ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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JamesCaneTracker
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#1701 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:08 pm

Will we find out why recon is leaving?
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#1702 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:08 pm

Yes they are leaving...85 miles from St Croix when this recco was transmitted.

000
URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1703 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:08 pm

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#1704 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:09 pm

URNT15 KNHC 032300
AF309 0305A ERNESTO HDOB 17 20120803
225130 1554N 06341W 6982 03188 0116 +091 +047 117030 031 032 000 00
225200 1557N 06342W 6977 03196 0113 +096 +047 113032 033 033 000 00
225230 1559N 06343W 6973 03200 0108 +098 +047 112033 033 034 000 03
225300 1601N 06345W 6975 03198 0110 +096 +047 109032 032 034 001 00
225330 1604N 06346W 6975 03196 0108 +097 +047 111032 033 035 000 00
225400 1606N 06347W 6976 03196 0105 +101 +047 105033 034 034 000 00
225430 1609N 06349W 6974 03199 0104 +100 +048 103036 037 034 000 00
225500 1611N 06350W 6975 03199 0107 +100 +048 104036 036 035 000 00
225530 1613N 06351W 6979 03194 0107 +100 +047 105036 036 035 000 00
225600 1616N 06352W 6975 03200 0112 +100 +047 105037 037 034 001 00
225630 1618N 06354W 6977 03198 0112 +099 +047 105037 037 034 000 03
225700 1620N 06355W 6976 03199 0116 +095 +048 108036 037 033 000 00
225730 1623N 06356W 6975 03201 0119 +091 +049 108037 037 033 000 03
225800 1625N 06358W 6974 03200 0118 +094 +050 110036 037 032 002 00
225830 1627N 06359W 6976 03198 0117 +094 +049 113034 034 032 000 00
225900 1630N 06400W 6974 03200 0119 +092 +047 114034 035 032 000 00
225930 1632N 06402W 6979 03195 0119 +094 +045 114033 033 032 000 03
230000 1635N 06403W 6977 03195 0117 +092 +044 112032 033 032 000 00
230030 1637N 06404W 6971 03204 0122 +090 +042 111033 034 030 000 00
230100 1639N 06406W 6980 03194 0121 +090 +040 112034 034 030 001 00
$$
;

Looks like it?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1705 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:10 pm

GCANE wrote:


Rotating as well

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Right over the LLC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031515.jpg

IMHO, this most likely is the onset of RI.

Good analysis GCANE, Hot Towers are associated with RI and recon is going into it at the perfect time (the delay was a blessing in disguise).

Texashawk wrote:Or an open wave. :P

?
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#1706 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:11 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon

#1707 Postby Evil Jeremy » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:11 pm

Image
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#1708 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:12 pm

URNT11 KNHC 032300
97779 23004 60166 64000 30300 11032 09042 /3170
RMK AF309 0305A ERNESTO OB 06
SWS = 30 KTS
LAST REPORT
;

Yep headed home, must be issues.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1709 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:14 pm

Recon is done... They are headed home.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#1710 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:14 pm

At what time the next mission departs?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1711 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:16 pm

Cyclenall wrote: Good analysis GCANE, Hot Towers are associated with RI and recon is going into it at the perfect time (the delay was a blessing in disguise).



Much thanks Cyclenall.

From what I have seen in the past, it'll take about 3 or 4 hours to heat the core up and wind speeds to start to crank from it.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1712 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:16 pm

JamesCaneTracker wrote:Recon is done... They are headed home.

I'm praying this is a joke.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1713 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:17 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
JamesCaneTracker wrote:Recon is done... They are headed home.

I'm praying this is a joke.


No Joke... Look in the recon Discussion thread!
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1714 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:18 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
JamesCaneTracker wrote:Recon is done... They are headed home.

I'm praying this is a joke.


Unfortunately its not a joke, seems like they had an issue
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#1715 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:20 pm

Cycloneye...this was issued today for tomorrow...

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-
A. 04/1200, 1800Z
B. AFXXX 0405A ERNESTO
C. 04/1030Z
D. 14.4N 68.1W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 71-
A. 05/0000Z, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0505A ERNESTO
C. 04/2200Z
D. 15.0N 71.2W
E. 04/2330Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARKS: BECAUSE OF THE STORM'S LOCATION AND FOR MORE
FAVORABLE CREW SEQUENCING, TODAY'S FIX FOR 03/1800Z
HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 03/2200Z AND THE 04/0600Z
REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF EAST COAST OF FLORIDA)
FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 73-
A. 04/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 80.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
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#1716 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:20 pm

The graphics below is the 12zECMWF Ensemble Means&Spread.....as you can see the European Ensembles hint at Ernesto possibly entering the SW GOM by day 6 and 7.

Day 6
Image

Day 7
Image
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Re:

#1717 Postby bg1 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:21 pm

Dave wrote:RECON TUTORIAL:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603


Thanks for the link. I thought those winds were abnormally low in relation to SFMR.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1718 Postby GCANE » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:23 pm

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Re: Re:

#1719 Postby Dave » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:23 pm

bg1 wrote:
Dave wrote:RECON TUTORIAL:

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603


Thanks for the link. I thought those winds were abnormally low in relation to SFMR.


once I got a chance to look at what I'd pasted up there they were too low to make any sense. Has to be equipment problems for the reason they returned early tonight....just guessing though on that.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1720 Postby JupiterScott » Fri Aug 03, 2012 6:24 pm

Could the possible formation of a stronger storm off of FLORIDA cause a more NORTHERN component of the future track of Ernie?
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