ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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#4461 Postby Dave » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Why would they go to the runway for nothing. I think its the latter Dave, with the HDOB's not being updated.


From the advisory @ 4 pm they were to go but from land & satellite data the NHC may have concluded it would have taken them too long to get down there to do any good and cancelled the flight. The hdobs will stay at #2 until the next mission.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4462 Postby WxEnthus » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:31 pm

Wow, Ernesto has really stepped it up today. The satellite imagery is impressive in terms of size and shape -- he's HUGE and has that nearly perfect pinwheel appearance. I think this would become a very dangerous storm if it weren't about to interact with land. The NHC is expecting significant weakening as he moves over the peninsula... but it's not really that much time on land and it's relatively flat. There's not too much ocean left before landfall but if he bombs to a Cat 2 or 3 in the next few hours I wonder how the much the Yucatan will affect him? is there a possibility he could hold together?

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#4463 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:33 pm

What about letting the public know about anything if is flying or not by issuing a Tropical Cyclone Update?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4464 Postby ozonepete » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:35 pm

WxEnthus wrote:Wow, Ernesto has really stepped it up today. The satellite imagery is impressive in terms of size and shape -- he's HUGE and has that nearly perfect pinwheel appearance. I think this would become a very dangerous storm if it weren't about to interact with land. The NHC is expecting significant weakening as he moves over the peninsula... but it's not really that much time on land and it's relatively flat. There's not too much ocean left before landfall but if he bombs to a Cat 2 or 3 in the next few hours I wonder how the much the Yucatan will affect him? is there a possibility he could hold together?

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3497/16689785.jpg


I could see a low cat 2 but can't see any way it would make a 3. Still impressive intensification is going on.

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#4465 Postby Dave » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:What about letting the public know about anything if is flying or not by issuing a Tropical Cyclone Update?


That'll be in the next advisory if they did fly or not....or should be.
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#4466 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:38 pm

Is it possible for Ernesto to pull a Hurricane Karl (2010)? I remember Karl blew up and RI'ed after going across this similar portion of the Yucatan, as he was moving across the BOC. If I remember correctly, he looked better as he emerged into the water than he did as he was making landfall.
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#4467 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:38 pm

Unless they had some malfunctions, someone's gonna be in trouble for sending a plane to the runway and then cancelling it. Gotta do the math first and make sure you have enough time to get to a storm before declaring a mission. I'm sure it costs quiet a bit of money to assemble a crew, fuel the plane, notify the towers, and then send a plane to the runway for take off.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4468 Postby Florida1118 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:38 pm

ozonepete wrote:
WxEnthus wrote:Wow, Ernesto has really stepped it up today. The satellite imagery is impressive in terms of size and shape -- he's HUGE and has that nearly perfect pinwheel appearance. I think this would become a very dangerous storm if it weren't about to interact with land. The NHC is expecting significant weakening as he moves over the peninsula... but it's not really that much time on land and it's relatively flat. There's not too much ocean left before landfall but if he bombs to a Cat 2 or 3 in the next few hours I wonder how the much the Yucatan will affect him? is there a possibility he could hold together?

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3497/16689785.jpg


I could see a low cat 2 but can't see any way it would make a 3. Still impressive intensification is going on.

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Even then, the chances of a Cat.2 are small per the NHC.
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#4469 Postby Dave » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:40 pm

From COZUMEL, QUINTANA ROO; MÉXICO

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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4470 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:43 pm

latest loop

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#4471 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:44 pm

Best looking Cat.1 hurricane I've seen in my life!
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#4472 Postby WxEnthus » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:44 pm

It's definitely understandable if it has been canceled, however... wish they'd bumped the flight up an hour or two. I gotta say, if I was someone excitedly looking forward to pouring over the RI data that could have been gathered from this mission I'd probably be throwing things right now.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4473 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:48 pm

I like the new RBTOP view.

Rainbow Top
RBTOP
Shows the same as rainbow imagery, except very cold and hot temperatures are emphasized in gray and black colors.

Image
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#4474 Postby Dave » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:49 pm

This is a guess only so take it as that. By the time the previous plane landed back at Keesler from the mission this morning there was barely enough time to get it prepped & refueled and ready for another quick mission back to Ernesto without much to spare. like a last minute thought, lets try to get a last recon plane in there before the storm hits lands but they ran out of time. Again....a guess.

As for having other planes prepped and ready for take off this system wasn't threatening the US coast so there none ready to go.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4475 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:49 pm

Definitely a west component to Ernesto's movement as of late. First landfall looks to be north of Chetumal but not as far north as Felipe Puerto. Maybe Costa Maya, Mexico. Look out!
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#4476 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:50 pm

It has occured many times in past seasons that they had a AF plane and a NOAA one at the same time.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Recon Discussions - Comments - Questions

#4477 Postby Dave » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:51 pm

cycloneye wrote:It has occured many times in past seasons that they had a AF plane and a NOAA one at the same time.


:uarrow: That's what I'm wondering...why no NOAA plane on standby or even in the air?
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4478 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:53 pm

I am wondering how much the northern tip of the peninsula will actually lead to Ernesto weakening at this point? As has already been pointed out, that area is relatively low in height (500ft), and the storm is so big. Won't the majority of the storm still be over water most of the time and be able to pull energy in that way? If it doesn't strengthen, won't it at least have a solid chance of maintaining strength?
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#4479 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:53 pm

They have more than one or two planes, though. They had the afternoon flight, in which case the flight for this evening would have already been long back from it's mission really early this morning. Granted, the logistics in trying to go an hour earlier than planned is probably a lot harder than going an hour or two later.
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Re: ATL: ERNESTO - Hurricane

#4480 Postby WxEnthus » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:56 pm

Florida1118 wrote:Even then, the chances of a Cat.2 are small per the NHC.


Yes the odds are quite tiny according to that chart and really there is precious little open ocean left to cover but it's interesting to see how quickly he's gotten his act together today. Can't remember which storm it was that actually intensified for several hours over land and re-emerged stronger, I think it was over Cuba or Hispanola. Anyone remember?
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