ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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#1781 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:07 pm

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1782 Postby chaser1 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:08 pm

floridasun78 wrote:could 91l cause wakness of high if Ernesto get stronger earlier and expect could it turn sooner because of weakness???


If I were asked this question last night, answer would have been somewhere between extremely unlikely and "hell freezing over". However, given the present ( perhaps temporary) combination of circumstances......, umm I'd say its at least reasonable to contemplate. Ernesto may well be going through a pulsating process. He's still fighting shear, though maybe a bit more deepening and continued slight decrease of forward speed, and thus net result would be at least temporarily a bit less shear. Now if this thing continues "bombing" out an increasing CDO and we start seeing some serious bands ( a la E. Carib. Gilbert if memory serves correct ), then we might have to take the EURO and GFS and toss them out with the LBAR because a truly deepening system will certainly smell out any weekness upstream. Whether or not 91L can sit around a bit longer and actually deepen to much significance remains to be seen. Remember too, 91L if it develops will likely be fairly compact and not have to much impact on decaying a strong ridge.

Either way, gotta love August - is kind of the start of the Atlantic Tropical Olympics
Last edited by chaser1 on Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1783 Postby LSU2001 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:09 pm

five or six days out I want the models to be putting the storm right over my house. That way I can kinda bet that I won't have to fill up my gas cans 8-) :D
Just joking, it sure looks like things are gonna get interesting around here in Southeast Louisiana next week. My school's students return on Friday so we may just start the year off with a bang.
Tim
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#1784 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:11 pm

Curious for 11pm, wxman57 and cycloneye what's your perspective
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#1785 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:12 pm

Not a model but the HPC forecast for Friday Morning.

Image
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1786 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:19 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?

On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1787 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?

On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?

Winds on the were 61-65mph but they may have been Rain contaminated. It's appearance has also improved.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1788 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:23 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?

On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?

Winds on the were 61-65mph but they may have been Rain contaminated. It's appearance has also improved.

At most I would go for right now is 55mph, since it does look a lot better.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1789 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:23 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Nhc should make the winds 60mph but will the recon prevent this?

On what basis should they make this storm 60mph?

Winds on the were 61-65mph but they may have been Rain contaminated. It's appearance has also improved.

What I'm saying is it probably will be changed in intensity at 11.
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Re:

#1790 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:24 pm

HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Curious for 11pm, wxman57 and cycloneye what's your perspective


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Well,I dont work in NHC so I deffer to them on any decision to bump the winds or not. But my personal opinion is that a 5 to 10 mph bump may be good based on sat images as we dont have recon.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1791 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:24 pm

Next advisory i expect the same strength...and the same track.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1792 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:25 pm

I'll take your word.
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#1793 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:25 pm

I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO
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Re: Re:

#1794 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Curious for 11pm, wxman57 and cycloneye what's your perspective


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Well,I dont work in NHC so I deffer to them on any decision to bump the winds or not. But my personal opinion is that a 5 to 10 mph bump may be good based on sat images as we dont have recon.

Thank you I appreciate your perspective.
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Re:

#1795 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:28 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO



I dont think ive ever seen a NHC advisory with 55 mph winds. I think they go straight to 60
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#1796 Postby Vandymit » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:28 pm

So, if I am reading the majority of the comments on this thread correctly, a stronger storm means a more northerly track...If so, why does the GFDL show a realitively weaK storm? Why should I put any stock to stronger means north???
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Re:

#1797 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:28 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO

I dont think they can since they go by knots. 45kt is about 50mph and 50kt is about 60...unless theyve changed this rule recently?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1798 Postby HurricaneAndrew92 » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:31 pm

So what happens if we have winds of 55mph?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1799 Postby jinftl » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:32 pm

Looks like there is quite a bit of dry area to the west of Ernesto and south of Hispanola. Not until west of Jamaica does the atosphere moisten up. Could this induce some weakening tomorrow as the dry air is in his path in the short term (next 12-36 hours or so)?

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Re: Re:

#1800 Postby TwisterFanatic » Fri Aug 03, 2012 8:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
TwisterFanatic wrote:I would split the difference and go with 55. JMO

I dont think they can since they go by knots. 45kt is about 50mph and 50kt is about 60...unless theyve changed this rule recently?


Doh! Brain fart, I had one.
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