ATL: ISAAC - Models

[JPmia]

According to that set up, how further west do you think Isaac can go?

well based on the current run it goes inland around the Appalachicola area.. btw, I'm not sure of the intensity on the GFS at that moment, but landfalling major hurricanes are rather rare in the Big Bend region of Florida.

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[Jevo]

Either way this scenario doesn't bode well for the Keys.. Dirty side of the storm in the Keys and metro dade/broward...

There is a better shot of the CONUS landfall at 138 and 141

18z GFS +138 SW Dade County / Upper Keys




18z GFS +141 Inland over the Everglades encompassing Dade, Broward, and Lee counties

[bamajammer4eva]

Landfall Tallahassee

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=177

[Dean4Storms]

Pretty safe to say at this point that a Florida Peninsula or Panhandle landfall are the biggest bets. But stay tuned!

[Jevo]

Landfall Tallahassee

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=177

3rd or 4th landfall... lets not forget about our friends in Haiti, Cuba, or South Florida

[SeminoleWind]

either way would be a pretty big rain and tornado threat up through Florida for a few days.

[Meteorcane]

Really how well this thing is able to skirt the major islands will be very interesting as it can probably be the difference between a Cat.3 cane and a low end cane/strong T.S. when/if it comes reenters water (assuming it survives).

[MGC]

Wonder when the gulfstream is going to fly? Once that data gets fed to the models to determine the strength/position of the Bermuda ridge, we'll have a much better idea where Isaac will end up. I just hope this don't turn into another Ivan with the models trending left with every run......MGC

[JPmia]

I heard this Thursday

[SunnyThoughts]

Wonder when the gulfstream is going to fly? Once that data gets fed to the models to determine the strength/position of the Bermuda ridge, we'll have a much better idea where Isaac will end up. I just hope this don't turn into another Ivan with the models trending left with every run......MGC

I believe I read where they will fly on Thursday. I could be wrong though, it might be tomorrow. I know they flew the plane to Barbados.

[Evil Jeremy]

Word is gulfstream is on thursday.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wonder when the gulfstream is going to fly? Once that data gets fed to the models to determine the strength/position of the Bermuda ridge, we'll have a much better idea where Isaac will end up. I just hope this don't turn into another Ivan with the models trending left with every run......MGC

Via Plan of the Day for tomorrow:

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
B. A NOAA P-3 MISSION AT 23/2000Z AND 24/0800Z.
C. A G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AT 23/1730Z.

[weatherSnoop]

Landfall Tallahassee

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=177

3rd or 4th landfall... lets not forget about our friends in Haiti, Cuba, or South Florida

Not to mention, Tallahassee is inland

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hard to go against the gfs thus far this season, god can't believe i just said that Strength wise will lean more towards the Euro right now. Hard to go against what the season has been like so far. Yea I know things change but lets see what the eastern carib will prove. The only thing I can see that could change with the GFS runs is the strength of the se us/bahamas ridge. Think it will build in more towrds the west and somewhat stronger than shown thus push Isaac further west in future runs. Of course this only is my opinion so we will see what happens.

[SunnyThoughts]

With all those missions, by Friday night the NHC should have a pretty darn good handle on the synoptic patterns and how they will influence Isaac.

[KBBOCA]

With all those missions, by Friday night the NHC should have a pretty darn good handle on the synoptic patterns and how they will influence Isaac.

Are this many missions normal? Sorry if the question is a silly one, I don't follow recon so closely, but this seems like a lot of missions for a storm that's still so far from the U.S.? Has the research budget been beefed up, or is the frequency of flights any indication of how seriously this threat is viewed?

[SunnyThoughts]

With all those missions, by Friday night the NHC should have a pretty darn good handle on the synoptic patterns and how they will influence Isaac.

Are this many missions normal? Sorry if the question is a silly one, I don't follow recon so closely, but this seems like a lot of missions for a storm that's still so far from the U.S.? Has the research budget been beefed up, or is the frequency of flights any indication of how seriously this threat is viewed?

I'm no expert so I honestly don't know the true answer to your question, but I have an idea it has to do with how serious they think the threat is with a system. Just my opinion, like I said I have no way of knowing for sure.

[JPmia]

With all those missions, by Friday night the NHC should have a pretty darn good handle on the synoptic patterns and how they will influence Isaac.

Are this many missions normal? Sorry if the question is a silly one, I don't follow recon so closely, but this seems like a lot of missions for a storm that's still so far from the U.S.? Has the research budget been beefed up, or is the frequency of flights any indication of how seriously this threat is viewed?

I'm no expert so I honestly don't know the true answer to your question, but I have an idea it has to do with how serious they think the threat is with a system. Just my opinion, like I said I have no way of knowing for sure.

I think that is about right.. by Friday we will have the various recon missions included in model runs and we will be near the 72 hour window where NHC forecasts becomes very accurate

[Evil Jeremy]

Word is gulfstream is on thursday.

[Aric Dunn]

recon data will be imputed for tonight's 00z model runs.