ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1941 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:34 am

ozonepete wrote:
chaser1 wrote:alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.


Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.


CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.


Why do the SAL maps not extend into the GoM anymore? I can't seem to find them.
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Re:

#1942 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:34 am

mcheer23 wrote:Uhh...Can someone tell me if this HWRF 00z run is messed up..? shows it stalling out near Nicaragua...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html



Yeah that definitely looks messed up. It's skipping around. Just looks weird to me.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1943 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:35 am

SoupBone wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
chaser1 wrote:alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.


Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.


CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.


Why do the SAL maps not extend into the GoM anymore? I can't seem to find them.

Politics... I mean sorry the satellite lost a channel.
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Re: Re:

#1944 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:36 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:Uhh...Can someone tell me if this HWRF 00z run is messed up..? shows it stalling out near Nicaragua...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html



Yeah that definitely looks messed up. It's skipping around. Just looks weird to me.



Same thing I was thinking, but if the UKMET and HWRF shift this far south.... :double:
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#1945 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:38 am

HWRF will be out soon....the EURO starts in 20 minutes
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#1946 Postby Texashawk » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:43 am

Y'know, lost in all the model madness is the fact that Ernesto is developing rather a large circulation for a TS. Just sayin'.

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1947 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:43 am

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to have to disagree with the latest NHC discussion, the strength is not 45 knots and it looks like it has slowed more than 2 knots. The reasoning given did not make sense either, recon was in there hours ago and didn't even get a chance to sample much. Since recon left for some unknown reason, it has gotten much better organized. Not only that, but only showing 65 knots at 72 hours seems very risky in terms of being too slow. It wouldn't surprise me if it was only 10 knots away from that value presently. I won't get into the weakening at 120 hours as that has to do with land interaction. I agree with the track forecast however, maybe a bit more north.

NHC Discussion wrote:SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Risky.

wxman57 wrote:00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

Hilarious, when all indications are pointing to the opposite. The NHC forecast also gave that guidance a giant middle finger.

Joe Bastardi wrote:@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

So how is that cold summer coming along Joe?

ozonepete wrote:Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

Yeah its going to take a lot of work to undo everyone's habit at using the upper layer WV for how moist the environment is for a TC because that image is readily available and most people didn't know about mid-level WV similar to mid-level wind shear. Up until now its been many years of that other map being used all the time for dry air spotting. Heck, I just found that out not too long ago as well. I do have one question, does the upper level WV have any affect on forming TC's or established TC's?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1948 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:46 am

I wouldnt discount WXMN57's take on the models.....they are all trending into BOC or MX now....
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1949 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:46 am

SoupBone wrote:Why do the SAL maps not extend into the GoM anymore? I can't seem to find them.


Well Kingarabian says it's politics, but really I don't know why and it is frustrating. I'll see if I can find out why. The three most valuable things to know about the environment around a tropical cyclone are shear, SSTs and mid-level dry air, so you would think we'd have better and more easily available charts for the mid-level dry air. If anyone else knows, please share it.
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#1950 Postby Vandymit » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:50 am

GFDL big left swing. Maybe the GFS is correct?...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1951 Postby Texashawk » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:50 am

ROCK wrote:I wouldnt discount WXMN57's take on the models.....they are all trending into BOC or MX now....


Yes, the models which depict a storm who wasn't there...
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1952 Postby BigB0882 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:50 am

ROCK wrote:I wouldnt discount WXMN57's take on the models.....they are all trending into BOC or MX now....


I never discount what he says, he is really good BUT the models on the other hand, I am discounting almost all of them for tonight. There are some really garbage looking runs. Even if they turn out right I feel like it will be pure luck because some of them are just as wacky as I have seen in a while. The GFS doesn't make one bit of sense to me, for example. I am kind of tossing out tonights runs and going to hope tomorrow night we get some good Recon data and better model initializations. If they all still say BOC then good for them but I have a feeling that models will swing wildly within 24 hours. NOT A FORECAST, I AM NOT A PRO MET OR ANYTHING RESEMBLING ONE.
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Re:

#1953 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:51 am

Vandymit wrote:GFDL big left swing. Maybe the GFS is correct?...


What..? The GFDL shifted south but still has it through the Yucatan Channel generally headed toward Louisiana
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Models

#1954 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:54 am

EURO initialized at a 1008mb TS....oh brother
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1955 Postby ozonepete » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:54 am

Cyclenall wrote: Yeah its going to take a lot of work to undo everyone's habit at using the upper layer WV for how moist the environment is for a TC because that image is readily available and most people didn't know about mid-level WV similar to mid-level wind shear. Up until now its been many years of that other map being used all the time for dry air spotting. Heck, I just found that out not too long ago as well. I do have one question, does the upper level WV have any affect on forming TC's or established TC's?


As far as I was taught, no. At the highest levels over the circulation of a standard tropical cyclone you of course expect to see an anticyclone which is venting the air forced upward by the thunderstorms in the core. But since the air parcels at the highest levels over a TC do not have any downward effect on the TC circulation, it doesn't matter whether that air has high or low RH.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1956 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:56 am

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..
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Re: Re:

#1957 Postby Vandymit » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:58 am

mcheer23 wrote:
Vandymit wrote:GFDL big left swing. Maybe the GFS is correct?...


What..? The GFDL shifted south but still has it through the Yucatan Channel generally headed toward Louisiana



Earlier today it was the FL Panhandle. Now LA/TX....give it time my friend.

BTW, i am a USA grad myself! Go Jags.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1958 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:59 am

mcheer23 wrote:I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1959 Postby mcheer23 » Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:00 am

Florida1118 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.



So basically all these models with the south shift lately are out to lunch?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Tropical Storm

#1960 Postby Texashawk » Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:01 am

mcheer23 wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:
mcheer23 wrote:I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.



So basically all these models with the south shift lately are out to lunch?


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