ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145304
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Recon

#901 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:08 am

Well,a mission has been tasked for Tuesday with plane departing at 9:00 AM EDT.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 13 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-087

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72--
A. 14/1700Z
B. AFXXX 0207A INVEST
C. 14/1300Z
D. 15.5N 83.0W
E. 14/1630Z TO 14/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#902 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:27 am

It would appear that the possibility exists that the former TD #7 will have an impact on Texas after all! Guess we better watch. NHC tasking a recon flight for tomorrow.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
Rgv20
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2466
Age: 38
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 5:42 pm
Location: Edinburg/McAllen Tx

#903 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:49 am

:uarrow: Indeed, here in Deep South Texas we should start to see some increase moisture by this weekend. :D
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#904 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:04 pm

do you all see this becoming invest? because their planing send plane to ex7
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145304
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#905 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:52 pm

Up to 20%

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ARE MOVING OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA
AND JAMAICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR
20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#906 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:03 pm

They put it back up on the floater. Getting interesting again...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#907 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:05 pm

I don't think we'll see any development in the Caribbean and recon will almost certainly be cancelled tomorrow. Nothing to be concerned about as far as I can see. And I'm a bit doubtful that any significant moisture from the remnants will make it to TX.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145304
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#908 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:06 pm

18z Best Track

AL, 07, 2012081318, , BEST, 0, 148N, 765W, 30, 1008, WV

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#909 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:07 pm

Looks like center has reformed between 15 and 16.
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#910 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:12 pm

ozonepete wrote:Looks like center has reformed between 15 and 16.


I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation. It's far weaker than it was east of the Caribbean.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#911 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:Looks like center has reformed between 15 and 16.


I don't see any evidence of a surface circulation. It's far weaker than it was east of the Caribbean.


I should have said reforming; I can't be sure it's closed off since it's under convection but I see a twist to the inflow from west and south sides.

Since it's moving into very low shear zone now and SSTs are so high and little dry air, what are the inhibiting factors that you see wxman?
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#912 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:21 pm

Shear is still quite significant across the disturbance. I don't see any low clouds moving from west to east. I see some east-west oriented low clouds but they seem to be moving along with the easterly trades. Observations indicate ENE flow in advance of the disturbance to the southwest.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#913 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:25 pm

But it's moving into very low shear as we speak...

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#914 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:28 pm

I saw the shear graphics. I'm not impressed by what I see on satellite or in surface obs. I calculate a west movement of 20 kts in the past 24 hrs. That would put the wave axis inland into Honduras/Nicaragua by mid day tomorrow.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#915 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:32 pm

wxman57 wrote:I saw the shear graphics. I'm not impressed by what I see on satellite or in surface obs.


I'm not that impressed either... yet. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#916 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:I saw the shear graphics. I'm not impressed by what I see on satellite or in surface obs. I calculate a west movement of 20 kts in the past 24 hrs. That would put the wave axis inland into Honduras/Nicaragua by mid day tomorrow.


OK, I've got to ask ... I hear what you're saying and I know you've been honking on the fact that this system won't amount to much if anything ... and it'll move into CA, but why have many Texas NWSFOs been talking about the remnants of this system impacting Texas later this week?
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#917 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:44 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I saw the shear graphics. I'm not impressed by what I see on satellite or in surface obs. I calculate a west movement of 20 kts in the past 24 hrs. That would put the wave axis inland into Honduras/Nicaragua by mid day tomorrow.


OK, I've got to ask ... I hear what you're saying and I know you've been honking on the fact that this system won't amount to much if anything ... and it'll move into CA, but why have many Texas NWSFOs been talking about the remnants of this system impacting Texas later this week?


Because the GFS had been moving "something" northward from the BoC late this weekend and early next week. The 12Z GFS does it again, but stops the moisture south of Texas in about a week. Question is - will the weak trof across the NW Gulf coast later this week draw any moisture northward from the BoC? None of the weather service offices is saying a TC will move into Texas, just possibly some moisture from the wave.

The other tropical wave (one that we've tracked from Africa) now in the southwestern Gulf looks quite a bit more impressive than Seven, by the way. It's moving slowly northward toward Texas now.
0 likes   

Shuriken

#918 Postby Shuriken » Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:50 pm

It looks awful today. (It's ironic that the floater is back, and ex-7 is back up to 20% while looking like garbage, whereas it was much better-looking yesterday.)

"Paging 'Bones' McCoy! There's a patient in the infirmary with a fork in his back!"
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#919 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:51 pm

Bones says that while not completely dead, Seven is on life support and vital signs are fading.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2907
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: ATL: SEVEN - Remnants

#920 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:57 pm

The remnants of 7 may be looking pathetic, but 93L holds the real trophy for looking like garbage. 93L's cloudtops are scattered and have not cooled in days. :P
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests