ATL: ISAAC - Models

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Jevo
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#661 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:21 pm

oz GFS +153 .... again its 153 hours.. a WHOLE bunch can change

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#662 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:22 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#663 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
ROCK wrote:glad to see someone taking over the GFS model posting duties..... :lol:


Don't you dare think you can escape your duties of posting the GFS. Get back to work Sir! :grrr:

Anyways...this GFS looks pretty bad for South Florida if has enough time to get stronger



ok,,here is something cooler than the GFS.....00Z NOGAPS.... :lol: :lol:

out 84hrs....been sinking south last 4 runs.....slowly it will catch on to the GFS....eventually...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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#664 Postby Vortex » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:22 pm

H+156 landfall southern fl-
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#665 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:22 pm

psyclone wrote:considering the timeframe, the run to run consistency is rather impressive. any storm in the florida straits has potential to really crank but no assurance of doing so. remember ernesto (version 2006) accomplished nothing strength-wise on its trip over the straits.


I was waiting for somebody to bring this up. To add to this, if 94L spends more time over water compared to Ernesto 2006, the end result could easily be a Hurricane for South Florida. Land interaction will be very critical for 94L's eventual strength.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#666 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:23 pm

0z GFS +159 Gotta love it... Take it with a grain of salt, but keep an eye

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#667 Postby Vortex » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:24 pm

H162 intensifying still riding coast near WPB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#668 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:24 pm

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#669 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:25 pm

you know here in miami weather man are starting but this on news as start headline news so starting worry here their show models runs that show us in cone even forecast show bad weather here for weekend good night i check after work
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#670 Postby Jevo » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:27 pm

yeah 100+ hours for a system that hasn't formed yet it kind of a stretch for beginning to worry.. Keep a watchful eye, but don't go clearing the Publix shelvs of SPAM yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#671 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:28 pm

174HR still riding the coast.. heading for Georgia coast

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical162.gif
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Re: Re:

#672 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:29 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
psyclone wrote:considering the timeframe, the run to run consistency is rather impressive. any storm in the florida straits has potential to really crank but no assurance of doing so. remember ernesto (version 2006) accomplished nothing strength-wise on its trip over the straits.


I was waiting for somebody to bring this up. To add to this, if 94L spends more time over water compared to Ernesto 2006, the end result could easily be a Hurricane for South Florida. Land interaction will be very critical for 94L's eventual strength.

In addition, as we can see from this run vs the 18z, a small longitude variation can make the difference between running one coast vs the other or avoiding the peninsula altogether. clearly there's potential but there's a great deal of uncertainty too... then again that's always the case to some degree and that's why we're here!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#673 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:30 pm

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#674 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:32 pm

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#675 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:33 pm

94L may pull a track similar to Hurricane Cleo in 1964

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Cleo
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#676 Postby blp » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:33 pm

With the continued east trend I just don't see how this keeps avoiding Hispaniola. I think the 6z will have it go right over and greatly weaken it.
Last edited by blp on Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#677 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:33 pm

I know I said this earlier but I think Hurricane Cleo is a great analog for the storm the GFS is showing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cleo_1964_track.png
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#678 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:35 pm

blp wrote:With the continued east trend I just don't see how this keeps avoiding Hispaniola. I think the 6z will have it go right over and greatly weaken it.



Continued east trend? This run the system was further south of Hispanola.. hence why it was a stronger system.. and the 18z GFS had this riding the west coast of Fla.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#679 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:38 pm

One thing the models are not taking into account is the current south of due west movement, which in the long run could be important

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#680 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 20, 2012 11:41 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:One thing the models are not taking into account is the current south of due west movement, which in the long run could be important

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yeah it dropped alot today......hauling right long the 15N marker....if it comes in south it could miss the weakness. Just a possibility....hard to go against the GFS now with all runs right around the same area....
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