ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[SoupBone]

alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.

Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

Why do the SAL maps not extend into the GoM anymore? I can't seem to find them.

[South Texas Storms]

Uhh...Can someone tell me if this HWRF 00z run is messed up..? shows it stalling out near Nicaragua...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

Yeah that definitely looks messed up. It's skipping around. Just looks weird to me.

[Kingarabian]

alright, i'll go out on a limb here. I won't weigh this moment regarding where Ernesto will wind up, but will put this out there - regardless of what happens to this storm, if it weakens or does not further develop, I don't believe "dry air" will have had anything to do with it. Furthermore, I dont see dry air being a big factor affecting the development of any of the present systems out there.

Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

GOES WATER VAPOR - ONLY SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT THE HIGHEST LAYER IT SEES IT.
NOT GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

CIMSS MID_LEVEL WATER VAPOR - SHOWS DRY AIR (LOW RH) AT MID_LEVELS.
VERY GOOD FOR ANALYSIS OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH AFFECTS TROPICAL CYCLONES ADVERSELY.

Why do the SAL maps not extend into the GoM anymore? I can't seem to find them.

Politics... I mean sorry the satellite lost a channel.

[mcheer23]

Uhh...Can someone tell me if this HWRF 00z run is messed up..? shows it stalling out near Nicaragua...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

Yeah that definitely looks messed up. It's skipping around. Just looks weird to me.

Same thing I was thinking, but if the UKMET and HWRF shift this far south....

[ROCK]

HWRF will be out soon....the EURO starts in 20 minutes

[Texashawk]

Y'know, lost in all the model madness is the fact that Ernesto is developing rather a large circulation for a TS. Just sayin'.



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[Cyclenall]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm going to have to disagree with the latest NHC discussion, the strength is not 45 knots and it looks like it has slowed more than 2 knots. The reasoning given did not make sense either, recon was in there hours ago and didn't even get a chance to sample much. Since recon left for some unknown reason, it has gotten much better organized. Not only that, but only showing 65 knots at 72 hours seems very risky in terms of being too slow. It wouldn't surprise me if it was only 10 knots away from that value presently. I won't get into the weakening at 120 hours as that has to do with land interaction. I agree with the track forecast however, maybe a bit more north.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Risky.

00Z model guidance shifted well to the west, no more turn northward to the NE Gulf, except for the wacky GFDL. All other tracks point at upper TX coast or south to MX.

Hilarious, when all indications are pointing to the opposite. The NHC forecast also gave that guidance a giant middle finger.

@BigJoeBastardi
Convective blow up over Ernesto may be dry entrainment bursting, we will know tomorrow I have seen this many times, may not be what u think

So how is that cold summer coming along Joe?

Thank you! Dry air is not involved at this point. And you can know this if you use the correct data to analyze dry air at MID-LEVELS. Dry air in the upper layers has no bearing on Tropical Cyclone development or sustenance. Only dry air at MID-LEVELS matters. I have tried so hard to get this point across here but always wind up having to say it over and over again. Let me try one more time.

Yeah its going to take a lot of work to undo everyone's habit at using the upper layer WV for how moist the environment is for a TC because that image is readily available and most people didn't know about mid-level WV similar to mid-level wind shear. Up until now its been many years of that other map being used all the time for dry air spotting. Heck, I just found that out not too long ago as well. I do have one question, does the upper level WV have any affect on forming TC's or established TC's?

[ROCK]

I wouldnt discount WXMN57's take on the models.....they are all trending into BOC or MX now....

[ozonepete]

Why do the SAL maps not extend into the GoM anymore? I can't seem to find them.

Well Kingarabian says it's politics, but really I don't know why and it is frustrating. I'll see if I can find out why. The three most valuable things to know about the environment around a tropical cyclone are shear, SSTs and mid-level dry air, so you would think we'd have better and more easily available charts for the mid-level dry air. If anyone else knows, please share it.

[Vandymit]

GFDL big left swing. Maybe the GFS is correct?...

[Texashawk]

I wouldnt discount WXMN57's take on the models.....they are all trending into BOC or MX now....

Yes, the models which depict a storm who wasn't there...

[BigB0882]

I wouldnt discount WXMN57's take on the models.....they are all trending into BOC or MX now....

I never discount what he says, he is really good BUT the models on the other hand, I am discounting almost all of them for tonight. There are some really garbage looking runs. Even if they turn out right I feel like it will be pure luck because some of them are just as wacky as I have seen in a while. The GFS doesn't make one bit of sense to me, for example. I am kind of tossing out tonights runs and going to hope tomorrow night we get some good Recon data and better model initializations. If they all still say BOC then good for them but I have a feeling that models will swing wildly within 24 hours. NOT A FORECAST, I AM NOT A PRO MET OR ANYTHING RESEMBLING ONE.

[mcheer23]

GFDL big left swing. Maybe the GFS is correct?...

What..? The GFDL shifted south but still has it through the Yucatan Channel generally headed toward Louisiana

[ROCK]

EURO initialized at a 1008mb TS....oh brother

[ozonepete]

Yeah its going to take a lot of work to undo everyone's habit at using the upper layer WV for how moist the environment is for a TC because that image is readily available and most people didn't know about mid-level WV similar to mid-level wind shear. Up until now its been many years of that other map being used all the time for dry air spotting. Heck, I just found that out not too long ago as well. I do have one question, does the upper level WV have any affect on forming TC's or established TC's?

As far as I was taught, no. At the highest levels over the circulation of a standard tropical cyclone you of course expect to see an anticyclone which is venting the air forced upward by the thunderstorms in the core. But since the air parcels at the highest levels over a TC do not have any downward effect on the TC circulation, it doesn't matter whether that air has high or low RH.

[mcheer23]

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

[Vandymit]

GFDL big left swing. Maybe the GFS is correct?...

What..? The GFDL shifted south but still has it through the Yucatan Channel generally headed toward Louisiana

Earlier today it was the FL Panhandle. Now LA/TX....give it time my friend.

BTW, i am a USA grad myself! Go Jags.

[Florida1118]

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.

[mcheer23]

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.

So basically all these models with the south shift lately are out to lunch?

[Texashawk]

I'm really confused right now, I thought if this storm was stronger it would turn more north like the NHC track..now these models are shifting south and confusing me..

They aren't starting with a Tropical Storm; some of them are starting with a wave or general area of low pressure, like the GFS. They don't have the storm at the correct strength, so it doesn't feel the weakness in the model, and goes south. They need to start out with a strong TS and not a weak system to show a plausible outcome.

So basically all these models with the south shift lately are out to lunch?

With fries dipped in McCrazy sauce and a drink.