55 knots and expected to strengthen into a typhoonWTPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.6N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE JAPANESE
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTENSIFYING INTO A TYPHOON
UNDER WEAK VWS AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT
70 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS HAIKUI WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 96. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, NOGAPS, AND WBAR THAT ARE ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX ABRUPTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ABOVE ERROR.
DESPITE THE STATED MODEL ERROR ABOVE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN
haikui is dumping alottttttttttttt of rain over okinawa....
then it's remnants is going to affect an additional 78,659,903 in Jiangsu...add in shanghai-17,836,133 (largest city proper by population in the world) Population (2010) Municipal total population of over 23 million... as of 2010......
check back here for the latest information... 
