ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

This article is from the daily newspaper of Martinica called " FranceAntilles".
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 169589.php


ALERT

Yellow vigilance: heavy rains expected

France-Antilles Martinique 11.08.2012

The phenomenon, which yesterday was 1000 miles east of Martinique should strengthen into a tropical storm on Saturday afternoon.

The seventh tropical depression of the season and, again, Martinique is found in yellow cyclone alert.


Yesterday evening, at 18 hours, despite some uncertainties on the intensity and the trajectory of the disturbance, weather-France indicated that, without being "a phenomenon of high intensity, precipitation may be locally significant.

According to the forecasts, the phenomenon, which lies 1,000 kilometres east of Martinique should strengthen into a tropical storm on Saturday afternoon. The weather should continue until midday and storm arrive on Martinique in the night of Saturday to Sunday.

The first stormy rains will address the Island early in the night and will continue during the day of Sunday. Major rollups of the order of 100 mm in 24 hours are considered. The wind which should begin to strengthen Saturday afternoon could reach 70 km/h of average in plain in the night with winds gusting to more than 100 km/h. On the heights, the average wind is expected to 90 km/h with gusts to 120 km/h.

The trough of 3 to 4 metres could be registered Atlantic side.

A gradual return to normal is envisaged from the night of Sunday to Monday.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111355
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20120811
134630 1318N 05732W 9769 00315 0126 +239 +224 188019 020 017 003 00
134700 1318N 05730W 9771 00314 0126 +238 +227 187020 020 016 003 00
134730 1318N 05729W 9767 00318 0128 +235 +232 188020 020 017 003 00
134800 1318N 05727W 9774 00312 0128 +235 +233 184020 020 011 004 00
134830 1318N 05725W 9770 00316 0128 +235 +234 183018 019 012 004 00
134900 1318N 05724W 9772 00315 0129 +235 +234 177019 019 014 003 00
134930 1318N 05722W 9768 00319 0129 +230 +230 172017 019 013 005 01
135000 1318N 05721W 9770 00316 0129 +234 +234 170017 017 011 006 03
135030 1317N 05719W 9767 00320 0129 +230 +230 167015 017 006 004 05
135100 1316N 05720W 9772 00317 0130 +235 +231 169014 014 009 004 00
135130 1315N 05720W 9770 00318 0130 +235 +231 171014 015 016 004 00
135200 1313N 05721W 9772 00316 0129 +235 +232 172015 015 017 004 00
135230 1312N 05721W 9771 00316 0129 +235 +232 170015 015 014 004 00
135300 1311N 05722W 9770 00318 0129 +235 +229 172014 015 017 003 00
135330 1309N 05722W 9771 00316 0129 +235 +228 172014 015 017 002 00
135400 1308N 05723W 9771 00317 0130 +235 +228 177013 013 015 003 00
135430 1307N 05724W 9769 00319 0130 +239 +220 181014 015 011 004 00
135500 1305N 05724W 9769 00318 0129 +239 +223 177015 015 011 003 00
135530 1304N 05725W 9760 00328 0133 +238 +220 184013 014 009 005 00
135600 1302N 05725W 9763 00333 0139 +240 +212 183012 014 010 004 00
$$

[Portastorm]

Can any of this system possibly find it's way into the Gulf and spin up into a cyclone?

Possible? Yes. Likely? No. In fact, such a scenario appears highly unlikely at this time. The NHC and most private sector mets who are active on our board (and others) believe this system won't survive much longer. It's barely a closed low right now and it is heading into some major-league wind shear which will likely rip it apart. With no vertical organization the low level easterlies will probably move it along well south of the Gulf and into Central America.

