ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical
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- Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
floridasun78 wrote:could 91l cause wakness of high if Ernesto get stronger earlier and expect could it turn sooner because of weakness???
If I were asked this question last night, answer would have been somewhere between extremely unlikely and "hell freezing over". However, given the present ( perhaps temporary) combination of circumstances......, umm I'd say its at least reasonable to contemplate. Ernesto may well be going through a pulsating process. He's still fighting shear, though maybe a bit more deepening and continued slight decrease of forward speed, and thus net result would be at least temporarily a bit less shear. Now if this thing continues "bombing" out an increasing CDO and we start seeing some serious bands ( a la E. Carib. Gilbert if memory serves correct ), then we might have to take the EURO and GFS and toss them out with the LBAR because a truly deepening system will certainly smell out any weekness upstream. Whether or not 91L can sit around a bit longer and actually deepen to much significance remains to be seen. Remember too, 91L if it develops will likely be fairly compact and not have to much impact on decaying a strong ridge.
Either way, gotta love August - is kind of the start of the Atlantic Tropical Olympics
Last edited by chaser1 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Andy D
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- LSU2001
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five or six days out I want the models to be putting the storm right over my house. That way I can kinda bet that I won't have to fill up my gas cans
Just joking, it sure looks like things are gonna get interesting around here in Southeast Louisiana next week. My school's students return on Friday so we may just start the year off with a bang.
Tim


Just joking, it sure looks like things are gonna get interesting around here in Southeast Louisiana next week. My school's students return on Friday so we may just start the year off with a bang.
Tim
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- Rgv20
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Not a model but the HPC forecast for Friday Morning.


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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?
On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
Kingarabian wrote:HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?
On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?
Winds on the were 61-65mph but they may have been Rain contaminated. It's appearance has also improved.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?
On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?
Winds on the were 61-65mph but they may have been Rain contaminated. It's appearance has also improved.
At most I would go for right now is 55mph, since it does look a lot better.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?
On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?
Winds on the were 61-65mph but they may have been Rain contaminated. It's appearance has also improved.
What I'm saying is it probably will be changed in intensity at 11.
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- cycloneye
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Re:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Curious for 11pm, wxman57 and cycloneye what's your perspective
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Well,I dont work in NHC so I deffer to them on any decision to bump the winds or not. But my personal opinion is that a 5 to 10 mph bump may be good based on sat images as we dont have recon.
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- mcheer23
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
Next advisory i expect the same strength...and the same track.
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- TwisterFanatic
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I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Curious for 11pm, wxman57 and cycloneye what's your perspective
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Well,I dont work in NHC so I deffer to them on any decision to bump the winds or not. But my personal opinion is that a 5 to 10 mph bump may be good based on sat images as we dont have recon.
Thank you I appreciate your perspective.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re:
TwisterFanatic wrote:I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO
I dont think they can since they go by knots. 45kt is about 50mph and 50kt is about 60...unless theyve changed this rule recently?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm
Looks like there is quite a bit of dry area to the west of Ernesto and south of Hispanola. Not until west of Jamaica does the atosphere moisten up. Could this induce some weakening tomorrow as the dry air is in his path in the short term (next 12-36 hours or so)?


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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: Re:
cheezyWXguy wrote:TwisterFanatic wrote:I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO
I dont think they can since they go by knots. 45kt is about 50mph and 50kt is about 60...unless theyve changed this rule recently?
Doh! Brain fart, I had one.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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