ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Why would they go to the runway for nothing. I think its the latter Dave, with the HDOB's not being updated.

From the advisory @ 4 pm they were to go but from land & satellite data the NHC may have concluded it would have taken them too long to get down there to do any good and cancelled the flight. The hdobs will stay at #2 until the next mission.

[WxEnthus]

Wow, Ernesto has really stepped it up today. The satellite imagery is impressive in terms of size and shape -- he's HUGE and has that nearly perfect pinwheel appearance. I think this would become a very dangerous storm if it weren't about to interact with land. The NHC is expecting significant weakening as he moves over the peninsula... but it's not really that much time on land and it's relatively flat. There's not too much ocean left before landfall but if he bombs to a Cat 2 or 3 in the next few hours I wonder how the much the Yucatan will affect him? is there a possibility he could hold together?

[cycloneye]

What about letting the public know about anything if is flying or not by issuing a Tropical Cyclone Update?

[ozonepete]

Wow, Ernesto has really stepped it up today. The satellite imagery is impressive in terms of size and shape -- he's HUGE and has that nearly perfect pinwheel appearance. I think this would become a very dangerous storm if it weren't about to interact with land. The NHC is expecting significant weakening as he moves over the peninsula... but it's not really that much time on land and it's relatively flat. There's not too much ocean left before landfall but if he bombs to a Cat 2 or 3 in the next few hours I wonder how the much the Yucatan will affect him? is there a possibility he could hold together?

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3497/16689785.jpg

I could see a low cat 2 but can't see any way it would make a 3. Still impressive intensification is going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dave]

What about letting the public know about anything if is flying or not by issuing a Tropical Cyclone Update?

That'll be in the next advisory if they did fly or not....or should be.

[brunota2003]

Is it possible for Ernesto to pull a Hurricane Karl (2010)? I remember Karl blew up and RI'ed after going across this similar portion of the Yucatan, as he was moving across the BOC. If I remember correctly, he looked better as he emerged into the water than he did as he was making landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Unless they had some malfunctions, someone's gonna be in trouble for sending a plane to the runway and then cancelling it. Gotta do the math first and make sure you have enough time to get to a storm before declaring a mission. I'm sure it costs quiet a bit of money to assemble a crew, fuel the plane, notify the towers, and then send a plane to the runway for take off.

[Florida1118]

Wow, Ernesto has really stepped it up today. The satellite imagery is impressive in terms of size and shape -- he's HUGE and has that nearly perfect pinwheel appearance. I think this would become a very dangerous storm if it weren't about to interact with land. The NHC is expecting significant weakening as he moves over the peninsula... but it's not really that much time on land and it's relatively flat. There's not too much ocean left before landfall but if he bombs to a Cat 2 or 3 in the next few hours I wonder how the much the Yucatan will affect him? is there a possibility he could hold together?

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3497/16689785.jpg

I could see a low cat 2 but can't see any way it would make a 3. Still impressive intensification is going on.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even then, the chances of a Cat.2 are small per the NHC.

[Dave]

From COZUMEL, QUINTANA ROO; MÉXICO

[tolakram]

latest loop

[Kingarabian]

Best looking Cat.1 hurricane I've seen in my life!

[WxEnthus]

It's definitely understandable if it has been canceled, however... wish they'd bumped the flight up an hour or two. I gotta say, if I was someone excitedly looking forward to pouring over the RI data that could have been gathered from this mission I'd probably be throwing things right now.

[tolakram]

I like the new RBTOP view.

Rainbow Top
RBTOP
Shows the same as rainbow imagery, except very cold and hot temperatures are emphasized in gray and black colors.

[Dave]

This is a guess only so take it as that. By the time the previous plane landed back at Keesler from the mission this morning there was barely enough time to get it prepped & refueled and ready for another quick mission back to Ernesto without much to spare. like a last minute thought, lets try to get a last recon plane in there before the storm hits lands but they ran out of time. Again....a guess.

As for having other planes prepped and ready for take off this system wasn't threatening the US coast so there none ready to go.

[Portastorm]

Definitely a west component to Ernesto's movement as of late. First landfall looks to be north of Chetumal but not as far north as Felipe Puerto. Maybe Costa Maya, Mexico. Look out!

[cycloneye]

It has occured many times in past seasons that they had a AF plane and a NOAA one at the same time.

[Dave]

It has occured many times in past seasons that they had a AF plane and a NOAA one at the same time.

That's what I'm wondering...why no NOAA plane on standby or even in the air?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I am wondering how much the northern tip of the peninsula will actually lead to Ernesto weakening at this point? As has already been pointed out, that area is relatively low in height (500ft), and the storm is so big. Won't the majority of the storm still be over water most of the time and be able to pull energy in that way? If it doesn't strengthen, won't it at least have a solid chance of maintaining strength?

[brunota2003]

They have more than one or two planes, though. They had the afternoon flight, in which case the flight for this evening would have already been long back from it's mission really early this morning. Granted, the logistics in trying to go an hour earlier than planned is probably a lot harder than going an hour or two later.

[WxEnthus]

Even then, the chances of a Cat.2 are small per the NHC.

Yes the odds are quite tiny according to that chart and really there is precious little open ocean left to cover but it's interesting to see how quickly he's gotten his act together today. Can't remember which storm it was that actually intensified for several hours over land and re-emerged stronger, I think it was over Cuba or Hispanola. Anyone remember?