The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111406
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20120811
135630 1301N 05726W 9772 00326 0141 +238 +225 177010 011 008 003 00
135700 1259N 05727W 9766 00333 0144 +238 +220 187009 009 008 003 00
135730 1257N 05728W 9772 00329 0145 +238 +227 191008 008 006 005 00
135800 1255N 05728W 9769 00331 0145 +236 +231 185007 008 005 005 00
135830 1254N 05729W 9770 00331 0145 +239 +224 191008 009 008 005 00
135900 1252N 05730W 9770 00332 0145 +239 +219 211009 010 006 005 00
135930 1250N 05731W 9770 00331 0144 +240 +214 212012 012 009 004 00
140000 1248N 05731W 9771 00329 0143 +239 +218 213013 014 013 003 00
140030 1247N 05732W 9771 00330 0143 +237 +220 209013 015 014 003 00
140100 1245N 05733W 9770 00331 0144 +235 +225 210012 012 015 003 03
140130 1243N 05734W 9771 00328 0143 +235 +225 186011 012 010 005 03
140200 1244N 05736W 9765 00335 0144 +235 +224 178016 017 006 005 00
140230 1246N 05737W 9771 00330 0145 +236 +222 179016 017 009 003 00
140300 1247N 05739W 9771 00330 0144 +239 +218 180017 017 013 002 00
140330 1249N 05740W 9771 00330 0145 +239 +218 177016 017 011 003 00
140400 1250N 05742W 9770 00330 0145 +239 +219 168015 015 010 004 00
140430 1252N 05743W 9770 00330 0144 +240 +207 159015 016 011 003 00
140500 1253N 05745W 9772 00329 0144 +241 +216 159015 016 014 003 00
140530 1255N 05746W 9772 00328 0143 +235 +232 165014 015 011 003 00
140600 1256N 05748W 9770 00329 0143 +237 +231 167013 014 014 002 00
$$

[SouthDadeFish]

*Below is my analysis. This is not a professional analysis, but simply my opinion*

TRMM recently made a nice pass, but TD 7 remains poorly organized. Here is the 37 GHz color, which shows little, if anything, in the way of banding:



And here is the 85 GHz Horizontal, which also shows a disorganized storm:



Not only is it disorganized, but there is very little convection. This disorganized pattern is being confirmed be recon.

[CourierPR]

Do I detect banding on latest satellite pic?

[RL3AO]

I really do think this will open up into a wave over the next 36 hours. My guess is it will be something we track all the way into Central America. Maybe it can start to consolidate before crashing into CA but I'd give it a 70% chance of never getting named.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Do I detect banding on latest satellite pic?

I don't see banding on conventional satellite imagery nor microwave imagery.

[RL3AO]

AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20120811
140630 1258N 05749W 9771 00328 0142 +235 +231 166014 015 011 003 00
140700 1259N 05751W 9771 00327 0142 +238 +225 163015 016 008 004 00
140730 1301N 05752W 9771 00327 0141 +242 +217 166014 014 013 005 00
140800 1302N 05754W 9769 00328 0140 +238 +219 165014 015 018 004 00
140830 1303N 05755W 9767 00328 0140 +235 +234 166016 016 016 003 00
140900 1305N 05757W 9771 00328 0139 +240 +225 168015 016 017 003 03
140930 1306N 05758W 9781 00311 0131 +242 +225 170013 014 008 004 00
141000 1306N 05800W 9773 00312 0125 +241 +222 174013 013 013 003 00
141030 1306N 05802W 9772 00312 0125 +240 +229 177013 013 011 003 00
141100 1306N 05803W 9770 00314 0124 +239 +232 177013 013 015 002 00
141130 1306N 05805W 9770 00313 0124 +239 +228 177012 012 015 004 03
141200 1306N 05807W 9769 00313 0124 +238 +233 176011 012 010 004 00
141230 1306N 05808W 9771 00312 0124 +239 +229 174011 011 016 002 00
141300 1306N 05810W 9770 00313 0124 +240 +228 175011 011 009 003 00
141330 1306N 05811W 9771 00313 0124 +240 +228 172011 011 014 003 00
141400 1306N 05813W 9771 00313 0124 +240 +226 173011 011 013 002 00
141430 1305N 05815W 9772 00312 0125 +240 +225 173010 011 010 002 00
141500 1305N 05816W 9772 00311 0124 +240 +222 172011 011 013 002 00
141530 1305N 05818W 9772 00312 0125 +237 +225 176010 011 013 002 00
141600 1305N 05819W 9771 00313 0125 +239 +224 178011 011 009 004 00

