WPAC: HAIKUI - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
The JMA has upgraded Haikui to a severe tropical storm.
STS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 5 August 2012
<Analyses at 05/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25'(27.4°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Estimate for 05/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25'(27.4°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40'(27.7°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°50'(27.8°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20'(28.3°)
E121°35'(121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°10'(29.2°)
E119°35'(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
STS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 5 August 2012
<Analyses at 05/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25'(27.4°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Estimate for 05/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°25'(27.4°)
E127°00'(127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40'(27.7°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)
<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°50'(27.8°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 07/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°20'(28.3°)
E121°35'(121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°10'(29.2°)
E119°35'(119.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
55 knots and expected to strengthen into a typhoon
WTPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.6N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE JAPANESE
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTENSIFYING INTO A TYPHOON
UNDER WEAK VWS AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT
70 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS HAIKUI WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 96. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, NOGAPS, AND WBAR THAT ARE ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX ABRUPTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ABOVE ERROR.
DESPITE THE STATED MODEL ERROR ABOVE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN
WTPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 127.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 127.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 27.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 27.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 28.0N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.6N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.9N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 27.5N 126.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W
(THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN
WDPN33 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON A RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM THE JAPANESE
METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS TRACKING ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AS
EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 12W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, INTENSIFYING INTO A TYPHOON
UNDER WEAK VWS AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, PEAKING AT
70 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS HAIKUI WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND DUE TO
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 96. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, NOGAPS, AND WBAR THAT ARE ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX ABRUPTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.
THIS FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE ABOVE ERROR.
DESPITE THE STATED MODEL ERROR ABOVE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
TPPN12 PGTW 051455
A. TROPICAL STORM 12W (HAIKUI)
B. 05/1432Z
C. 27.3N
D. 127.0E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 13A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BNDG/ANMTN. DG SURR OW EYE
(DISORGANIZED) YIELDS A 4.0 DT. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
05/0915Z 27.5N 127.6E WIND
05/1140Z 27.4N 127.2E SSMS
05/1304Z 27.4N 127.0E MMHS
interesting that dvorak are now 4.0- Typhoon strength....will JTWC upgrade? haikui looks to be strengthening as outflow is expanding in all quadrants...bad news for china...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
haikui is dumping alottttttttttttt of rain over okinawa....
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
euro forecast- landfall over shanghai.......
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:08 pm
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
JMA: 55 knots
STS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 5 August 2012
<Analyses at 05/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°05'(27.1°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Estimate for 05/19 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°05'(27.1°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°20'(27.3°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10'(28.2°)
E121°35'(121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°30'(29.5°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
STS 1211 (HAIKUI)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 5 August 2012
<Analyses at 05/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°05'(27.1°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Estimate for 05/19 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N27°05'(27.1°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N480km(260NM)
S390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 06/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°10'(27.2°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL170km(90NM)
<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°20'(27.3°)
E124°00'(124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 07/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N28°10'(28.2°)
E121°35'(121.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL350km(190NM)
<Forecast for 08/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°30'(29.5°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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-
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
Some info, Okinawa recorded the top 10 highest rain totals in Japan the past 72hrs, no surprise there, the #1 spot had 406mm of rain. Meanwhile 9/10 the top 10 of wind gust go to Okinawa but oddly enough in N. Honshu a wind gust from a Thunder Storm hit 130kph. Wew! Windy stuff.
Heres my latest video.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/08/06/7334/
Heres my latest video.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/08/06/7334/
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
strengthening Typhoon Haikui bearing down on china and expected to make landfall south of shanghai although haikui is expected to recurve and reach shanghai...
WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.3N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.4N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.5N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 124.5E.
TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 016
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 27.3N 124.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.3N 124.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 27.4N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 27.9N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.5N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.0N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 30.0N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 30.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 124.5E.
TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
WDPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 061128Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 12W HAS A
POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR
EXCELLENT EXHAUST AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 061200Z 500 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT TY 12W
IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH. THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY WEAKENED THE
STEERING STR HAS SINCE PASSED TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR THE STR
TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR MAKING LANDFALL WELL SOUTH
OF SHANGHAI AS A SIGNIFICANT TYPHOON JUST BEFORE TAU 36. IMPROVING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
36 HOURS ALONG WITH 27-29 DEGREE CELSIUS ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AFTER TAU 36 LAND INTERACTION AND FRICTIONAL DRAG
WILL DETERIORATE THE LLCC AS IT DISSIPATES OVERLAND. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST BASED ON THE TIGHT
MODEL ENVELOPE AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS.
