ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Jevo]

oz GFS +153 .... again its 153 hours.. a WHOLE bunch can change

[Bocadude85]

156HR landfall Southeast Florida

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical156.gif

[ROCK]

glad to see someone taking over the GFS model posting duties.....

Don't you dare think you can escape your duties of posting the GFS. Get back to work Sir!

Anyways...this GFS looks pretty bad for South Florida if has enough time to get stronger

ok,,here is something cooler than the GFS.....00Z NOGAPS....

out 84hrs....been sinking south last 4 runs.....slowly it will catch on to the GFS....eventually...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Vortex]

H+156 landfall southern fl-

[WeatherEmperor]

considering the timeframe, the run to run consistency is rather impressive. any storm in the florida straits has potential to really crank but no assurance of doing so. remember ernesto (version 2006) accomplished nothing strength-wise on its trip over the straits.

I was waiting for somebody to bring this up. To add to this, if 94L spends more time over water compared to Ernesto 2006, the end result could easily be a Hurricane for South Florida. Land interaction will be very critical for 94L's eventual strength.

[Jevo]

0z GFS +159 Gotta love it... Take it with a grain of salt, but keep an eye

[Vortex]

H162 intensifying still riding coast near WPB

[Bocadude85]

162Hr riding up the Fla east coast

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif

[floridasun78]

you know here in miami weather man are starting but this on news as start headline news so starting worry here their show models runs that show us in cone even forecast show bad weather here for weekend good night i check after work

[Jevo]

yeah 100+ hours for a system that hasn't formed yet it kind of a stretch for beginning to worry.. Keep a watchful eye, but don't go clearing the Publix shelvs of SPAM yet.

[Bocadude85]

174HR still riding the coast.. heading for Georgia coast

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif

[psyclone]

considering the timeframe, the run to run consistency is rather impressive. any storm in the florida straits has potential to really crank but no assurance of doing so. remember ernesto (version 2006) accomplished nothing strength-wise on its trip over the straits.

I was waiting for somebody to bring this up. To add to this, if 94L spends more time over water compared to Ernesto 2006, the end result could easily be a Hurricane for South Florida. Land interaction will be very critical for 94L's eventual strength.

In addition, as we can see from this run vs the 18z, a small longitude variation can make the difference between running one coast vs the other or avoiding the peninsula altogether. clearly there's potential but there's a great deal of uncertainty too... then again that's always the case to some degree and that's why we're here!

[Bocadude85]

180HR inland near Jacksonville

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical180.gif

[SeminoleWind]

Kinda Hurricane Davidish there
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:David_1979_track.png

[northjaxpro]

94L may pull a track similar to Hurricane Cleo in 1964

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo

[blp]

With the continued east trend I just don't see how this keeps avoiding Hispaniola. I think the 6z will have it go right over and greatly weaken it.

[Bocadude85]

I know I said this earlier but I think Hurricane Cleo is a great analog for the storm the GFS is showing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png

[Bocadude85]

With the continued east trend I just don't see how this keeps avoiding Hispaniola. I think the 6z will have it go right over and greatly weaken it.

Continued east trend? This run the system was further south of Hispanola.. hence why it was a stronger system.. and the 18z GFS had this riding the west coast of Fla.

[Hurricaneman]

One thing the models are not taking into account is the current south of due west movement, which in the long run could be important

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

One thing the models are not taking into account is the current south of due west movement, which in the long run could be important

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yeah it dropped alot today......hauling right long the 15N marker....if it comes in south it could miss the weakness. Just a possibility....hard to go against the GFS now with all runs right around the same area....