote]

You can also see how fast it has been moving.

[NDG]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html#picture
can someone explain this why is cmc showing east coast

Because it's the crazy uncle,
It is usually poleward bias many times.
BTW, that was yesterday's 12z run, last night's run shows it entering the FL straights threatening Key West and then tracking towards FL's big bend area.

[AHS2011]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmcloop.html#picture
can someone explain this why is cmc showing east coast

Not start a hype-fest, but if the models start verifying more east, then I think we could experience what we experienced in the early days of Irene during last August.

[AHS2011]

Not to start*

[christchurchguy]

Looks like a rather compact system. When will recon arrive?

[NDG]

What a difference from last night.

http://img860.imageshack.us/img860/4970/184cg.jpg
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/188.jpg

You can also see how fast it has been moving.

Yes indeed. If it keeps it up it could be affecting Barbados as early as the predawn hours of tomorrow morning.

[NDG]

Looks like a rather compact system. When will recon arrive?

At 18z is the scheduled arrival.

[AHS2011]

Looks like a rather compact system. When will recon arrive?

At 18z is the scheduled arrival.

18z translates to 6:00 P.M. EST, correct?

[NDG]

Looks like a rather compact system. When will recon arrive?

At 18z is the scheduled arrival.

18z translates to 6:00 P.M. EST, correct?

2 PM Eastern

[RL3AO]

Looks like a rather compact system. When will recon arrive?

At 18z is the scheduled arrival.

18z translates to 6:00 P.M. EST, correct?

18z = 6 pm UTC or 2pm EDT.

[AHS2011]

oh, okay. thanks

[tolakram]

Here is a handy table to have: http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/zulu-utc.html