C. TY 12W WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OVERLAND BY TAU 96. A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH TS 12W MAY GET ABSORBED INTO A DEEP
LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND EMERGE OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CHINA AS A MID-
LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TO THE POINT OF LANDFALL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE RIGHT
MOST OUTLIER, ECMWF. THE MODEL SPREAD VARIES IN THE TRACKERS WHEN
TY 12W IS OVERLAND BUT THE DEEP TROUGH MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PICK THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATED SYSTEM UP BY THIS
TIME. THERE IS LOW TRACK CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO COMPLEX LAND INTERACTION AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
haikui is bearing down on zhejiang province with a Population of 54,426,891 (2010)- an area smaller than florida then it's remnants is going to affect an additional 78,659,903 in Jiangsu...add in shanghai-17,836,133 (largest city proper by population in the world) Population (2010) Municipal total population of over 23 million... as of 2010......
that's over 150 million people or about half the U.S population...that will get affected by haikui...amazing...these chinese population still baffles me...
that's over 150 million people or about half the U.S population...that will get affected by haikui...amazing...these chinese population still baffles me...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 11:08 pm
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
7/00:40- heavy downpoor here in Wenling,Zhejiang( lat 28.37/long 121.38), wind approx 30km/h,temp 78F
sounds ominous and looks very dark.
Expect this to come right through my front door by morning(hope not). People don't seem to take typhoons very serious ( "oh, this happens every year; just a lot of rain and wind. Its no big deal")
Their sentiments didn't calm my nerves !
I'll post after 0600/07
Roger
sounds ominous and looks very dark.
Expect this to come right through my front door by morning(hope not). People don't seem to take typhoons very serious ( "oh, this happens every year; just a lot of rain and wind. Its no big deal")
Their sentiments didn't calm my nerves !
I'll post after 0600/07
Roger
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Re:
rogerwallace wrote:Wenling,Zhejiang is at: lat28.37-Long 121.38
It seems to be in the direct path of prob. What Cat is it supposed to be at when it makes landfall here?
I live on 5th floor so not too worried...
rogerwallace
category 1 but haikui is 24 hours from landfall so it could go either way, stronger or weaker......living on the 5th floor is even worser...winds at that level tend to be stronger than winds at the surface so you might experience winds of at least a category 2 or even 3...be prepared...
btw welcome to storm2k check back here for the latest information...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
euro6208 wrote:haikui is bearing down on zhejiang province with a Population of 54,426,891 (2010)- an area smaller than florida then it's remnants is going to affect an additional 78,659,903 in Jiangsu...add in shanghai-17,836,133 (largest city proper by population in the world) Population (2010) Municipal total population of over 23 million... as of 2010......
that's over 150 million people or about half the U.S population...that will get affected by haikui...amazing...these chinese population still baffles me...
The JMA still estimates that Haikui will hit Shanghai as a tropical storm.
Only the Yangtze River Delta will be affected... 105 million people.
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Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
Typhoon Haikui closer to landfall...
WTPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 27.4N 123.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 123.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.0N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.5N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 123.6E.
TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 27.4N 123.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.4N 123.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 28.0N 122.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 28.8N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.5N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 30.2N 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 31.1N 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 27.6N 123.6E.
TYPHOON 12W (HAIKUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAIKUI - Severe Tropical Storm
only 65 knots? haikui looks way stronger than that..estimates already at 4.5 with a very organized typhoon with a large eye continuing to get organized as it nears the very populated region of china...
TXPQ27 KNES 062129
TCSWNP
A. 12W (HAIKUI)
B. 06/2032Z
C. 27.4N
D. 123.8E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...12W HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HRS. OW EYE
EMBEDDED IN DG AND SURROUNDED BY MG YIELDS A DT OF 4.5. MET = 4.0. PT =
4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Sure is, not to mention its enhancement of the south west monsoon in the Philippines.
Here is a look at that information coming out of there.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... 2w-haikui/
Meanwhile though I expect Haikui to make landfall sometime tomorrow morning. ( 00 UTC )
Here is a look at that information coming out of there.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... 2w-haikui/
Meanwhile though I expect Haikui to make landfall sometime tomorrow morning. ( 00 UTC )
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