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111425
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20120811
141630 1305N 05821W 9772 00312 0124 +235 +230 179010 011 010 003 00
141700 1305N 05822W 9772 00313 0125 +235 +232 183010 011 014 002 00
141730 1305N 05824W 9770 00314 0125 +230 +230 192009 010 011 004 01
141800 1304N 05826W 9774 00309 0125 +230 +230 187009 010 008 003 01
141830 1304N 05827W 9769 00312 0125 +230 +230 196008 009 008 004 01
141900 1304N 05829W 9775 00308 0125 +230 +230 183008 009 012 002 01
141930 1304N 05830W 9764 00317 0125 +230 +230 183006 007 011 002 01
142000 1304N 05832W 9770 00312 0125 +230 +230 179006 006 011 003 01
142030 1303N 05833W 9774 00309 0124 +230 +230 192005 006 011 003 01
142100 1303N 05835W 9769 00313 0124 +235 +235 188003 004 009 003 00
142130 1303N 05837W 9770 00312 0124 +235 +235 178004 005 009 002 00
142200 1303N 05838W 9770 00313 0124 +230 +230 176006 008 009 004 01
142230 1303N 05840W 9773 00309 0124 +230 +230 182007 008 016 002 01
142300 1302N 05841W 9764 00320 0125 +234 +234 179007 008 014 001 00
142330 1302N 05843W 9770 00311 0124 +235 +228 135003 008 014 001 00
142400 1302N 05845W 9773 00309 0123 +239 +224 130005 007 012 003 00
142430 1302N 05846W 9770 00312 0124 +237 +225 106006 008 012 002 00
142500 1302N 05848W 9772 00310 0124 +235 +224 084006 008 009 002 00
142530 1301N 05849W 9771 00311 0124 +235 +221 093006 007 009 002 00
142600 1301N 05851W 9772 00311 0124 +235 +220 108005 006 012 001 00
$$
;

[Vandymit]

Bye bye 7. Thanks shear!

[floridasun78]

not td any more

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL WAVE...SQUALLY
WEATHER STILL LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 58.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE...BARBADOS...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY IN SQUALLS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN ROUTINE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATWOAT AND WMO HEADER
ABNT20 KNHC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

REMNANTS OF SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION
HAS OBSERVED SHARP WIND SHIFTS AT AN ALTITUDE OF 1000 FT...BUT IT
HAS BEEN UNABLE TO LOCATE A PERSISTENT AND WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A
TROPICAL WAVE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.
THE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND
ADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED.

THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED
OF 22 KT. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR
THEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 13.3N 58.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[floridasun78]

859
WTNT22 KNHC 111437
TCMAT2

REMNANTS OF SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012
1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF FRANCE...BARBADOS...AND ST. LUCIA HAVE
DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 58.9W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 58.9W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 58.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111435
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20120811
142630 1301N 05853W 9770 00312 0124 +235 +223 107005 006 008 003 00
142700 1301N 05854W 9772 00311 0124 +234 +226 094005 005 009 003 03
142730 1300N 05856W 9768 00313 0123 +235 +230 078007 008 012 002 00
142800 1300N 05858W 9769 00312 0123 +235 +227 077007 008 013 002 00
142830 1300N 05859W 9780 00303 0123 +237 +226 081008 009 006 004 03
142900 1301N 05900W 9761 00322 0125 +233 +231 096009 010 017 001 00
142930 1302N 05901W 9776 00308 0125 +237 +228 103011 011 017 001 00
143000 1304N 05902W 9760 00326 0129 +236 +228 097011 011 013 002 00
143030 1306N 05903W 9673 00407 0127 +234 +220 100012 012 014 002 00
143100 1307N 05904W 9370 00687 0136 +215 +206 116013 013 015 002 00
143130 1309N 05904W 9027 01019 0147 +194 +191 120011 013 014 000 00
143200 1311N 05905W 8669 01367 0143 +176 +172 121013 015 009 002 00
143230 1313N 05906W 8333 01705 0138 +167 +143 123019 020 009 002 00
143300 1315N 05907W 7991 02065 0134 +153 +126 122020 021 009 002 00
143330 1317N 05908W 7654 02422 0123 +135 +093 127022 022 018 002 00
143400 1319N 05909W 7348 02760 0112 +119 +085 121023 025 022 005 00
143430 1321N 05910W 7023 03147 0106 +108 +062 102019 022 013 002 00
143500 1322N 05911W 6739 03496 0114 +084 +040 087018 019 014 001 00
143530 1324N 05912W 6484 03816 0120 +062 +029 084016 017 005 003 03
143600 1326N 05913W 6249 04115 0126 +041 +009 082016 019 002 004 00

Mission over.

[RL3AO]

[floridasun78]

this going bad season for tropical system because pre El Nino weather event that causing alot shear asnd dry air in tropical

[RL3AO]

I really do think this will open up into a wave over the next 36 hours. My guess is it will be something we track all the way into Central America. Maybe it can start to consolidate before crashing into CA but I'd give it a 70% chance of never getting named.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I meant next 36 minutes...minor typo.

[cycloneye]

this going bad season for tropical system because pre elnino weather event that causing alot shear asnd dry air in tropical

However,the experts like NOAA,Klotzbach/Gray and TSR increased their numbers on their August forecasts.

[Vandymit]

Im sure systems will attempt to form (like td 7). I think the pattern is showing that the conditions will be hostile. So the "experts" may get storm formations but those storms may encounter tough conditions throughout the basin.