#37 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:52 pm
Well, I don't consider the ETA much of a tropical model, and all the "improvments" some have made in this model in the past year have really made it about worthess along the Gulf coast. I notice the ETA also develops the upper low over the Bahamas, perhaps it gets hung up on upper lows and develops a sfc reflection, as it is doing in the BOC?
As for the GFS (some web sites can't let the old MRF name go), the 12Z GFS doesn't seem to show anything but a weak area of convergence across the northern BOC on day 4 moving north toward the northern Gulf coast around day 5 or so. I suppose anything is possible this time of year, but it's probably only a slight chance at this time. Most likely just increased daytime tstms across the northern Gulf coast.
If you mention every single possibility (like JB does every day), then you're usually right when something develops.
Oh, and the ChevronTexaco refinery in Pascagoula is/was a customer of ours. During Georges, I told them 2 days before landfall to prepare for a 12 ft storm surge or a bit more, as we had forecast Georges to hit near Biloxi/Gulfport and NOT New Orleans (as Nash Roberts and Dr. Bill had also forecast correctly). I asked how high their levee was and they said 12 ft. Last we heard from them the night Georges hit, water was entering their control room and they were having to break out windows up high to let the fumes out as they stood on their equipment.
Teddy Mathews, one of the shift supervisors there, told me that he found shrimp in his desk drawer during the clean-up.
My mother, on Sioux Bayou in Gautier got 4+ feet of water in her home about 2 miles north of Hwy. 90.
Last edited by
wxman57 on Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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